A Stat Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero (Update pg 10)

[NorCalBlue]

Considering pretty much everyone (supporters and detractors alike) agrees that we don't play to his strengths, I think it's pretty amazing that over two full seasons, the team has scored at almost exactly the same rate with Dzeko starting as it has with either Aguero or Tevez starting.

Imagine how we might have done if we'd actually played to his strengths (which is possibly what happens when he comes on as a sub and we're desperate for goals, having failed to make the necessary breakthrough with our normal style of play).

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

In the games Dzeko was an unused sub we have; won 5, drawn 1, lost 0
In the games Tevez was an unused sub we have; won 2, drawn 2, lost 0*
In the games Aguero was an unused sub we have; won 0, drawn 0, lost 2


*We lost to Southamption when he was out of the squad for personal reasons not injury

There's a statistical comparison

Yes, that is (technically) a statistical comparison, just not a very good one. You seem to be trying to get at how well we do when each of them is absent (although for some bizarre reason, you've only included games in which each player was sitting on the bench for the entire game rather than simply didn't play, suggesting that being on the bench, but never coming on has some sort of backwards causality that affects the result - how do the players on the field know a sub will be unused until the very end?). Looking at team results when a player is absent is similar, but not as good as, looking at team results when each one is playing, which I've done for every minute played by each of them, both this season and last (a player's absence might have an indirect effect, but a players presence has a direct effect).

As well as choosing a strange way of measuring effectiveness, your sample sizes are extremely small (only 2 games in which Aguero was an unused sub - away at Real Madrid and away at Spurs). You've complained that I'm condescending, so I won't be, in which case I must assume you understand why this sort of sample size yields significantly less meaningful results than the much larger sample size I used.

However, my time looking at your data hasn't been completely wasted. I started this thread to show that whatever people think about Dzeko's ability on the field, it's a fact that he's been a very effective striker for us over the last two seasons (slightly more so than Tevez, and slightly less than Aguero). But what also interests me is how so many people can be so wrong about that fact. Now, I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong about his effort, or his control, or his shooting, or any other specific aspect of his game, because that's not the point I'm trying to make. Just that if you ask those same people, I'm sure they'd also believe that he's simply been less effective for the team (hence comments like "Dzeko must not play this week" or "No Dzeko, no problem"), whereas, however he manages it, he's certainly not a detriment to the team, and in fact compares very favorably with both Tevez and Aguero.

So why don't people realize that? I think your data is a clue - you've focussed on just a few games in which you were probably glad to see Dzeko sitting on the bench the whole time. "Yes!" you probably said to yourself, "We'll definitely get a good result now!". And on three recent big occasions (Chelsea at home, United away, and Chelsea in the FA Cup), you were right. These situations confirm your suspicions and weigh much more heavily in your memory than all the games and minutes when Dzeko played and we also did well. That's where a good statistical analysis can help out, because it weighs every minute equally which the human brain doesn't.

Obviously this response (that you asked for) will have no effect on your opinions or your posts. We won't be able to have a reasoned debate based on the facts. You'll simply accuse me of somehow twisting the data, act petulantly, maybe make a dig about my ability to appreciate and understand the subtleties of the game, and then move on to other threads to be argumentative without adding anything of value to the discussion. Have fun with that, and feel free to bump my threads any time you like.

 

[pudge]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

In the games Dzeko was an unused sub we have; won 5, drawn 1, lost 0
In the games Tevez was an unused sub we have; won 2, drawn 2, lost 0*
In the games Aguero was an unused sub we have; won 0, drawn 0, lost 2


*We lost to Southamption when he was out of the squad for personal reasons not injury

There's a statistical comparison

Yes, that is (technically) a statistical comparison, just not a very good one. You seem to be trying to get at how well we do when each of them is absent (although for some bizarre reason, you've only included games in which each player was sitting on the bench for the entire game rather than simply didn't play, suggesting that being on the bench, but never coming on has some sort of backwards causality that affects the result - how do the players on the field know a sub will be unused until the very end?). Looking at team results when a player is absent is similar, but not as good as, looking at team results when each one is playing, which I've done for every minute played by each of them, both this season and last (a player's absence might have an indirect effect, but a players presence has a direct effect).

As well as choosing a strange way of measuring effectiveness, your sample sizes are extremely small (only 2 games in which Aguero was an unused sub - away at Real Madrid and away at Spurs). You've complained that I'm condescending, so I won't be, in which case I must assume you understand why this sort of sample size yields significantly less meaningful results than the much larger sample size I used.

However, my time looking at your data hasn't been completely wasted. I started this thread to show that whatever people think about Dzeko's ability on the field, it's a fact that he's been a very effective striker for us over the last two seasons (slightly more so than Tevez, and slightly less than Aguero). But what also interests me is how so many people can be so wrong about that fact. Now, I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong about his effort, or his control, or his shooting, or any other specific aspect of his game, because that's not the point I'm trying to make. Just that if you ask those same people, I'm sure they'd also believe that he's simply been less effective for the team (hence comments like "Dzeko must not play this week" or "No Dzeko, no problem"), whereas, however he manages it, he's certainly not a detriment to the team, and in fact compares very favorably with both Tevez and Aguero.

