How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

roubaixtuesday said:
This summary came out, maybe the same one



Short version: it's been about as bad as expected.
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"Considering all of the evidence, the consensus view – that Brexit’s economic impact would be negative and large – has been borne out. The 2019-2024 parliament raised taxes by around £100 billion, and if we take theOBR’s 4 per cent loss of productivity to be the true figure, £40 billion of those tax rises were needed because of EU withdrawal.
 
hampshireblue said:
As always, timescales are important. The EU is 5.2 v UK 4.1 since before the pandemic. 5 years is a reasonable and sensible timeframe rather than the odd quarter here and there.
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It's not the odd quarter. It's culmulative since the brexit vote.

Since 2017 culmulative growth for European G7 countries is as follows.

UK 10.1
FR 10.04
GER 5.51
IT 8.95
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
It's not the odd quarter. It's culmulative since the brexit vote.

Since 2017 culmulative growth for European G7 countries is as follows.

UK 10.1
FR 10.04
GER 5.51
IT 8.95
Click to expand...
Thanks for that. It doesn’t change the fact that Brexit has made the UK demonstrably worse off than it would have been had we remained in. It’s a bit like saying we set the terrace of houses on fire but at least our house is getting repaired very slightly quicker. It would have been better not to start the fire in the first place.
 
hampshireblue said:
Thanks for that. It doesn’t change the fact that Brexit has made the UK demonstrably worse off than it would have been had we remained in. It’s a bit like saying we set the terrace of houses on fire but at least our house is getting repaired very slightly quicker. It would have been better not to start the fire in the first place.
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Probably has, but the reason I posted those figures is to show that the estimated figure of a loss of 4% of GDP since brexit, which is widely banded about, is clearly very wide of the mark. We are infact doing OK economically and this is despite a poor brexit deal and by many measures a pretty poor Conservative government over the period since we left. We can only hope that the new governemnt improves on these figures further, with better trade deals with the EU. I am reasonably optimistic that they can. Fingers crossed.
 
hampshireblue said:
Thanks for that. It doesn’t change the fact that Brexit has made the UK demonstrably worse off than it would have been had we remained in. It’s a bit like saying we set the terrace of houses on fire but at least our house is getting repaired very slightly quicker. It would have been better not to start the fire in the first place.
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Thing is the 52% ( or however many are still alive ) believed what they saw and what they read. Most don't want to read something telling the truth now as that goes against something they are convinced about and have been for a decade - its the same as those you still see across the pond who are convinced China is eating the tariffs ( yet they simultaneously get annoyed that prices at Walmart are going up ) - have you noticed on that the amount Trump claims to have raised is $88bn but that figure has been quoted for about a fortnight. Have Americans stopped spending?
 
Brexit, for its believers, is not a political or economic matter that you can judge by its success or failure. It's a religion, an end in itself. Therefore, you could prove, conclusively, that Brexit has made us worse off, and they still would not care.

They are a cult. The equivalent of Rags who keep saying 'twenty times' even though they know their team is shit.
 
hampshireblue said:
An independent economist on radio earlier stated that UK tax receipts are approx. £40bn down per year as aa direct result of Brexit. Well done to the 52%.
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I don't believe that figure at all because it ignores reality. If the economy was suffering by £40bn per year then that's 1.6% of GDP today. Had we been in the EU then would we instead be seeing 3-4% growth instead of <2%? Not a single European economy is doing that so why would we do far better? It makes no sense.

There is an odd quandry on here, I read in the Labour thread of how Labour are doing so well to grow the economy and yet meanwhile in this thread we're apparently suffering and collapsing due to Brexit. Which is it?

What is the explanation for the graph below? Where is Brexit? The reality is Brexit made us worse off yes, however within the economic figures at least it's barely noticeable. This is not the story that was given by many who said that the entire country would collapse because it hasn't.

f0ecbb80-d4ed-4cb7-a86e-fbd9d8b351be.png
 
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The Future’s Blue! said:
The situation is a complex one and if you listen to certain elements of the political and media fraternity, you’d think that it is a simple decision of the current government giving up sovereignty, whereas the reality is somewhat different.

Simple solutions for simple people, anybody would think that there’s not a big, wide world out there.
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the US used Trident as a trump card to take over Diego Garcia, the way our govt went about it was and still is a fucking disgrace; normal for the CIA, a new low for UK "democracy". Following Simon Winchesters book there was a brief period of articles in the media, with very few details of how the Chargossians were forced onto ships and deported for "medical reasons", despite having british passports, then abandoned, 1200 miles away. Successive governments kept a lid on this invoking "national security issues" blah blah. Arse-covering more like.....
 
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