Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iassel]

The only thing happening this year is the Ukrainians hanging on
They're in no position to go on an offensive

Ukraine can only "win" by constantly eroding ruSSian forces, along with destroying industrial facilities in ruSSia, creating discontent and economic hardship

Well yes, this is the whole point unfortunately - sooner rather than later the appetite and/or ability to support a stalemate will die off and Ukraine will be forced to negotiate ‘peace’.

There is little prospect of outlasting Russia - Putin long ago took back the oligarchs’ funds and businesses to mass produce military needs and those who defy him are still dying pretty regularly.

He will expend their whole fortunes funding this war in return for letting them live in luxury still and Europe and possibly even the US can’t compete with that level of backing.

 

[mosssideblue]

Well yes, this is the whole point unfortunately - sooner rather than later the appetite and/or ability to support a stalemate will die off and Ukraine will be forced to negotiate ‘peace’.

There is little prospect of outlasting Russia - Putin long ago took back the oligarchs’ funds and businesses to mass produce military needs and those who defy him are still dying pretty regularly.

He will expend their whole fortunes funding this war in return for letting them live in luxury still and Europe and possibly even the US can’t compete with that level of backing.

Don't you think Russia is in financial crisis?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Well yes, this is the whole point unfortunately - sooner rather than later the appetite and/or ability to support a stalemate will die off and Ukraine will be forced to negotiate ‘peace’.

There is little prospect of outlasting Russia - Putin long ago took back the oligarchs’ funds and businesses to mass produce military needs and those who defy him are still dying pretty regularly.

He will expend their whole fortunes funding this war in return for letting them live in luxury still and Europe and possibly even the US can’t compete with that level of backing.

Always pro Russian.

 

[dickie davies]

Well yes, this is the whole point unfortunately - sooner rather than later the appetite and/or ability to support a stalemate will die off and Ukraine will be forced to negotiate ‘peace’.

There is little prospect of outlasting Russia - Putin long ago took back the oligarchs’ funds and businesses to mass produce military needs and those who defy him are still dying pretty regularly.

He will expend their whole fortunes funding this war in return for letting them live in luxury still and Europe and possibly even the US can’t compete with that level of backing.

Just because the lines aren't moving doesn't mean it's a stalemate
As I said, the Ukrainians will continue to erode the ruSSians
There will be a breaking point for ruSSia eventually

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Just because the lines aren't moving doesn't mean it's a stalemate
As I said, the Ukrainians will continue to erode the ruSSians
There will be a breaking point for ruSSia eventually

Air cover will help. F18s arriving soon . People like lassel always forget that after 2 years of all out war by Russia, they still don't have air superiority over Ukraine. Ukraine have also rendered Russia's Black Sea fleet virtually inoperable.

The west should be helping the Ukrainians hit Russian infrastructure, road bridges, rail power stations as well as oil refineries. Combine that with sending all Russians back to their shitty country and spending frozen Russian money on ukraine and Putin would be gone in a few months.

 

[Iassel]

Don't you think Russia is in financial crisis?

I mean do I think that the war is having a horrific effect on the Russian economy? Of course albeit China, India and the UAE are still happily keeping Russia afloat. As said though, Russia officially has over 100 billionaires, tens of thousands of ‘ultra wealthy’ and around 500,000 millionaires and these are the people funding the war with anyone who dissents quickly disposed of and their funds confiscated.

Of course it’s a finite ability to fund the war, the Russians gamble is that ‘the west’ won’t be willing to fund another 5-10 years of this and Zelenskyy has said many times we have to beat Russia, we won’t outlast them.

Always pro Russian

There is a huge difference between wanting Russia to win and discussing the reality of where things stand today. I don’t believe anyone outside Russia supports them getting Donbas and Crimea as at best it puts off for a few years us having to confront Russia elsewhere, be it in Ukraine again, or Moldova.

Just because the lines aren't moving doesn't mean it's a stalemate
As I said, the Ukrainians will continue to erode the ruSSians
There will be a breaking point for ruSSia eventually

Financially absolutely there will be a breaking point as discussed above, it isn’t going to be anytime soon though unfortunately.

From an ‘emotional’ perspective I think it’s extremely naive to believe that Russians will ever grow tired enough of this to stand up en masse and demand an end.

