EU referendum

[roaminblue]

Yet he has been the go to guy for at least three governments when the shit has hit the fan, just consulted on exit before the commons select committee who acknowledge him as just that, its personal preference who you choose, but I do think over the years he has been right far more often than most an has the numbers to back up his views.

You can watch his evidence at the select committee when he lays out his views, not his best performance because he is a typical academic talking to people who have at best a scant knowledge of the subject, but worth a watch.

I'll try and look it up tonight. Do you have the source for your other post. Id be interested to read

 

[hgblue]

The trouble I see with the outers is they assume that divorce is rational and that both parties act in the overall self interest. It is in a sense logical but the entire history of the globe shows that the best overall outcome is nearly never pursued or achieved. What will make this so different to everything history has taught us?

Don't divorce your controlling husband because the divorce could turn nasty and he'll make your life hell afterwards? Do you realise how unappealing that argument is?

 

[cibaman]

We're the EUs most important customer, certainly in the case of France and Germany. We are a relatively rich, geographically close economy, who are paying full whack for their expensive luxury goods, (eg cars and champagne). This makes it extremely important for them that they don't piss us off, and economic suicide for them to engage in some sort of trade war with us. Tariffs hurt them in two ways, because they risk alienating a really important market (will the British people continue to buy their stuff if they are seen as responding vindictively to a democratic vote) and their goods become more expensive than their competition. French farmers and German car manufacturers would be in open revolt if this was even suggested, and the Eurozone would be plunged into an even deeper crisis. It aint happening.

This seems to me to be remarkably similar to the argument expressed by Tsipras and Varoufakis when trying to persuade the Greek people that they would be able to lead them out of austerity. In that case it was German financiers, fearful of another banking crisis, rather than German car manufacturers, who would force Merkel to back down and hand the Greeks a bail out free from austerity measures. Varoufakis' had this quaint belief that he was an expert in Game Theory and that that when push came to shove the EU would back down.

As it turned out, the German financiers had much less influence than Varoufakis expected. Fears of another banking crisis were offset by fears that a favourable bail out would tempt other countries to default. The German people were overwhelmingly against giving Tsipras what he wanted, Tsipras and Varoufakis also under estimated the hostility to Greece of the smaller countries, those that weren't required to contribute to a bail out, but who resented the idea that Greece would escape austerity when they had pushed through their own deeply unpopular austerity programmes.

In the end the Greeks got their bail out extended, just as the UK will get a trade agreement. But it was nothing like as favourable as Tsipras and Varoufakis had promised. It isn't going well, the Greeks are still protesting on the streets of Athens. And Varoufakis is advising Jeremy Corbyn.

 

[Monkfish]

Don't divorce your controlling husband because the divorce could turn nasty and he'll make your life hell afterwards? Do you realise how unappealing that argument is?

yeah it is, but so is leaving your husband to sail off towards America in a dinghy crewed by Admiral Farage and first sea mate Johnson... not totally convinced the husband is that bad yet

 

[hgblue]

yeah it is, but so is leaving your husband to sail off towards America in a dinghy crewed by Admiral Farage and first sea mate Johnson... not totally convinced the husband is that bad yet

Well you've been in a controlling relationship for so long you've lost your self confidence and you have people telling you you'll never cope on your own, so it's hardly surprising you're having doubts. Thing is, you know you don't love him anymore and you do have friends who remember what a happy and strong person you used to be. Hopefully when push comes to shove you'll choose hope over fear.

 

[SWP's back]

Well you've been in a controlling relationship for so long you've lost your self confidence and you have people telling you you'll never cope on your own, so it's hardly surprising you're having doubts. Thing is, you know you don't love him anymore and you do have friends who remember what a happy and strong person you used to be. Hopefully when push comes to shove you'll choose hope over fear.

You took the faux aussie's analogy, ran with it and did rather well there mate.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Not at all. It's bollocks. To suggest that everything in life and global politics is done to spite other nations rather than work for mutual benefaction is fucking bollocks.

And to answer, Britain would have the whip hand due to the net trade deficit with Europe. That's the fucking point everyone bar three hyperbolic 'inners' are making.

Don't be so black and white , this isn't about spite it is about greed and sub optimal outcomes . Britain won't have a whip hand, but it is the negotiations with everyone was not just Europe that are what's important

 

[EalingBlue2]

Don't divorce your controlling husband because the divorce could turn nasty and he'll make your life hell afterwards? Do you realise how unappealing that argument is?

