I know the stats and I was looking solely at the PL numbers. Looking beyond the PL numbers is a poor representation. Sure Jesus has just less than Mane in all competitons but Jesus' favourable numbers in cup competitions comes when we play below par sides whereas someone like Mane is competing against better opposition for the most part. Hence the numbers would be skewed. If we look at just the PL, all teams face the same opponents hence the same difficulty, so a far better representation of how Jesus has done.
His 5 goals in the Champion's League don't count now? Seems weird.
So you purposefully misinterpreted his comment and then told him it was wrong.
I mean if you look at xG/90 and not overall xG (which would be naive if you did) you'd know they've always had similar numbers. This season there's something like 0.02 in it, and it was the same two seasons ago. And last season Jesus had a very very high xG/90.I would disagree with your evaluation of 23 year old Aguero. Aguero was very accomplished in linking up play and, at times, played just behind Dzeko and would be far more of a ball carrier than he is now. Aguero produced more assists, created 9 big chances compared to Jesus' 3 and played more passes per game. I'd also disagree about Jesus being better in his general movement or getting on the end of crosses; his movement is severely hindered by his poor awareness and Aguero was unbelievable anticipating where the ball would be as evidenced by multiple world class CBs such as Vidic lauding him at that age. All the attributes that are seen as necessary for a striker, Aguero was better than Jesus.
They also don't have a similar xG, Aguero's always been better despite Aguero playing for longer, against tougher opposition, under different systems and managers and having constant injuries that have disrupted his rhythm. Simply put it, Jesus isn't better than Aguero now and Aguero at 23 with his ridiculous acceleration, improved physicality and agility was miles better than the Jesus we're seeing now.
Thanks for putting numbers around what I've been trying to put on paper all day. Jesus and Aguero are such different types of strikers that comparing them solely through goal figures both sort of misses the point and also significantly underrates Jesus' contribution. I agree that we do need to buy a player who profiles more to Sergio's strengths whenever he does move on, but that doesn't mean there won't be a spot in the squad for the other type of player as well.I mean if you look at xG/90 and not overall xG (which would be naive if you did) you'd know they've always had similar numbers. This season there's something like 0.02 in it, and it was the same two seasons ago. And last season Jesus had a very very high xG/90.
It's hard to see your point when you're severely and deliberately underrating Jesus's awareness and movement. Compared to Aguero, his xG/shot is higher.
Now one of the things that's an obvious conclusion is Jesus currently lacks the finishing ability Aguero has. No question. But if Jesus's xG/shot is higher than Aguero's that means he gets better goalscoring opportunities than Aguero does. Now that means one of three things.
1) His movement to get on the end of chances is generally slightly better than Aguero's.
2) His movement (and link up play) in general is slightly better than Aguero's and helps his teammates create better chances for him.
3) Both of the above to some extent.
I actually made a mistake in my previous post as I'd meant to say Aguero is better at forging his own chances and Jesus has a habit of being in the right place more often and it's true. And this isn't necessarily aimed at you, but just in case people get the impression it's not that Aguero isn't a genius in his movement, it's just Jesus's big strength is his fantastic movement. He misses a lot, we know, but it's not a coincidence he gets so many chances to miss too.
Also, in general, Jesus has a higher XGChain/90 than Aguero (more involved in goal buildups), he has slightly more shot creating and goal creating actions/90, and also the team has a higher xG +-/90 (the expected score whilst on the pitch compared to off it) than Aguero.
Statistically, the underlying numbers consistently suggest that Jesus has a whale load of potential lying in there. His absolute biggest issue, that we know, is his finishing. And that could easily be put down to confidence as opposed to inability. But if he could improve his finishing, not necessarily to Aguero's lofty standards but to a more reasonable level of a PL striker with confidence, he'd be a bloody damn good forward.
It's easy to jump on the back of him given his recent goal drought but if we have the patience like we've shown with others there's every chance he'll flourish.
I got my stats off of Understat and fbref.
p.s. There's plenty of stats showing just how good Aguero is too. Just in different ways.
Compared the top 20 PL scorers (before Spurs v Everton tonight) to see what the trends were, and even I was quite surprised.