This is the country who just 80 years ago lost 27 million fighting and didn’t stand up and demand an end. Of course it was to our benefit that they were on our side then but now they’re not and they’re still the same people. Russias elderly are the kids/nieces/ nephews of those who died then and they’re deeply entrenched still in that mentality. The oldest ones being forced onto the battlefield now are their grandkids who grew up with that mindset indoctrinated into them by their parents who overwhelmingly support Putin and this war.

As we know, Russia is an oooooooooold country and their best youth got out long ago. As said before I work with 3 Russians here in Sweden and their parents in Moscow and St Petersburg who would be in their 50s now so young enough to know better still rabidly support the war.

Putin has been very clear that we won’t outlast Russia, and Zelenskyy agrees with him that we have to outright defeat them not expect to outlast them.

Of course we can hope that once Putin dies someone more sane succeeds him, but Putin has spent the past 5+ years completely isolated in a bunker, nobody is getting to him to end it anytime soon and once he dies there will be the mother of all power struggles to succeed him within his inner circle of oligarchs and ex FSB staff. The chance of someone sane enough to put a stop to this and bring Russia in from the cold winning out is pretty low…

 

[dickie davies]

Putin has been very clear that we won’t outlast Russia

If vlad has said that then I believe the exact opposite

 

[mosssideblue]

I mean do I think that the war is having a horrific effect on the Russian economy? Of course albeit China, India and the UAE are still happily keeping Russia afloat. As said though, Russia officially has over 100 billionaires, tens of thousands of ‘ultra wealthy’ and around 500,000 millionaires and these are the people funding the war with anyone who dissents quickly disposed of and their funds confiscated.

Of course it’s a finite ability to fund the war, the Russians gamble is that ‘the west’ won’t be willing to fund another 5-10 years of this and Zelenskyy has said many times we have to beat Russia, we won’t outlast them.


There is a huge difference between wanting Russia to win and discussing the reality of where things stand today. I don’t believe anyone outside Russia supports them getting Donbas and Crimea as at best it puts off for a few years us having to confront Russia elsewhere, be it in Ukraine again, or Moldova.


Financially absolutely there will be a breaking point as discussed above, it isn’t going to be anytime soon though unfortunately.

From an ‘emotional’ perspective I think it’s extremely naive to believe that Russians will ever grow tired enough of this to stand up en masse and demand an end.

This is the country who just 80 years ago lost 27 million fighting and didn’t stand up and demand an end. Of course it was to our benefit that they were on our side then but now they’re not and they’re still the same people. Russias elderly are the kids/nieces/ nephews of those who died then and they’re deeply entrenched still in that mentality. The oldest ones being forced onto the battlefield now are their grandkids who grew up with that mindset indoctrinated into them by their parents who overwhelmingly support Putin and this war.

As we know, Russia is an oooooooooold country and their best youth got out long ago. As said before I work with 3 Russians here in Sweden and their parents in Moscow and St Petersburg who would be in their 50s now so young enough to know better still rabidly support the war.

Putin has been very clear that we won’t outlast Russia, and Zelenskyy agrees with him that we have to outright defeat them not expect to outlast them.

Of course we can hope that once Putin dies someone more sane succeeds him, but Putin has spent the past 5+ years completely isolated in a bunker, nobody is getting to him to end it anytime soon and once he dies there will be the mother of all power struggles to succeed him within his inner circle of oligarchs and ex FSB staff. The chance of someone sane enough to put a stop to this and bring Russia in from the cold winning out is pretty low…

All you are potraying is your opinion, but in a manner that you want it to believed as fact. Let's see your evidence

Regarding Putin. Don't you think the US could take him out at any time if they wanted?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I mean do I think that the war is having a horrific effect on the Russian economy? Of course albeit China, India and the UAE are still happily keeping Russia afloat. As said though, Russia officially has over 100 billionaires, tens of thousands of ‘ultra wealthy’ and around 500,000 millionaires and these are the people funding the war with anyone who dissents quickly disposed of and their funds confiscated.

Of course it’s a finite ability to fund the war, the Russians gamble is that ‘the west’ won’t be willing to fund another 5-10 years of this and Zelenskyy has said many times we have to beat Russia, we won’t outlast them.


There is a huge difference between wanting Russia to win and discussing the reality of where things stand today. I don’t believe anyone outside Russia supports them getting Donbas and Crimea as at best it puts off for a few years us having to confront Russia elsewhere, be it in Ukraine again, or Moldova.


Financially absolutely there will be a breaking point as discussed above, it isn’t going to be anytime soon though unfortunately.

From an ‘emotional’ perspective I think it’s extremely naive to believe that Russians will ever grow tired enough of this to stand up en masse and demand an end.