The argument was about the outcome and behaviour of divorce and the naiive assumptions made not a moral judgement on divorce or the circumstance

 

[KenTheLandlord]

Not at all. It's bollocks. To suggest that everything in life and global politics is done to spite other nations rather than work for mutual benefaction is fucking bollocks.

And to answer, Britain would have the whip hand due to the net trade deficit with Europe. That's the fucking point everyone bar three 'inners' are making.

I have not suggested that, you have and yes to suggest that is bollocks, which is why i said they do it to suit themselves.

As @roaminblue has stated you have not painted a true picture.
Four of the top six export markets are EU countries but at least we are increasing business with Angola, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Macedonia, which is good.

 

[EalingBlue2]

The big question which not one outer (or to be fair inner though that's not where the question was posed) has not even attempted to answer is what is Britains economic future? What is it that going out of Europe is going to help Britain export?

How does a country with no natural resources, a dramatically declining standard of education (comparatively speaking - though much of this is others coming up) , products and exports that are increasingly copied and bettered by the countries who will be our new trading partners etc. Is there actually a plan other than cutting labour rights, cutting standards and getting more cheap from abroad (which can give a short term boost) to address more than a century of decline? I don't see it, I just see a desire to cut education standards , cut health standards and cut consumer protection to try and win, which is not a strategy where the UK can compete on?

This in many ways is unchanged by in or out so is a higher question than the vote and in many ways the question everyone knows there is no answer to so part of the reason the vote is on as it kicks it down the road

 

[EalingBlue2]

I have not suggested that, you have and yes to suggest that is bollocks, which is why i said they do it to suit themselves.

As @roaminblue has stated you have not painted a true picture.
Four of the top six export markets are EU countries but at least we are increasing business with Angola, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Macedonia, which is good.

The other issue as well is what you need to import , if you need to import the basics of food, of energy, of raw materials, of fossil fuels etc then you are on the weak end of a negotiation as you are needing to import things you a. Need and b. Cannot produce yourself. If you need to import value add or luxury goods then you are a cash cow to other markets but even if you have a KK in negotiations they will know they have AA. This is my big worry for Britain. Countries like Australia, India, Brazil and Russia can't wait to start supplying more but there is not that much in return that is really needed.

The numbers and dollars are fine but what matters is what is behind them and that's where the rubber hits the road.

 

[KenTheLandlord]

The big question which not one outer (or to be fair inner though that's not where the question was posed) has not even attempted to answer is what is Britains economic future? What is it that going out of Europe is going to help Britain export?

How does a country with no natural resources, a dramatically declining standard of education (comparatively speaking - though much of this is others coming up) , products and exports that are increasingly copied and bettered by the countries who will be our new trading partners etc. Is there actually a plan other than cutting labour rights, cutting standards and getting more cheap from abroad (which can give a short term boost) to address more than a century of decline? I don't see it, I just see a desire to cut education standards , cut health standards and cut consumer protection to try and win, which is not a strategy where the UK can compete on?

This in many ways is unchanged by in or out so is a higher question than the vote and in many ways the question everyone knows there is no answer to so part of the reason the vote is on as it kicks it down the road

You severely underestimate this



What could possibly go wrong with this crew of the sinking ship HMS UK

 

[EalingBlue2]

You severely underestimate this



What could possibly go wrong with this crew of the sinking ship HMS UK

A lot could go wrong, but the long term strategy of a country and how Britain is long term going to maintain an ageing population, a world where competition will come from everywhere in a country with a big ageing population and little natura resource is beyond me. This isn't even a question or issue of the government it is a problem that has been put off for decades and will take decades to solve. How does Britain re-invent , how does Britain flourish and what is the long term vision. Labour did not do much more than the Tories to fix it.

The Brexit vote is a vote on shifting deck chairs on the titanic which is being carried out to put off discussion of the serious issues. Sadly when the winning side gets over crowing about victory we will be left with a crash into an iceberg which the losers will blame on the vote. But until there is a plan of where to sail, how to sail and what to do about the iceberg pissing about wasting time and money and goodwill on the vote is scandalous. Sadly as with all our politicians - Cameron took a short term easy option and the effects will divide Britain for decades, possibly end the union and accelerate the century old decline, whichever way the vote goes.