Top 20 goalscorers in the league
Goals
Vardy - 21
Aubameyang - 19
Ings - 18
Salah - 17
Aguero - 16
Mane - 16
Jimenez - 15
Martial - 15
Rashford - 15
Abraham - 13
Calvert-Lewin - 13
Kane - 13
Sterling - 13
De Bruyne - 11
Pukki - 11
Richarlison - 11
Wood - 11
Jesus - 10
Ayew - 9
Willian - 9
Minutes
Jimenez - 2820
Aubameyang - 2747
Ayew - 2747
Richarlison - 2704
Pukki - 2654
Vardy - 2584
Salah - 2520
De Bruyne - 2466
Mane - 2434
Ings - 2365
Sterling - 2343
Willian - 2276
Calvert-Lewin - 2212
Rashford - 2210
Martial - 2201
Wood - 2090
Abraham - 2059
Kane - 2050
Jesus - 1644
Aguero - 1460
Shots
Jimenez - 108
Salah - 108
De Bruyne - 91
Rashford - 83
Aubameyang - 82
Jesus - 81
Richarlison - 81
Sterling - 81
Abraham - 78
Ings - 78
Aguero - 76
Pukki - 76
Calvert-Lewin - 75
Martial - 69
Vardy - 69
Kane - 66
Mane - 65
Willian - 65
Wood - 53
Ayew - 52
Shots on Target
Salah - 47
Jesus - 40
Jimenez - 39
Vardy - 38
Aubameyang - 37
Rashford - 37
Abraham - 36
Martial - 35
Calvert-Lewin - 34
Pukki - 34
Ings - 32
Mane - 31
Richarlison - 30
Aguero - 28
De Bruyne - 28
Kane - 28
Sterling - 27
Wood - 26
Willian - 25
Ayew - 23
Shot Accuracy
Vardy - 38/69 = 55.1%
Martial - 35/69 = 50.7%
Jesus - 40/81 = 49.4%
Wood - 26/53 = 49.1%
Mane - 31/65 = 47.7%
Abraham - 36/78 = 46.2%
Calvert-Lewin - 34/75 = 45.3%
Aubameyang - 37/82 = 45.1%
Pukki - 34/76 = 44.7%
Ayew - 23/52 = 44.2%
Rashford - 37/83 = 44.6%
Salah - 47/108 = 43.5%
Kane - 28/66 = 42.4%
Ings - 32/78 - 41%
Willian - 25/65 = 38.5%
Richarlison - 30/81 = 37%
Aguero - 28/76 = 36.8%
Jimenez - 39/108 = 36.1%
Sterling - 27/81 = 33.3%
De Bruyne - 28/91 = 30.8%
Conversion Rate
Vardy - 21/69 = 30.4%
Mane - 16/65 = 24.6%
Aubameyang - 19/82 = 23.2%
Ings - 18/78 = 23.1%
Martial - 15/69 = 21.7%
Aguero - 16/76 = 21.1%
Wood - 11/53 = 20.8%
Kane - 13/66 = 19.7%
Rashford - 15/83 = 18.1%
Ayew - 9/52 = 17.3%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/75 = 17.3%
Abraham - 13/78 = 16.7%
Sterling - 13/81 = 16.1%
Salah - 17/108 = 15.7%
Pukki - 11/76 = 14.5%
Jimenez - 15/108 = 13.9%
Willian - 9/65 = 13.8%
Richarlison - 11/81 = 13.7%
Jesus - 10/81 = 12.4%
De Bruyne - 11/91 = 12.1%
On Target Conversion Rate
Aguero - 16/28 = 57.1%
Ings - 18/32 = 56.3%
Vardy - 21/38 = 55.3%
Mane - 16/31 = 51.6%
Aubameyang - 19/37 = 51.4%
Sterling - 13/27 = 48.1%
Kane - 13/28 = 46.4%
Martial - 15/35 = 42.9%
Wood - 11/26 = 42.3%
Rashford - 15/37 = 40.6%
De Bruyne - 11/28 = 39.3%
Ayew - 9/23 = 39.1%
Jimenez - 15/39 = 38.5%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/34 = 38.2%
Richarlison - 11/30 = 36.7%
Salah - 17/47 = 36.2%
Abraham - 13/36 = 36.1%
Willian - 9/25 = 36%
Pukki - 11/34 = 32.4%
Jesus - 10/40 = 25%
Minutes per Goal
Aguero - 1460/16 = 91.25
Vardy - 2584/21 = 123.1