So why don't people realize that? I think your data is a clue - you've focussed on just a few games in which you were probably glad to see Dzeko sitting on the bench the whole time. "Yes!" you probably said to yourself, "We'll definitely get a good result now!". And on three recent big occasions (Chelsea at home, United away, and Chelsea in the FA Cup), you were right. These situations confirm your suspicions and weigh much more heavily in your memory than all the games and minutes when Dzeko played and we also did well. That's where a good statistical analysis can help out, because it weighs every minute equally which the human brain doesn't.

Obviously this response (that you asked for) will have no effect on your opinions or your posts. We won't be able to have a reasoned debate based on the facts. You'll simply accuse me of somehow twisting the data, act petulantly, maybe make a dig about my ability to appreciate and understand the subtleties of the game, and then move on to other threads to be argumentative without adding anything of value to the discussion. Have fun with that, and feel free to bump my threads any time you like.

I'd simply just highlight that you are still being condescending.

How can someone be expected to have a reasoned debate with someone when they will just talk down to them?

I didn't include games when our strikers didn't play altogether because Sergio was injured for 2 extended periods of time and that would skew any stats even further than you believe they are now. Not so bizarre when you take that into account.

And your statistical comparison yields very little in regards to the TEAM when any of the strikers play. Points, goals scored, conceded in relation to them, fine. But what about possession? Overall pass accuracy? Fouls won/conceded? Average distance travelled (a common stat presented during CL games)

You rate Dzeko, you have said as much. And this thread was created to simply support your own agenda, Dzeko. Fair enough, but a new thread wasn't warranted and neither were the not so subtle bumps and condescension.

You waited an entire day to bump this thread, almost 4, that's right FOUR, days since my post that you bumped. That shows me that you don't want a reasoned debate, you just want to look smug.

I haven't acted petulantly at any stage, you on the other hand have seemingly ignored my posts. And actually addressed me with;

Hey, you're back! I thought you'd lost interest for a minute there, or were recuperating after being hit over the head with the facts too often. I'm not sure where irony comes into it - I have data to back up my statement, whereas you only appear to have elementary-level debating tactics on your side. Entertaining though, I'll give you that.

That quote by yourself demonstrates, condescension, petulance and just your overall contribution.

Respond in whatever way you see fit because I won't be able to read it, I'll know better to just ignore you from this point onwards with the foe option so that other threads don't get needlessly derailed

 

[ManCFC19]

Interesting stats there..I think a few other things have to be said(about Dzeko) as well..


1) His conditioning is definitely not where it should be..this is obvious from him looking tired(seen as lazy) way too much.
2) The team doesn't play direct football that suits him(this whole back and forth Barca style with the ball just doesn't work with him in the lineup). He'd kill in more direct system.
3) Formation should always be 4-2-3-1 with Dzeko as the lone striker and plenty of creativity in midfield. Once he makes those runs, you feed him not go sideways or change your mind.
4) As much as his work ethic isn't up to par, he's an extremely smart player and has scored plenty of goals in the last few years even playing on a crappy Wolfsburg team. You simply cannot ignore the stats when it's done over a number of years..It's very difficult to be this lucky or whatever simpletons think of him.
5) He plays in spurts but most times he does it so well. When he comes in and wants the ball and the right system is played, there is not many other players i'd want more..Very dangerous in the air, can physically intimidate and because he saves his energy for those moments, it's easy to see that his running(for a big man) is extremely effective and it makes it that much more difficult to guard him.

I think there is very little room for him to grow but if he can take it up a notch with his conditioning, i think he can be a true force and bring this team where it needs to be. On top!

 

[El Mago Silva]

Here is another interesting (yet hardly surprising statistic):
Pass Completion Percentage
Tevez: 84.1
Kun: 82.3
Dzeko: 69.3
Source - whoscored.com

The problem with Edin isn't necessarily his finishing - it's his inability to keep possession (I don't believe he attempts more difficult passes than our other strikers, but I could look up his chance creation numbers at some point to verify...). He is not dispossesed of the ball as often as Kun or Carlo, but he does not have the ball at his feet nearly as often and does not generally take on defenders.

Good discussion ;)

 

[humantrain]

Tevez is more of a CAM/CF. He can setup goals and score goals. That's why he should always start. Dzeko and Aguero should be sharing the striker position. Unfortunately Mancini used to sub Tevez with Dzeko all the time. It's not good to have Aguero and Dzeko playing together because you lose the creativity. On many occasions Dzeko comes on for Tevez and Dzeko goes into striker position with Aguero behind him. Aguero gets wasted in that CAM/CF position. He simply is not good enough in that position. The other formation is the 4-2-2-2 where Aguero and Dzeko play next to each other .. this is a formation that suits them however you lose creativity and strength in midfield.