The decline was there pre EU, it was there during the EU and it will continue with or without the EU.

 

[blueonblue]

So we have "A declining standard of education"...But its nothing to do with our schools being swamped by unfettered immigration leading to overcrowded classes where the teacher is having to spend all their time working through translators on the slowest elements to the degradation of an education for the brightest ?.

You have the f*cking gaul to claim "Cutting labour rights" is nothing to do with flooding the job market with cheap immigrant labour, that undermines wages and working conditions.

"Cuts to heath standards" have nothing to do with the extra millions of immigrants, often from countries where there is no health care so arrive with long standing problems ?.

But wait, YOU want a plan...Explain how you can build anything when your not in charge of getting the materials needed, the builders merchant keeps sending you bricks when you need pipe or plaster, but you can not refuse the bricks which keep coming, so you have to stockpile them, pay for their storage and upkeep.
You explain to the merchant you have plenty of bricks, but he tells you that you have to keep taking them because your a member of the builders club, so you now have a site full of bricks that you are paying for an no f*cking house.

That would be the height of stupidity, its also how things work under the EU.

 

[Helmet Cole]

Notice the poll at the top is slowly but definitely moving towards a 40/60 split. I don't think this split is representative of national opinion, but the gradual slide further towards brexit probably is as the 'in' proponents fail to come up with anything tangible.

 

[DenisLawBackHeel74]

Notice the poll at the top is slowly but definitely moving towards a 40/60 split. I don't think this split is representative of national opinion, but the gradual slide further towards brexit probably is as the 'in' proponents fail to come up with anything tangible.

I think some of the 'out' is sentiment given the current political and economic situation and the backdrop of terrorism, and the migrant situation in ME.

That said, practically everyone I know will vote out....

Edit: I will add that the above is largely because of a lack of decent, accurate, quantifiable and logical argument for either case.

I'm in business and manage a large company that sells products across EMEA. I will be voting out primarily because I'm interested to find out what it will do for our national identity but also because I genuinely believe we will be better off....let's not forget, this little Island was responsible for 40% of the the worlds best inventions....and we used to own most of their asses ;)

I think were up to the challenge...


Apparently we spent 13 billion on EU membership in 2015, we received back 4.5 billion so net 8.5 billion...second highest contributor after Germany. Obviously inners argue that the benefit of being in the single market far far far outweighs the costs of membership but I'm yet to see data around that and my personal view is that as a net importer from the trade block we could negotiate very good trade terms or if not, quite simple to set up some favourable unilateral or bilateral trade deals with other trading blocks....

 

[cibaman]

Notice the poll at the top is slowly but definitely moving towards a 40/60 split. I don't think this split is representative of national opinion, but the gradual slide further towards brexit probably is as the 'in' proponents fail to come up with anything tangible.

Still 18% don't knows. Most will vote remain

 

[Gabriel]

Should be interesting to see how the Dutch referendum goes this week. Not quite Brexit, but it will no doubt add more grist to the mill.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dut...on_Agreement_referendum,_2016#Opinion_polling

 

[blueonblue]

Still 18% don't knows. Most will vote remain

I have heard it said that the floating voter will favour the no change option, but that its self is a non starter on one simple fact, the EU will not remain the same.

The aims of the EU is to form a super state of Europe with full integration of member countries at every level , it is not going to stop until that happens no matter what countries think they have agreed too, or what vetto`s they claim to have. We originally signed up to a free trade union, anyone think thats what we are mired in now ?.

The people who think an in vote will lead to things just remaining as they are now are also being conned, its simply not on the table, get out or go under as a nation are your only choices.

 

[grunge]

Notice the poll at the top is slowly but definitely moving towards a 40/60 split. I don't think this split is representative of national opinion, but the gradual slide further towards brexit probably is as the 'in' proponents fail to come up with anything tangible.

the out group havn't come up with anything tangible either,

I personally feel we cant really vote until all the facts are on the table about what sort of exit we are looking at, a clean break and go it alone? a Norwegian style system?, a Swiss style system?. Until we know that we cant really vote with any certainty, all of them are quite different and would have different results. exiter's wont have a clue what they are voting for.

I dont doubt that this uncertainty is intentional.