Coronavirus (2022) thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
  • Start date Start date
marcus said:
Its incredible. A week it so ago this thread fucked off to page 2. I was delighted. I thought it was a sign of covid generally fucking off in life, which for most it has i think.

but no. One or two loons on here wont let that happen. Whilst covid can make them feel important and relevant theyll keep banging on about it .

weird
As
Fuck
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He says, while bumping the thread.
 
meltonblue said:
I remember reading that article, they buried the more optimistic model in the same article too, which was already looking more like the more realistic one at the time anyway.

The one caveat is I do wonder how much pressure the government put themselves on the media to go with the worst case as by doing that they increased the likelihood of them not having to implement any restrictions themselves. If you take December, there was a huge shift in behaviour with Christmas parties being cancelled all over as well as things like increased mask compliance. That did also allow for the extra few weeks to get more booster jabs done.

Doesn’t make it right in terms of reporting though.
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I highly doubt the government and the Guardian have a dialogue :)

Possibly an even more disgusting thing in there recently was an opinion piece by one of their regulars (can’t remember who) which said ‘Johnson has got lucky with Omicron being so mild’. The writer was clearly gutted that thousands weren’t dying each day as that would have been bad for Johnson.
 
marcus said:
Its incredible. A week it so ago this thread fucked off to page 2. I was delighted. I thought it was a sign of covid generally fucking off in life, which for most it has i think.

but no. One or two loons on here wont let that happen. Whilst covid can make them feel important and relevant theyll keep banging on about it .

weird
As
Fuck
Click to expand...
Quite a few pages in the last couple of days.
Had to have a look thinking there was a new variant knocking about,thankfully not though.
 
meltonblue said:
And I disagree. Doing a projection with that assumption (and the caveat of the severity is very clearly called out) is one of the factors that led to the increased speed of the booster rollout, which has already shown to be worth it.
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The modelling stated it took account of the booster roll out.

I could have produced a report and filled it full of caveats and then said I was right. It still wouldn't mean I was.

Anyway I have wasted enough time on this subject, I feel some on here just argue for arguments sake which is pointless for all concerned. We will have to agree to disagree on the modelling.

You and others will no doubt be pleased to find that this will be my last post on covid forum. No doubt we will cross swords on other topics.
Have a good day Melton.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
The modelling stated it took account of the booster roll out.

I could have produced a report and filled it full of caveats and then said I was right. It still wouldn't mean I was.

Anyway I have wasted enough time on this subject, I feel some on here just argue for arguments sake which is pointless for all concerned. We will have to agree to disagree on the modelling.

You and others will no doubt be pleased to find that this will be my last post on covid forum. No doubt we will cross swords on other topics.
Have a good day Melton.
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It took account for the booster rollout at the time, not the accelerated version of it.

Im sure some are arguing for the sake of arguing (it is an Internet forum after all!), I have a slightly vested interested in it because the company I work for has been involved in the vaccine rollout since the beginning and we have some inputs into SAGE, albeit not on the modelling side of it though. As much as I will agree that there’s some aspects to the modelling that need a lot of work, I do think they’ve been misinterpreted a lot too and people seem to be taking just the models as the be all and end all of the discussions.

You’re perfectly entitled to your opinion with it and yours is probably closer to the consensus opinion nowadays than mine, not sure why you think I’d be pleased about you not commenting? It’s just a way of passing the time, thankfully I don’t think there is much need for most comments on this thread at the mo.
 
SWP's back said:
Because it was Omicron so of course it’s doing the heavy lifting in the sentence. It’s the whole point of the fucking sentence. IT WAS OMICRON. IT WAS NOT DELTA. South Africa already had a month of data on how severe (or should we say mild) it was. SAGE ignored that and lobbied for a lockdown before Christmas.

There’s literally no point talking about ‘what if it was a more severe strain’ as it was and there was data around showing that. Did you not post on this thread in November and December?
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Sage didn't lobby in any way though, not really, A couple ( at most ) of members on the SAGE panel suggested it. big difference.

And I think your underestimating how quickly this all happened. SA didn't have anything like a months worth of Data when some of SAGE were suggesting being careful at Christmas. The cases wave in SA didn't even start till 29th Nov, add the usual lags for hospitalisations and deaths then these sage members were making suggestions as the hospitalisation wave should have started to kick in over in SA.

At that point the only data out of SA was anecdotal ( albeit correct )
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
The modelling stated it took account of the booster roll out.

I could have produced a report and filled it full of caveats and then said I was right. It still wouldn't mean I was.

Anyway I have wasted enough time on this subject, I feel some on here just argue for arguments sake which is pointless for all concerned. We will have to agree to disagree on the modelling.

You and others will no doubt be pleased to find that this will be my last post on covid forum. No doubt we will cross swords on other topics.
Have a good day Melton.
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Sorry to hear about you departing this thread. You're right in all other respects. The models as produced in December were definately not worth the publication effort.
Let's have Denmark style modelling in future.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
So you’ve no problem with the modellers apart from with Omicron?

I don’t even know why we’re having this debate. It’s done with.

Maybe you should switch your ire to weather forecasters next time they predict 100mph winds and on.y 85mph ones arrive.
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Not even the modellers as they model what they’re told. My issue is whichever **** tried to wipe £3 trillion extra off the economy on shite variables/data and trying to convince the Govt to lockdown.

m But you’re right, it’s over. I didn’t start this particular argument anyway, I was only explaining why some people rightly say the models were well off.
 
SWP's back said:
Not even the modellers as they model what they’re told. My issue is whichever **** tried to wipe £3 trillion extra off the economy on shite variables/data and trying to convince the Govt to lockdown.

m But you’re right, it’s over. I didn’t start this particular argument anyway, I was only explaining why some people rightly say the models were well off.
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But weren’t used and seems an incredibly weird thing to get worked up over.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Sorry to hear about you departing this thread. You're right in all other respects. The models as produced in December were definately not worth the publication effort.
Let's have Denmark style modelling in future.
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Thankfully we had it this time too.
 
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