The Conservative Party

bluethrunthru said:
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Going to be fascinating watching that trend over the coming months. Neither leader is naturally charismatic, so it will be a question of whether Sunak’s technocratic approach over 23-24 can nudge the Conservative numbers up before the inevitable tax give away. At the same time, if the gap does close, Starmer will come under pressure to offer more than costed economic policies, particularly when that’s what’s on offer from Sunak. As I say, a ‘boring’, in comparison to recent years, yet fascinating time lies ahead.
 
Gabriel said:
Going to be fascinating watching that trend over the coming months. Neither leader is naturally charismatic, so it will be a question of whether Sunak’s technocratic approach over 23-24 can nudge the Conservative numbers up before the inevitable tax give away. At the same time, if the gap does close, Starmer will come under pressure to offer more than costed economic policies, particularly when that’s what’s on offer from Sunak. As I say, a ‘boring’, in comparison to recent years, yet fascinating time lies ahead.
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Think the Tories will narrow the gap but that Labour will get a working majority. I actually think that will be better for democracy in this country as it will be less likely Labour will embark on electoral reform if they get a huge majority.

We urgently need to break this destructive, unrepresentative cycle that has caused us such fundamental decline as a nation.
 
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The Party that removed Council funding that enabled them to run Youth Clubs are now complaining that there are too many kids hanging around on street corners with nothing to do.


So they plan to introduce stronger ASBO laws next week.

As sure ar night follows day the only thing the Tories can think of is to punish people.
 
And here's a Tory Council leader complaining that a private bus company is running only profitable services, just as Thatcher's 1985 Transport Act requires. And because of Tory austerity, councils have cut budgets for subsidising uneconomic bus routes.

www.shropshirestar.com

Arriva accused of 'focusing on profitable routes' amid rural bus criticism

The leader of Shropshire Council has criticised bus operator Arriva for "concentrating solely on profitable bus routes".
www.shropshirestar.com www.shropshirestar.com
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Think the Tories will narrow the gap but that Labour will get a working majority. I actually think that will be better for democracy in this country as it will be less likely Labour will embark on electoral reform if they get a huge majority.

We urgently need to break this destructive, unrepresentative cycle that has caused us such fundamental decline as a nation.
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Would agree with your prediction, though I’ve long thought that the Conservatives will wait for as long as possible before having the General Election, maybe even into January 2025. It could be a question of how much further Sunak can close that gap in the next 18 months, but I doubt it will be to the extent of a hung Parliament.
 
Gabriel said:
Would agree with your prediction, though I’ve long thought that the Conservatives will wait for as long as possible before having the General Election, maybe even into January 2025. It could be a question of how much further Sunak can close that gap in the next 18 months, but I doubt it will be to the extent of a hung Parliament.
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I think the fact the economy hasn’t imploded as many (including me) predicted will help as will the improving position in Ukraine (assuming that happens).

Think many of the red wall seats will be lost as the people there will have (inevitably) seen no discernible improvement in their lives, or worse and the issue of immigration (for them) will have got worse.

As ever it will be about a sixth of the seats in the country, the likes of Stroud, Bury (N&S) and Gedling (none of which I would classify as ‘red wall’) that will determine the outcome.

What an absolute fucking joke of a system.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
I think the fact the economy hasn’t imploded as many (including me) predicted will help as will the improving position in Ukraine (assuming that happens).

Think many of the red wall seats will be lost as the people there will have (inevitably) seen no discernible improvement in their lives, or worse and the issue of immigration (for them) will have got worse.

As ever it will be about a sixth of the seats in the country, the likes of Stroud, Bury (N&S) and Gedling (none of which I would classify as ‘red wall’) that will determine the outcome.

What an absolute fucking joke of a system.
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The economy might not have imploded but it is stagnating, and neither of the main parties is willing to address the elephant in the room. That situation may change, as I have a feeling, no more than, that the situation in Ukraine might be over by the late summer, which would remove that as an excuse.

