Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gray]

Don't ask me, ask FIFA.

I have emailed them.

 

[jimharri]

I have emailed them.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a reply!

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Think the irony is that the longer Ukraine holds out, the more chance it will mean everything being thrown at them.

I think you are right in that Putin would reduce Ukraine to ashes rather than retreat, but there are plenty of conventional weapons that he can use without resorting to nukes. It did actually cross my mind when russian forces rushed to secure the Chernobyl site as one of their primary objectives that they have potentially acquired the world's largest 'dirty bomb' if they blow that up on a day when the wind is blowing towards Berlin rather than Moscow.

 

[Ghandi's Flip Flops]

To be fair, I'm not an authority on this kind of thing but just some bloke sitting in a flat hundreds of miles from the main events. I can quite easily be wrong.

Also, I do think that the Russians probably have sufficient forces and firepower to prevail in the relatively short term, albeit probably after a much longer, harder fight and with far greater casualties than the political/military elite expected. However, that doesn't mean they eventually win, just that they'll occupy most of Ukraine at some point and install some kind of puppet government in Kyiv.

How they expect a pro-Russian government to retain power there in the longer term (apart, possibly, for some small territories in the east) is currently not remotely clear to me. Surely they can't keep huge numbers of troops stationed there indefinitely to fight an insurgency, and the willingness of the Ukrainians to keep fighting is plain for all to see.

Of course on stuff like this, I defer to people with a much greater knowledge of these types of military issues than I do. Mine is very much an amateur, layman's view.

As Iraq showed, it can be relatively easy to 'win' a war.
The hard part is keeping the peace afterwards.

 

[RadcliffeRick]

I have emailed them.

I think they only respond to brown envelopes

 

[Gray]

I think you are right in that Putin would reduce Ukraine to ashes rather than retreat, but there are plenty of conventional weapons that he can use without resorting to nukes. It did actually cross my mind when russian forces rushed to secure the Chernobyl site as one of their primary objectives that they have potentially acquired the world's largest 'dirty bomb' if they blow that up on a day when the wind is blowing towards Berlin rather than Moscow.

They want Chernobyl because it is a tourism money spinner, thousands visit there every year.

 

[Gray]

I think they only respond to brown envelopes

How much do you recomend?

 

[mackenzie]

I think you are right in that Putin would reduce Ukraine to ashes rather than retreat, but there are plenty of conventional weapons that he can use without resorting to nukes. It did actually cross my mind when russian forces rushed to secure the Chernobyl site as one of their primary objectives that they have potentially acquired the world's largest 'dirty bomb' if they blow that up on a day when the wind is blowing towards Berlin rather than Moscow.

Yeah, the Chernobyl seizure left me very worried.
As for nukes being used on Kyiv, I also doubt it but I think he will blitz the capital with anything else he has, if he has to.
We are dealing with the ego of an ageing, despotic KGB man who, if nothing else, wants a return to the old Soviet.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

As Iraq showed, it can be relatively easy to 'win' a war.
The hard part is keeping the peace afterwards.

That may be the strategic answer for the west. Stand back and let him take Ukraine, cripple Russia with sanctions, and let them bleed themselves to death fighting a guerilla war/insurgency for a couple of decades.

 

[RadcliffeRick]

How much do you recomend?

I think there is a sliding scale depending on what you want

 

[Scottyboi]

Zelenskyys verified twitter account is saying Turkey have agreed to ban passage of Russian warships into the black sea.

 

[br88]

An old guy turned up yesterday at the volunteer recruitment place. They told him that sadly you can barely walk...his answer was...but I can crawl!!!. What can you say??

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Yeah, the Chernobyl seizure left me very worried.
As for nukes being used on Kyiv, I also doubt it but I think he will blitz the capital with anything else he has, if he has to.
We are dealing with the ego of an ageing, despotic KGB man who, if nothing else, wants a return to the old Soviet.

I honestly don't know what to make of him at present. He's always been evil/despotic, but at the same time very calculated and to risk quoting trump 'clever'. What we have seen recently seems more unhinged and desperate. Interesting to note his lack of costume changes - I'm assuming he can afford more than one suit, shirt and tie, so he's either recording things in one day or just has a favourite Dr evil suit.

 

[Blue warrior]

What’s weird he’s paranoid of catching Covid but threatening Nukes in which he too would be vapourised his heads like a tin of broken biscuits.

 

[robbieh]

That may be the strategic answer for the west. Stand back and let him take Ukraine, cripple Russia with sanctions, and let them bleed themselves to death fighting a guerilla war/insurgency for a couple of decades.

I believe the occupation of Afghanistan brought the USSR to its knees.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Zelenskyys verified twitter account is saying Turkey have agreed to ban passage of Russian warships into the black sea.

I’d be very surprised if that’s true - fingers crossed though

 

[Blue warrior]

Zelenskyys verified twitter account is saying Turkey have agreed to ban passage of Russian warships into the black sea.

That could get tasty with Turkey being a NATO member if Russian war ships get aggressive.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Worried about Hungary being the sole country holding out on SWIFT. Orban is more or less a dictator too. Could he be covertly on Putins side?

No its Germany and Italy in the main.

 

[SWP's back]

Does anyone really know what Putin is trying to achieve? His stated motivation was to stop the Ukraine joining NATO. I can understand Russia not wanting NATO on their doorstep but how does moving your doorstep next door to existing NATO member countries satisfy that target?

For the millionth time, they already border two NATO countries.

 

[cleavers]

Zelenskyys verified twitter account is saying Turkey have agreed to ban passage of Russian warships into the black sea.

About 2 weeks too late unfortunately.