US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[Frank the Yank]

Yeah - obviously there is a history of polls underestimating the GOP vote, but they also underestimated the Dem vote in our midterm elections in 2022

And this year has been a very challenging landscape for pollsters

Just saying, in Trumps previous campaigns he has outperformed his poll numbers.

One of the most accurate polls in 2020 was Atlas….again just saying.

 

[johnny crossan]

Days of misery lie ahead - no result until the week-end at the earliest

 

[Frank the Yank]

I’ll be dipping between CNN and MSNBC right up until we pretty much know Harris has won then I’ll be enjoying the melt down on Fox.

A bit like sneaking a peak on Brent’s channel when the Rags lose??

 

[The blue phantom]

I know the title says US Presidential election but the entire House gets elected and about 1/3 of the Senate.

Both the House and the Senate are in the balance.

The house is in the Balance. Seems to be a 20% chance the Dems hold on to the Senate.

 

[Frank the Yank]

The house is in the Balance. Seems to be a 20% chance the Dems hold on to the Senate.

I knew the Dems were up against it but I didn’t realize it was that bleak for them..

 

[Frank the Yank]

Whos on the half time show?

P Diddy from cell block H

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Let’s be honest, she isn’t holding Bidens serve. NC looks like a pretty big hill to climb. Trump probably wins AZ, GA and perhaps NV. If that happens she had to run the table in PA, MI, and WI. Could happen. Like drawing to an inside straight. It could happen to you will go get to the poor house rather quickly playing poker.

I am being honest. Harder in GA and in WI, but as I've said before, the anti-Lake and abortion constitutional amendment in AZ may help her turnout immensely, and by all accounts Trump's on-the-ground effort in NV is his worst in any swing state.

I do go back to a point made by many others -- where are Trump's additional votes coming from vs. the new votes coming from switcheroos, higher female participation, and the largest wave in several decades of kids turning 18 (including both mine, by the way)? I don't want to overstate this, but someone else kept talking about this being a maths problem. High turnout helps her, not him.

Oh, and by the way -- recall that point you made about down African-American turnout? Did you see the stat out yesterday or the day before that said it had dramatically reversed and was back to normal levels over the last week?

 

[Mad Eyed Screamer]

So the weird thing about my voting ballot is there are like 20 - 30 different elections I can vote for.
Obviously the President but also state governer, representative, and a whole host of town finance officer, sherrif and school board members!

The strange thing is, I can vote for (for example) a democratic President and at the same time a Republican governor for the state I live in as the two are separate ballots.

I imagine most folk just tick all the republican or democratic boxes but I was talking to someone at work yesterday who said she is a democrat and will vote for Harris but really likes the republican governor in the state

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Good for you for putting out your prediction. Think you are a bit over optimistic.

The key is Pennsylvania, which I very much doubt will be called before midnight local time east coast USA. He’ll it probably might not get decided before 500 am tomorrow.

However, Harris can not win without PA while I can see a pathway for Trump to get 270 LOSING PA.

Harris absolutely can win without PA.

 

[Frank the Yank]

Sorry who is endorsing who again?

View attachment 137390

The richest counties in America vote Democrat and some by huge margins. Think its11 out of the top 13 or close to that.