737-8 max plane goes down (2018) - new not Max crash Indonesia

[RadcliffeRick]

This thread needs input from @ChicagoBlue

 

[ChicagoBlue]

At the altitude from which the aircraft rapidly descended, it appears there may have been an almost catastrophic failure that caused it. At 7,800’ they briefly ascended before the final, fatal plunge.

What causes such things?

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

As is always the case with such accidents, it’s the black (bright orange!) boxes that will tell the tale when there are no survivors. It’s always best to wait for more information.

FWIW, the 737-800 is a workhorse without ANY accident history, and I have about 5,000 hours flying that variant without incident.

 

[Scottyboi]

At the altitude from which the aircraft rapidly descended, it appears there may have been an almost catastrophic failure that caused it. At 7,800’ they briefly ascended before the final, fatal plunge.

What causes such things?

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

As is always the case with such accidents, it’s the black (bright orange!) boxes that will tell the tale when there are no survivors. It’s always best to wait for more information.

FWIW, the 737-800 is a workhorse without ANY accident history, and I have about 5,000 hours flying that variant without incident.

Could a pilot be able to make it plunge like that?

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

At the altitude from which the aircraft rapidly descended, it appears there may have been an almost catastrophic failure that caused it. At 7,800’ they briefly ascended before the final, fatal plunge.

What causes such things?

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

As is always the case with such accidents, it’s the black (bright orange!) boxes that will tell the tale when there are no survivors. It’s always best to wait for more information.

FWIW, the 737-800 is a workhorse without ANY accident history, and I have about 5,000 hours flying that variant without incident.

Could it have been something similar to that Japan Airlines 747, but more catastrophic? If I recall that one had a lot more plunges and then altitude gains before it finally crashed.

Can't see how a pilot wouldn't lose conciousness before pushing a plane like that straight vertical like that?

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Could a pilot be able to make it plunge like that?

Of course, but usually the other pilot doesn’t want to die, too!

I doubt very much this is intentional.

 

[west didsblue]

Could it have been something similar to that Japan Airlines 747, but more catastrophic? If I recall that one had a lot more plunges and then altitude gains before it finally crashed.

Can't see how a pilot wouldn't lose conciousness before pushing a plane like that straight vertical like that?

The sort of thing that caused that JAL crash in 1985 could well have caused this one. Explosive decompression critically damaging flight controls caused by a shoddy repair and poor maintenance. We should find out fairly quickly assuming they find the flight recorders.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Could it have been something similar to that Japan Airlines 747, but more catastrophic? If I recall that one had a lot more plunges and then altitude gains before it finally crashed.

Can't see how a pilot wouldn't lose conciousness before pushing a plane like that straight vertical like that?

IIRC, that was a high altitude stall. 29,000 is not high altitude in aviation terms. 39,000, at weight limits, moving into warmer air, can lead to stall conditions. Any turbulence can lead to an upset under those conditions, which is why most pilots avoid them and allow themselves a few thousand feet and 10-20 kt buffer.

I doubt they were unconscious, unless there was an explosive decompression and they were unable to get to their O2 masks within their ”time of useful consciousness“ (TUC). However, at FL290, you TUC is plenty long enough to grab your mask…a few minutes before you go a bit loopy!





Now, if you are suggesting G-loads, they’re not that bad going straight down. In fact, pilots and passengers may well have experienced NEGATIVE Gs on the way down.

The last accident I remember where there was a plane that fell out of the sky and went straight down was off the coast of California, when a jackscrew failed in flight and the tail became completely ineffective.

Honestly, I think we would all be better served by waiting a while, rather than hypothesizing from initial descent details and a snippet of video. Lots of people died and there will be a reason discovered. Let’s not blame the pilots, mechanics, or manufacturer just yet. They’ll be plenty of time for that after spending some time being thankful for our good fortune at not being the parent or child of those that perished.

 

[cleavers]

No sharks on the train routes I normally use ;-)

Other than the operators ?

 

[cleavers]

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

Struck me as a bit strange, but I'm no expert, just a regular viewer of "Accident Investigation".

 

[west didsblue]

IIRC, that was a high altitude stall. 29,000 is not high altitude in aviation terms. 39,000, at weight limits, moving into warmer air, can lead to stall conditions. Any turbulence can lead to an upset under those conditions, which is why most pilots avoid them and allow themselves a few thousand feet and 10-20 kt buffer.

I doubt they were unconscious, unless there was an explosive decompression and they were unable to get to their O2 masks within their ”time of useful consciousness“ (TUC). However, at FL290, you TUC is plenty long enough to grab your mask…a few minutes before you go a bit loopy!



View attachment 39008

Now, if you are suggesting G-loads, they’re not that bad going straight down. In fact, pilots and passengers may well have experienced NEGATIVE Gs on the way down.

The last accident I remember where there was a plane that feel out of the sky and went straight down was off the coast of California, when a jackscrew failed in flight and the tail became completely ineffective.

Honestly, I think we would all be better served by waiting a while, rather than hypothesizing from initial descent details and a snippet of video. Lots of people died and there will be a reason discovered. Let’s not blame the pilots, mechanics, or manufacturer just yet. They’ll be plenty of time for that after spending some time being thankful for our good fortune at not being the parent or child of those that perished.

Was there a second JAL 747 that crashed?