As for the electoral system, I don’t think there will ever be any serious willingness to change it.
 
Gabriel said:
Would agree with your prediction, though I’ve long thought that the Conservatives will wait for as long as possible before having the General Election, maybe even into January 2025. It could be a question of how much further Sunak can close that gap in the next 18 months, but I doubt it will be to the extent of a hung Parliament.
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I think they will go in November next year, maybe early December - it means the next govt start over Christmas which will be a nuisance, and I think they will be considering the weather in late January. If it's bad, are their voters going to go out to vote?
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I think they will go in November next year, maybe early December - it means the next govt start over Christmas which will be a nuisance, and I think they will be considering the weather in late January. If it's bad, are their voters going to go out to vote?
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You could well be right. If voter apathy still looks like being an important determinant in the scale of the outcome, though, then January ‘25 might be preferable. However, if things have improved by the autumn statement in late October ‘24, and Hunt is in a position to release the purse strings, then an election during Advent might be on the (Christmas) cards.
 
Gabriel said:
You could well be right. If voter apathy still looks like being an important determinant in the scale of the outcome, though, then January ‘25 might be preferable. However, if things have improved by the autumn statement in late October ‘24, and Hunt is in a position to release the purse strings, then an election during Advent might be on the (Christmas) cards.
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I thought they'd already announced tax cuts for next year (I think Sunak did last year?), so as you mentioned there will be announced bonanza which will only occur after the election.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I thought they'd already announced tax cuts for next year (I think Sunak did last year?), so as you mentioned there will be announced bonanza which will only occur after the election.
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Something smaller, but not negligible, will be given away before the election with the promise of much more to come. Sunak will want to have cut income tax by then so as to demonstrate that he delivers on what he promises, which is one reason why he is setting the bar quite low in terms of political ambition. It will then become a case of judge me by my record, even when that record is an uninspiring collection of B sides.
 
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Gabriel said:
As for the electoral system, I don’t think there will ever be any serious willingness to change it.
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I think the two main things holding us back as a country are the state of our electoral system and the state of our media.

If somehow we can find a way to make progress on these fronts we still have a chance to move forwards otherwise we'll continue to be a once powerful but increasingly backward country.

Turkey's don't vote for Christmas so the Conservative party will never do anything on that front; so per GDMs comments we have to hope that something in the next election cycle and/or parliament encourages the Labour party to change it's position.
 
threespires said:
I think the two main things holding us back as a country are the state of our electoral system and the state of our media.

If somehow we can find a way to make progress on these fronts we still have a chance to move forwards otherwise we'll continue to be a once powerful but increasingly backward country.

Turkey's don't vote for Christmas so the Conservative party will never do anything on that front; so per GDMs comments we have to hope that something in the next election cycle and/or parliament encourages the Labour party to change it's position.
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As long as the electoral system rewards either of the main protagonists with unlimited power, then neither will ever vote for something that dilutes it. That will only happen when others hold the balance of power and make legislated electoral reform a condition of their participation in any coalition, in my humble.

As for the media landscape, that will continue to become more fragmented and extreme, but there is no reason why all the parties could not agree to free the BBC from political influence, again enshrined in legislation.

That would just leave the horrible influence that the lobbyists wield…
 
Amongst the many things that piss me off about this Government, I hate the way an incoming PM seems to disregard any questionable decisions taken by their predecessors.

13 years of shite and it's like the post-calamity enquiries we used to have at work. "Nothing to do with me. I was on holiday." They're equally responsible for all the fuck-ups.
 
Idesofmarch69 said:
13 years of shite and it's like the post-calamity enquiries we used to have at work. "Nothing to do with me. I was on holiday." They're equally responsible for all the fuck-ups.
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Can’t excuse Sunak entirely, but I would cut him just a tiny amount of slack in that regard. He spent the whole of last summer warning all and sundry that Truss’ ideas would be a complete disaster, and it took less than 49 days for that to be confirmed.
 
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