Ings - 2365/18 = 131.4
Aubameyang - 2747/19 = 144.6
Martial - 2201/15 = 146.7
Salah - 2520/17 = 148.23
Mane - 2434/16 = 152.12
Kane - 2050/13 = 157.7
Abraham - 2059/13 = 158.4
Jesus - 1644/10 = 164.4
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/13 = 170.15
Sterling - 2343/13 = 180.2
Jimenez - 2820/15 = 188
Wood - 2090/11 = 190
De Bruyne 2466/11 = 224.18
Pukki 2654/11 = 241.3
Richarlison - 2704/11 - 245.8
Willian - 2276/9 = 252.9
Ayew - 2747/9 = 305.2
Shots per Goal
Vardy - 69/21 = 3.29
Mane - 65/16 = 4.06
Aubameyang - 82/19 = 4.32
Ings - 78/18 = 4.33
Martial - 69/15 = 4.6
Aguero - 76/16 = 4.75
Wood - 53/11 - 4.82
Kane - 66/13 = 5.08
Rashford - 83/15 = 5.33
Calvert-Lewin - 75/13 = 5.77
Ayew - 52/9 = 5.78
Abraham - 78/13 = 6
Sterling - 81/13 = 6.23
Salah - 108/17 = 6.35
Pukki - 76/11 = 6.91
Jimenez - 108/15 = 7.2
Willian - 65/9 = 7.22
Richarlison - 81/11 - 7.36
Jesus - 81/10 = 8.1
De Bruyne - 91/11 = 8.27
Shots on Target per Goal
Aguero - 28/16 = 1.75
Ings - 32/18 = 1.78
Vardy - 38/21 = 1.81
Mane - 31/16 = 1.94
Aubameyang - 37/19 = 1.95
Sterling - 27/13 = 2.08
Kane - 28/13 - 2.15
Martial - 35/15 = 2.33
Wood - 26/11 = 2.36
Rashford - 37/15 = 2.47
De Bruyne - 28/11 - 2.55
Ayew - 23/9 = 2.56
Jimenez - 39/15 = 2.6
Calvert-Lewin - 34/13 = 2.62
Richarlison - 30/11 = 2.73
Salah - 47/17 = 2.76
Abraham - 13/36 = 2.77
Willian - 25/9 = 2.78
Pukki - 34/11 = 3.09
Jesus - 40/10 = 4.
Minutes per Shot
Aguero - 1460/76 = 19.2
Jesus - 1644/81 = 20.3
Salah - 2520/108 = 23.3
Jimenez - 2820/108 = 26.1
Abraham - 2059/78 = 26.4
Rashford - 2210/83 = 26.6
De Bruyne 2466/91 = 27.1
Sterling - 2343/81 = 28.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/75 = 29.5
Ings - 2365/78 = 30.3
Kane - 2050/66 = 31.1
Martial - 2201/69 = 31.9
Richarlison - 2704/81 = 33.4
Aubameyang - 2747/82 = 33.5
Pukki - 2654/76 = 34.9
Willian - 2276/65 = 35
Vardy - 2584/69 = 37.5
Mane - 2434/65 = 37.5
Wood - 2090/53 = 39.4
Ayew - 2747/52 = 52.8
Minutes per Shots on Target
Jesus - 1644/40 = 41.1
Aguero - 1460/28 = 52.1
Salah - 2520/47 = 53.6
Abraham - 2059/36 = 57.2
Rashford - 2210/37 = 59.7
Martial - 2201/35 = 62.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/34 = 65.1
Vardy - 2584/38 = 68
Jimenez - 2820/39 = 72.3
Kane - 2050/28 = 73.2
Ings - 2365/32 = 73.9
Aubameyang - 2747/37 = 74.2
Pukki - 2654/34 = 78.1
Mane - 2434/31 = 78.5
Wood - 2090/26 = 80.4
Sterling - 2343/27 = 86.8
De Bruyne - 2466/28 = 88.1
Richarlison - 2704/30 = 90.1
Willian - 2276/25 = 91
Ayew - 2747/23 = 119.4
Jesus has the second fewest minutes, but the second most shots on target. He is 3rd for shot accuracy, showing that he regularly hits the target and his chances are good enough for him to do so. So from that, you'd think lots of goals?
