US & Israel attack Iran

SWP's back said:
Wary - cautious, watchful, guarded.

Weary - tired, sleepy

Not being a don’t but it seems to be a very commonly confused word. My boss always says weary when he means wary and 12 years of correcting him still doesn’t stop him so it’s now like toothache to me.
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Whoops, that’s what I typed, will go back and edit ;-)
 
The Future’s Blue! said:
Have the UK Government confirmed that the 2 missiles were real and, if so, came from Iran?

I only ask this as my thoughts were always that Israel would bring the US in, and then the US would call for European/NATO involvement to create an even bigger mess that would allow Israel to further attack Labanon and Iran.

Funny, that this morning an ex-Israeli PM, stood in an area that has been bombed by Iran, tells us that now we know Iran has long-range missiles that can strike all of Europe, we all have to get involved in the conflict and support what they are doing.
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Being in range of Iranian missiles isn’t really that groundbreaking. There are plenty of so called adversaries who can hit the UK. Some with nuclear warheads. The only real question is would the MAD doctrine keep the Iranian regime from lashing out unilaterally if they had nuclear weapons.

There are two bookends I see to Iran having nukes, it gives them projection of power and increased authority in the region - in return they stop the sponsorship of terrorism globally and become a responsible global player and equally Israel stops behaving without check. Or they nuke Israel as soon as they can.

What a time to be alive.
 
BobKowalski said:
It will reopen. The Gulf States need it open, China, India need it open. Keep the Strait closed and countries will look for ways around the problem. Keeping it open means countries will use it and that maintains Iran’s leverage to close it in extremis.
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Yeah I expect that to happen, was just posing the question what if Iran realise the power they have with that and say we want all USA bases to vacate them?
 
BrianW said:
Modern defence equipment is outrageously expensive, and we spend a disproportionate amount on nuclear bombs - the equivalent of a bee's sting, only to be used once and fatal to the bee if used.
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I wouldn't underestimate the deterrence factor of having nukes.
Just look at North Korea. Nobody wants to sort the problems/threat they create.
 
waspish said:
Yeah I expect that to happen, was just posing the question what if Iran realise the power they have with that and say we want all USA bases to vacate them?
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It’s disproportional. Closing the Strait is a last ditch defence measure, but it is not really an offensive measure. The US would not vacate their bases because Iran ‘threatened’ them with Strait closure. Everyone would push against this, even Iran friendly countries. An open Strait benefits everyone including Iran.

It would also push countries to start looking at alternative solutions to the Strait thereby removing Iran’s leverage in future. This may happen anyway tbh.
 
BobKowalski said:
It’s disproportional. Closing the Strait is a last ditch defence measure, but it is not really an offensive measure. The US would not vacate their bases because Iran ‘threatened’ them with Strait closure. Everyone would push against this, even Iran friendly countries. An open Strait benefits everyone including Iran.

It would also push countries to start looking at alternative solutions to the Strait thereby removing Iran’s leverage in future. This may happen anyway tbh.
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Thanks for that response never looked at it like that..
 
BobKowalski said:
It will reopen. The Gulf States need it open, China, India need it open. Keep the Strait closed and countries will look for ways around the problem. Keeping it open means countries will use it and that maintains Iran’s leverage to close it in extremis.
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I think Irans leverage is severely time limited here.

When this is all settled down, the gulf states will 100% be building pipelines to get around the strait. They won’t get up to the whole 20m barrels a day but there were already plans to up the Saudi one from 1.4m to 5m before the war. 10m seems feasible across all the GCC. Bibi is begging for one to Israel already.

Secondly they have caught Israel and the US lagging 5 years behind drone warfare but that’s very temporary. Ukraine will sell their anti drone drones to anyone and the US MIC will go into overdrive to create their own and Irans ability to retaliate against another war will be pretty much gone in 2 years.

So from an Iranian perspective you have to keep China on side, but as long as they are it makes sense to draw out this war as long as possible and make it so economically and politically costly that no one tries to attack them again for another 40 years.

It’s not like the IRGC give a shit about their civilians dying anyway.

So I guess the reality is China decides when the strait reopens and a month ago Xi declared they want to do another push to make Yuan the world reserve currency so this disruption to the petrodollar might be worth the economic shock that they seem to be better equipped to deal with than the rest of us.
 
What should iran do if America and Israel continue bombing their infrastructure? Maybe some experts on here can shed a light on it ?
 
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