This is the country who just 80 years ago lost 27 million fighting and didn’t stand up and demand an end. Of course it was to our benefit that they were on our side then but now they’re not and they’re still the same people. Russias elderly are the kids/nieces/ nephews of those who died then and they’re deeply entrenched still in that mentality. The oldest ones being forced onto the battlefield now are their grandkids who grew up with that mindset indoctrinated into them by their parents who overwhelmingly support Putin and this war.

As we know, Russia is an oooooooooold country and their best youth got out long ago. As said before I work with 3 Russians here in Sweden and their parents in Moscow and St Petersburg who would be in their 50s now so young enough to know better still rabidly support the war.

Putin has been very clear that we won’t outlast Russia, and Zelenskyy agrees with him that we have to outright defeat them not expect to outlast them.

Of course we can hope that once Putin dies someone more sane succeeds him, but Putin has spent the past 5+ years completely isolated in a bunker, nobody is getting to him to end it anytime soon and once he dies there will be the mother of all power struggles to succeed him within his inner circle of oligarchs and ex FSB staff. The chance of someone sane enough to put a stop to this and bring Russia in from the cold winning out is pretty low…

And only the other side of the scales, far smaller loses in Afghanistan were a key part in bringing down the Soviet Union.

I'm always astonished by posts such as yours which exhibit such certainty about the future.

Dictatorships fail slowly at first, then suddenly all at once. I'm not predicting when Putin's fascist kleptocracy will fall, but one day it will.

In the meantime, we should support ukraine in their fight for freedom. It should be up to them whether they resist or surrender, not forced by a lack of support from us.

 

[Scottyboi]

From "The Analyst":

AVDIVKA BATTLE SAPS RUSSIAN RESERVES

The Ukrainians have managed for the most part to hold well in front of the areas on the east bank of the river that their new defence lines are being finished on the west of. In the northern part where the river touches Russian controlled land and they can try an come behind it, there have been tougher battles.
The area is geographically difficult for the Russians.
Several rivers flow east to west and fill the river that flows north to south - the same river the defence lines are behind.
These rivers force the Russians into corridors between them and make it difficult to manoeuvre, and they act as a funnel that forces the attackers into a tight targeting zone. As a result the Russians have held back. The northern sector however has appeared most productive for them, but the Ukrainians are having none of it. They keep up fire and counter attacks against the advancing Russians to such a degree that the Russians got bogged down. This was not acceptable to the Russian commanders who were afraid they were loosing the initiative. As a result they decided to do the one thing you only should do in two clear circumstances. They committed their reserves, half reconstituted units savaged in the Avdika attacks.
Reserves that are half reconstituted should only be used in a last ditch defence, or when you are totally sure they will tip the balance of a vital situation in your favour. This was neither, it was excessive pressure to maintain an illusory advance that was going nowhere for cosmetic reasons. That’s just bad generalship.
The consequences of doing this and what it tells us are significant. Firstly they have no other reserves. If they did they would use them. Some of the soldiers were captured and had only been mobilised 8 days prior!
It also tells us they have run out of men again and that building up reserves prior to a summer offensive isn’t going to be easy. Their quality will be minimal.
As it is some of the Russian advances were one way suicide missions. Troops were sent off to engage with zero back up in the full knowledge they weren’t coming back. Just to test minefields and detect the positions of Ukrainian defences.
Something tells me it’s going to be a difficult summer for the next Russian attempts to take more ground.

Slava Ukraini !

 

[SebastianBlue]

All you are potraying is your opinion, but in a manner that you want it to believed as fact. Let's see your evidence

Regarding Putin. Don't you think the US could take him out at any time if they wanted?

I would suggest just putting them on ignore. I have long since given up attempting to engage with them because they state everything with a bravado and certainty of an omniscient arbiter of the truth and I have never seen them admit they are wrong or even could be, even when presented with strong (or irrefutable) evidence they are. Most discussion with them is the same as speaking to an especially overconfident, strongly opinionated brick wall.

 

[CTID1977]

Regarding Putin. Don't you think the US could take him out at any time if they wanted?

Why would they? FFS the **** is doing their
job for them: plus two more countries in NATO, discrediting his country as a power house, obliterating his so called second army in the world

 

[mosssideblue]

Why would they? FFS the **** is doing their
job for them: plus two more countries in NATO, discrediting his country as a power house, obliterating his so called second army in the world

I was responding to our Russian lover who said Putin is bunkered down and out of reach

 

[lee_wsm]

Chechens are doing.

