2020 US Elections

[west didsblue]

The eventual winner needs 270 Electoral College votes to win. Biden has 238 currently and appears to be ahead in Wisconsin and Nevada. That would give him 16 further votes if he holds on, putting him on 254. From there he just needs any one of Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) or Georgia (16) to win the additional votes he needs.

He should be favourite in Michigan, Georgia is counting the remaining votes and is still too close to call although the odds seem to slightly favour Biden, which is slightly surprising as Trump was expected to win there. Pennsylvania will be tight but if he does win Nevada & Wisconsin, plus Michigan, it won't matter.

The bookies seem to have cottoned on to that and it's now 58:42 in Biden's favour and heading in the right direction.

Not counting any chickens until it's at least 99:1.

 

[kaz7]

They use different companies/experts/metrics, so while they generally agree broadly, some are more hesitant to call a tight state than others because nobody wants to be the network that called a state then have to backtrack later

Thanks

 

[SWP's back]

 

[Coatigan]

If Biden take MI, 538 give him a 9/10 chance of winning the whole thing.

View attachment 4910

Times like these, i love nate silver's website. Fascinating stuff, hus stats and projections, properly engrossing.

The sports pages make good reading for us just now as well.

 

[bluesy]

It looks like Biden is getting closer in Michigan. 87% counted now.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

CNN have biden on 224 , are different news outlets calling it differently ?

Don't know. Maybe they've not included Arizona (11) plus the 3 votes he's won in Maine. But they've both been called by the outlets I'm watching.

 

[Damocles]

Times like these, i love nate silver's website. Fascinating stuff, hus stats and projections, properly engrossing.

The sports pages make good reading for us just now as well.

The way the US system works in terms of polling and the electoral college is pretty entertaining. Stupid mind, but entertaining to watch from the sidelines.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Why do you say that?

Because it looks like Biden will win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan once the postal votes are counted. And that’s all he needs. They’re banging on about Pennsylvania being key, but Biden doesn’t even need it.

 

[bluesy]

Don't know. Maybe they've not included Arizona (11) plus the 3 votes he's won in Maine. But they've both been called by the outlets I'm watching.

I think CNN are afraid of Trump. He did tell them not to call it yet....lol.

 

[west didsblue]

The way the US system works in terms of polling and the electoral college is pretty entertaining. Stupid mind, but entertaining to watch from the sidelines.

Entertaining if you don't give a fuck what happens.

 

[jay_mcfc]

Pa odds are crumbling for Trump. This might end up being a landslide for Biden after all.

 

[Bigga]

If there is one thing trump has proven beyond doubt is that if you lie about being for the working class loudly enough, they will back you.

Correct.

The DNC have proved this for 60 years +.

This race shouldn't even be anywhere near this close if they had kept true to their word.

The GOP would never get in if this was the case.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Biden gone back to 4/7 to win.
Come on !!!

 

[domalino]

I think Georgia is the key.

They will be returning a winner today, and Biden is likely to win giving most of the outstanding votes are from Atlanta.

If he wins Georgia, then he's almost there and contesting PA and WI in the courts is a bit futile.

 

[Claytop]

Probably posted at some point over last few days but he may yet have called it right, fingers crossed he didn't though.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Depressing isn't it. Though Biden could effectively govern by exec order like Trump has been doing.

There's only so much of that you can do as President. Any trans-formative agenda, regarding the economy, climate change, taxation etc, they're all out the window unless Biden is willing to take these issues out on the stump non-stop. Effectively keep on campaigning for the next four years, bang heads in the Senate, get down and dirty, and sadly I don't think Joe Biden has it in him.

You're right, it is depressing.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

CNN have biden on 224 , are different news outlets calling it differently ?

Some are adding safe states which haven't been officially declared in.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I think Georgia is the key.

They will be returning a winner today, and Biden is likely to win giving most of the outstanding votes are from Atlanta.

If he wins Georgia, then he's almost there and contesting PA and WI in the courts is a bit futile.

This is how the Guardian sees it as of an hour ago....

The race stands at 238 electoral votes for Biden to 213 for Trump, with six battleground states outstanding. If Biden can hang on to a narrow lead in Nevada, and seal the deal in Wisconsin, any additional state – North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20) – brings him victory.

 

[Blue Maverick]

How can they stop counting! Surely have people on shifts to get it done

 

[SWP's back]

Biden gone back to 4/7 to win.
Come on !!!

What's just been released? What am I missing on that change?