The Title Race - 2023/24

How many points will be needed to win the league?

  • Total voters
    446
  • Poll closed .
Citizen of Legoland said:
Great player? Yes certainly. And I agree I would have preferred him to stay, but the club have to think medium to long term even at a risk to the short term. It’s worked fine in the past and will again.

But losing one player wouldn’t or shouldn’t make such a difference in a team like ours. It should also be remembered that he struggled at the beginning of his career at City too, it’s just what happens with great teams. Players leave and you try to replace them but surely you have to give the replacements time to find their feet too?

Be positive, blue.
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Agree. And he was peripheral for a lot of his time with us. Injuries were part of that but we managed just fine without him.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
This is all about opinion.

I’m entitled to mine and you’re entitled to yours.

In previous seasons - last year for example - there was a clear sense of what the team were trying to do, and a sense that it would eventually ‘click’. I just don’t get that this year, and our squad is also far weaker.

I don’t like to predict things based on blind hope and optimism.

And much like investing in the stock market, part performances are no indication of future results.
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That's fundamentally not true. We drew against Everton on NYE and the same problems existed as had been there all season up to that point. Lots of chances, and then cut through like a hot knife through butter. Then we won at Chelsea without looking very threatening before being robbed at the swamp. We were 2-0 down at home to Spurs before coming back and still looked likely to concede every time Spurs were in our half. We lost away at Spurs. But then things started to click and we won 14 of 15, including 12 in a row after the draw at Forest.

But there was still a lot of chopping and changing in that period. There was no real "click" in terms of lineup or formation. The Stones into midfield play came in quite late. He'd been injured in Jan and Feb iirc and in and out of the team. We'd tried all sorts of different combinations in that time.

Whilst we might not get our act together, I wouldn't say we're any different this season to last and we have had injuries/suspensions which were less of an excuse last campaign. It's too early to judge our signings. Fundamentally the fault doesn't lie with those players. We've been heading to a point at Arsenal, winning against Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs and Palace costing us 9pts. It's just a lack of control late on, which is easily fixed. We were dominant for large periods against Liverpool, Spurs and Palace.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
Congratulations, you win a gold star.

My point remains. He was our best player *in my opinion*.

Have you not seen the cavernous Gundogan-shaped hole in our team this season?
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We have to suck it up with regards to transfers. We were suckered because Bellingham and Gundogan wife were cunts who didn’t want Manchester City
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
This is all about opinion.

I’m entitled to mine and you’re entitled to yours.

In previous seasons - last year for example - there was a clear sense of what the team were trying to do, and a sense that it would eventually ‘click’. I just don’t get that this year, and our squad is also far weaker.

I don’t like to predict things based on blind hope and optimism.

And much like investing in the stock market, part performances are no indication of future results.
Click to expand...
I'd probably refer yourself to the title race thread from this time last year, where is was quite clear that there were a large number on here that thought it certainly wouldn't click

And the rest is literally history...
 
chris85mcfc said:
I'd probably refer yourself to the title race thread from this time last year, where is was quite clear that there were a large number on here that thought it certainly wouldn't click

And the rest is literally history...
Click to expand...

IMO this is a very different situation.

I obviously hope I’m proven completely wrong in May.
 
I believe we have a weaker squad this season. Especially with KDB being out for half of it. We haven't replaced Gundogan, Kovacic isn't anywhere near the player Gundog was for us. He just isnt that creative, hasn't scored a goal and infact I'm not sure why we even bought him. Clearly Nunes isn't good enough as yet as he doesn't get a start in a side that isn't performing. Doku is the only plus signing of the summer for me. With Haaland out we look impotent upfront. No one makes runs and only Foden is trying to play those clever little through balls that David Silva, KDB and Gundog did. Our defence also has costly mistakes in them every game.

All in all we look just like one of the other teams challenging for the top four. At times in games our attitude looks suspect, we aren't challenging for balls like we did last season, maybe it's just complacency , but to me we just don't look the same. Perhaps it s a lack of leader on the pitch, but something is a miss? I think we will safely qualify for top four but that's its this season league wise.
 
Silvatoure21 said:
Debruyne will add leadership once he gets back. That will also improve our midfield. Who knows, kova and nunes could get better too. They’ve been here 3 months, I’m not expecting miracles. Defense is the big question for me. Need Ake on the left stones at cb
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Problems at both corners of the defence if you ask me. Walker adds zero in the final third on the other end we have a liability defensively when Ake doesn't play. Sort out the defence get Kev back and we still have a chance.
 
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
 
youngbob said:
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
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Those saying (possibly correctly) that we aren’t as strong as last season are conspicuously failing to recognise that we probably won’t need to be.
 
youngbob said:
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
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18/19 we were on 44 pts after 19 games and 7 pts off Liverpool, IIRC. We were 10 pts off Liverpool before Southampton away.
 
alexmcity said:
18/19 we were on 44 pts after 19 games and 7 pts off Liverpool, IIRC. We were 10 pts off Liverpool before Southampton away.
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Yep. Games 18 and 19 were those losses to Chelsea and Palace. So we were even further behind with less time to go against a stronger team, one of the strongest in Premier League history. Thankfully we were up to the task that year, being incredibly strong ourselves. We're weaker than we were then, and arguably in 22/23 too, but as @gordondaviesmoustache pointed out, we might not need to be that strong to retain the league this year.
 
youngbob said:
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
Click to expand...

The key point is certainly that our rivals aren't what they were. I said the same last week. We've dropped 9 points through goals conceded late on in games and yet are 5pts off top. In season where Liverpool were going toe to toe with us we'd be double figures behind them now and it would quite probably be game over for our title chances. But the other teams are all struggling. What's hurting more this campaign is the fact we're seeing Arsenal and Liverpool win late whilst we do the opposite! But the key point to observe is that we're ahead in all of these games. No one is playing us off the park. It's game management which is the issue. We shouldn't be in a position where we're continually struggling to see games through. Even against Luton we were frantic and backs against the wall. Usually we keep the ball comfortably and just pass it amongst ourselves until the final whistle. That's an easy thing for Pep to address and considering the injury/suspension issues we've had which is seeing us rely a little too much on the squad at an early stage, I'm staying positive.

If Liverpool v Arsenal ends in a draw then we'll be 6pts behind Arsenal with a game in hand and they still have to come to our place. No major drama just yet.
 
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