Well, he comes in second lowest in overall conversion rate, at 12.4%. It's low, but there are other more potent strikers like Jimenez, whose rate is not much better, so you're thinking, maybe it's quality of chance or some other factor.
Then you look at shots on target conversion rate, and he's suddenly bottom and at least 11% behind every other striker apart from Pukki, who plays in a Norwich team that has capitulated in the second half of the season towards relegation. This suddenly makes it clear where a striker who has a high shot accuracy and lots of shots on target doesn't score any goals.
It's backed up by switching the conversion rate into number of shots needed to score. Jesus is second bottom overall and bottom for shots on target, as you can see he is taking twice as many as would be considered good. Even more starkly, Jesus and Aguero have shots more frequently than any of the top 20, and Jesus is the only player to have a shot on target in every single half on average.
What does this show? That ultimately Jesus gets in good positions, gets plenty of chances, hits the target, but doesn't score. That's why he's so frustrating, whereas Raheem misses the target far more often but when he does hit the target, his scoring rate is good. Jesus has a fundamental flaw that means he's not prolific.
At Jesus rate of shots on target, if he'd had Jimenez playing time of 2,820 minutes, he'd have had 68 shots on target. At his shots on target conversion rate, he'd have scored 17 goals. With the same number of shots on target, Sergio would have 38 goals, Vardy 37 and Calvert-Lewin 25.
In fact if Aguero and Vardy had had Jesus 40 shots on target he'd have 22 goals and Ayew would have 17 goals.
If Vardy had had Jesus conversion rate, he'd have only 9 league goals and Aguero would have 7.
So, for all the talk, it all boils down to a man with the best chances, the most frequent chances, the ability to hit the target but the complete inability to hit the back of the net. That's why people are so frustrated, and that's why they're looking at alternatives.
I mean if you look at xG/90 and not overall xG (which would be naive if you did) you'd know they've always had similar numbers. This season there's something like 0.02 in it, and it was the same two seasons ago. And last season Jesus had a very very high xG/90.
It's hard to see your point when you're severely and deliberately underrating Jesus's awareness and movement. Compared to Aguero, his xG/shot is higher.
Now one of the things that's an obvious conclusion is Jesus currently lacks the finishing ability Aguero has. No question. But if Jesus's xG/shot is higher than Aguero's that means he gets better goalscoring opportunities than Aguero does. Now that means one of three things.
1) His movement to get on the end of chances is generally slightly better than Aguero's.
2) His movement (and link up play) in general is slightly better than Aguero's and helps his teammates create better chances for him.
3) Both of the above to some extent.
I actually made a mistake in my previous post as I'd meant to say Aguero is better at forging his own chances and Jesus has a habit of being in the right place more often and it's true. And this isn't necessarily aimed at you, but just in case people get the impression it's not that Aguero isn't a genius in his movement, it's just Jesus's big strength is his fantastic movement. He misses a lot, we know, but it's not a coincidence he gets so many chances to miss too. He has the highest non-penalty xG overall in the league and he only plays half of the time!
Also, in general, Jesus has a higher XGChain/90 than Aguero (more involved in goal buildups), he has slightly more shot creating and goal creating actions/90, and also the team has a higher xG +-/90 (the expected score whilst on the pitch compared to off it) than Aguero.
Statistically, the underlying numbers consistently suggest that Jesus has a whale load of potential lying in there. His absolute biggest issue, that we know, is his finishing. And that could easily be put down to confidence as opposed to inability. But if he could improve his finishing, not necessarily to Aguero's lofty standards but to a more reasonable level of a PL striker with confidence, he'd be a bloody damn good forward.
It's easy to jump on the back of him given his recent goal drought but if we have the patience like we've shown with others there's every chance he'll flourish.
I got my stats off of Understat and fbref.
p.s. There's plenty of stats showing just how good Aguero is too. Just in different ways.
opinions, i can get behind that, and Gabby is in a slump no doubt, but Aguero never did? but i disagree with how good you seem to think those chances were.he had 6 chances yesterday, he has no excuse.