Slava Ukraini.

I was responding to our Russian lover who said Putin is bunkered down and out of reach

If reports are true he is pretty well protected and due to past Russians leaders meeting their end by inside jobs he is very paranoid. The problem with Russia as a general is they believe their own bullshit of being stronger than everyone and everyone is against them. Every person close to taking over seems equally a fucked up person.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Regarding Putin. Don't you think the US could take him out at any time if they wanted?

Sure. The US could kill Putin if it were hell-bent on doing so. Hell, just drop a few thermo-nuclear warheads on Moscow or wherever Putin happens to be.

Or perhaps you mean some sort of clandestine assassination attempt. Maybe that could be pulled off (some sort of chemical agent when the US President shakes hands with Putin?); maybe that could be kept secret (or rather more likely, someone involved in such a hairbrained scheme would leak it to the press); and maybe the method of assassination would succeed with no trace back to the USA. All-in-all, the USA killing Putin in a manner that didn't trace back to America is pretty iffy at best.

Moreover, the consequences of such action, if found out by Russia, would likely be WWIII. No sane President of the US would sanction the killing of Putin.

 

[CTID1977]

I was responding to our Russian lover who said Putin is bunkered down and out of reach

Never doubted your Cossack support my friend!

 

[CTID1977]

It looks like Ichkerian (Chechen) patriots have entered another settlement in Bilhorod region.

 

[CTID1977]

Sure. The US could kill Putin if it were hell-bent on doing so. Hell, just drop a few thermo-nuclear warheads on Moscow or wherever Putin happens to be.

Or perhaps you mean some sort of clandestine assassination attempt. Maybe that could be pulled off (some sort of chemical agent when the US President shakes hands with Putin); maybe that could be kept secret (or rather more likely, someone involved in such a hairbrained scheme would leak it to the press); and maybe the method of assassination would succeed with no trace back to the USA. All-in-all, the USA killing Putin in a manner that didn't trace back to America is pretty iffy at best.

Moreover, the consequences of such action, if found out by Russia, would likely be WWIII. No sane President of the US would sanction the killing of Putin.

Why would they want to take him down if the **** doing their job? USA and China should award him their highest honours

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Why would they want to take him down if the **** doing their job? USA and China should award him their highest honours

You question is orthogonal to reality. There's no way that the US would ever contemplate the assassination of Putin.

But in some sort of alternative reality where assassination is an option - there's very good reason to kill Putin and others of his ilk, and to stage a coup, attempting to ensure that a palatable leader succeeds him. Russia may well win its war against Ukraine because the US Congress is blocking aid. Should Ukraine fall, it's terrible for Europe and the US (although a deluded Trump and his MAGA contingent might believe otherwise, embracing fascism over Democracy).

Russia's army/navy/air force is now not at all a threat to the USA. It's their nuclear arsenal that's of concern.

You seem to think that Ukraine's war with Russia is some sort of pivotal advantage the US/China - thank God that the 3rd-rate Russian army, navy and air force are being destroyed by Ukraine, otherwise we'd have a real adversary on our hands!

Russia is pretty much like North Korea. Some backwater nation that, absent nukes, the US could wipe out entirely with no problem whatsoever. Except that Russia and NK possess nuclear weapons - and a miscalculation could prove disastrous. And Russia is much, much more capable than NK in terms of nuclear deployment, it's arenal including ICBMs and nuclear-equipped submarines.

 

[SebastianBlue]

If reports are true he is pretty well protected and due to past Russians leaders meeting their end by inside jobs he is very paranoid. The problem with Russia as a general is they believe their own bullshit of being stronger than everyone and everyone is against them. Every person close to taking over seems equally a fucked up person.

I think it is more a case of selection filtering: you have to be a power hungry, ruthless, paranoid, psychopath get anywhere near the top in Russia. If you aren’t you get fairly filtered out fairly quickly by the system itself (one way or another, but often by the current powers).

Now, the first two attributes are often necessary to make it to the highest echelons of any political system, but the last two are usually reserved for the violent, volatile despotic systems.

It is one of the problems with attempting to depose dictators and/or dismantle authoritarian regimes or terrorist organisations. It is almost impossible to do comprehensively, so you are normally (at best) removing the top level of leadership, leaving a power vacuum to be filled by a new regime that is as (or more) extreme as the previous one (often aided in their ascent by the furious reaction to the ouster of the previous regime).