US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
SkyBlueAmerican said:
Yeah - obviously there is a history of polls underestimating the GOP vote, but they also underestimated the Dem vote in our midterm elections in 2022

And this year has been a very challenging landscape for pollsters
Click to expand...
Just saying, in Trumps previous campaigns he has outperformed his poll numbers.

One of the most accurate polls in 2020 was Atlas….again just saying.
 
Frank the Yank said:
Let’s be honest, she isn’t holding Bidens serve. NC looks like a pretty big hill to climb. Trump probably wins AZ, GA and perhaps NV. If that happens she had to run the table in PA, MI, and WI. Could happen. Like drawing to an inside straight. It could happen to you will go get to the poor house rather quickly playing poker.
Click to expand...
I am being honest. Harder in GA and in WI, but as I've said before, the anti-Lake and abortion constitutional amendment in AZ may help her turnout immensely, and by all accounts Trump's on-the-ground effort in NV is his worst in any swing state.

I do go back to a point made by many others -- where are Trump's additional votes coming from vs. the new votes coming from switcheroos, higher female participation, and the largest wave in several decades of kids turning 18 (including both mine, by the way)? I don't want to overstate this, but someone else kept talking about this being a maths problem. High turnout helps her, not him.

Oh, and by the way -- recall that point you made about down African-American turnout? Did you see the stat out yesterday or the day before that said it had dramatically reversed and was back to normal levels over the last week?
 
Last edited:
So the weird thing about my voting ballot is there are like 20 - 30 different elections I can vote for.
Obviously the President but also state governer, representative, and a whole host of town finance officer, sherrif and school board members!

The strange thing is, I can vote for (for example) a democratic President and at the same time a Republican governor for the state I live in as the two are separate ballots.

I imagine most folk just tick all the republican or democratic boxes but I was talking to someone at work yesterday who said she is a democrat and will vote for Harris but really likes the republican governor in the state
 
Frank the Yank said:
Good for you for putting out your prediction. Think you are a bit over optimistic.

The key is Pennsylvania, which I very much doubt will be called before midnight local time east coast USA. He’ll it probably might not get decided before 500 am tomorrow.

However, Harris can not win without PA while I can see a pathway for Trump to get 270 LOSING PA.
Click to expand...
Harris absolutely can win without PA.
 
Frank the Yank said:
Just saying, in Trumps previous campaigns he has outperformed his poll numbers.

One of the most accurate polls in 2020 was Atlas….again just saying.
Click to expand...
This is true but polling firms adjust the raw results to reflect past performance and other factors. We will have the results soon enough.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Harris absolutely can win without PA.
Click to expand...
This was the general vibe on a lot of the Left Wing you tube channels I have been watching. The path obviously becomes more difficult. She's big odds on Favourite now to win Pennsylvania & Michigan ( where i thought she may struggle ) which will the make job a lot easier if she bags these Two.
 
Mad Eyed Screamer said:
So the weird thing about my voting ballot is there are like 20 - 30 different elections I can vote for.
Obviously the President but also state governer, representative, and a whole host of town finance officer, sherrif and school board members!

The strange thing is, I can vote for (for example) a democratic President and at the same time a Republican governor for the state I live in as the two are separate ballots.

I imagine most folk just tick all the republican or democratic boxes but I was talking to someone at work yesterday who said she is a democrat and will vote for Harris but really likes the republican governor in the state
Click to expand...
Not strange for us at all. It’s called ballot splitting and some people do vote that way.
 
Mad Eyed Screamer said:
So the weird thing about my voting ballot is there are like 20 - 30 different elections I can vote for.
Obviously the President but also state governer, representative, and a whole host of town finance officer, sherrif and school board members!

The strange thing is, I can vote for (for example) a democratic President and at the same time a Republican governor for the state I live in as the two are separate ballots.

I imagine most folk just tick all the republican or democratic boxes but I was talking to someone at work yesterday who said she is a democrat and will vote for Harris but really likes the republican governor in the state
Click to expand...
What you are describing is a “split ticket” (or “ticket-splitting”) and does indeed add complexity to the election, especially if you really study the nature and implications of it (there are literally entire university courses about it), even as it impacts presidential voting.

These are some interesting write-ups about it, for those interested.


www.pbs.org

How split-ticket voters could decide control of Congress

Split-ticket voters, those who vote for candidates from different parties, are increasingly rare in modern American politics. But those who cross the aisle on their ballots this November may decide which party controls the Senate next year. Lisa Desjardins reports.
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org

If anyone is interested, there are also some very good analysis of how the design and formatting of ballots (tickets) can significantly impact voting outcomes, which can play in to intentional (and unintentional) ticket-splitting.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top