Solution is to sell Aguero. He can't head the ball which means that you always need to have another striker that can head the ball on the bench. Aguero also struggles as the 2nd striker. He's great finisher with great pace but he's not a complete striker and therefore we need to replace him with someone better.

 

[El Mago Silva]

Tevez is more of a CAM/CF. He can setup goals and score goals. That's why he should always start. Dzeko and Aguero should be sharing the striker position. Unfortunately Mancini used to sub Tevez with Dzeko all the time. It's not good to have Aguero and Dzeko playing together because you lose the creativity. On many occasions Dzeko comes on for Tevez and Dzeko goes into striker position with Aguero behind him. Aguero gets wasted in that CAM/CF position. He simply is not good enough in that position. The other formation is the 4-2-2-2 where Aguero and Dzeko play next to each other .. this is a formation that suits them however you lose creativity and strength in midfield.

Solution is to sell Aguero. He can't head the ball which means that you always need to have another striker that can head the ball on the bench. Aguero also struggles as the 2nd striker. He's great finisher with great pace but he's not a complete striker and therefore we need to replace him with someone better.

Sell Kun? Yes, and Barca should sell Messi because he "can't head the ball". Did you see the winning goal against Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi?

Also, please don't forget that Kun turns 25 this June and has by far the best attitude of any of our strikers. Carlo turns 30 next February while Dzeko is 27.

 

[humantrain]

Tevez is more of a CAM/CF. He can setup goals and score goals. That's why he should always start. Dzeko and Aguero should be sharing the striker position. Unfortunately Mancini used to sub Tevez with Dzeko all the time. It's not good to have Aguero and Dzeko playing together because you lose the creativity. On many occasions Dzeko comes on for Tevez and Dzeko goes into striker position with Aguero behind him. Aguero gets wasted in that CAM/CF position. He simply is not good enough in that position. The other formation is the 4-2-2-2 where Aguero and Dzeko play next to each other .. this is a formation that suits them however you lose creativity and strength in midfield.

Solution is to sell Aguero. He can't head the ball which means that you always need to have another striker that can head the ball on the bench. Aguero also struggles as the 2nd striker. He's great finisher with great pace but he's not a complete striker and therefore we need to replace him with someone better.

Sell Kun? Yes, and Barca should sell Messi because he "can't head the ball". Did you see the winning goal against Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi?

Also, please don't forget that Kun turns 25 this June and has by far the best attitude of any of our strikers. Carlo turns 30 next February while Dzeko is 27.

Messi mostly plays in midfield.

Can Aguero play in midfield and perform there consistently ? No he cant. Should he play as a striker ? No he shouldn't because he can't head the ball which means that the team has play through the middle every time he's on. We can upgrade Aguero there's no shame in that. Cavani would be the perfect replacement.

Difficult to replace Tevez.. there's not many like him. Perhaps Wayne Rooney would be a good buy.

 

[taconinja]

Tevez is more of a CAM/CF. He can setup goals and score goals. That's why he should always start. Dzeko and Aguero should be sharing the striker position. Unfortunately Mancini used to sub Tevez with Dzeko all the time. It's not good to have Aguero and Dzeko playing together because you lose the creativity. On many occasions Dzeko comes on for Tevez and Dzeko goes into striker position with Aguero behind him. Aguero gets wasted in that CAM/CF position. He simply is not good enough in that position. The other formation is the 4-2-2-2 where Aguero and Dzeko play next to each other .. this is a formation that suits them however you lose creativity and strength in midfield.

Solution is to sell Aguero. He can't head the ball which means that you always need to have another striker that can head the ball on the bench. Aguero also struggles as the 2nd striker. He's great finisher with great pace but he's not a complete striker and therefore we need to replace him with someone better.

Sell Kun? Yes, and Barca should sell Messi because he "can't head the ball". Did you see the winning goal against Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi?

Also, please don't forget that Kun turns 25 this June and has by far the best attitude of any of our strikers. Carlo turns 30 next February while Dzeko is 27.

Messi mostly plays in midfield.

Can Aguero play in midfield and perform there consistently ? No he cant. Should he play as a striker ? No he shouldn't because he can't head the ball which means that the team has play through the middle every time he's on. We can upgrade Aguero there's no shame in that. Cavani would be the perfect replacement.

Difficult to replace Tevez.. there's not many like him. Perhaps Wayne Rooney would be a good buy.

If we get Cavani, Dzeko is toast. Why drink water when you have champagne?

 

[FlatlineMonday]

If we get Cavani, Dzeko is toast. Why drink water when you have champagne?

No guarantee city can get Cavani. Anyway, I believe that Dzeko would do very well at city with a manager like Pellegrini at the helm... but Cavani would do better.