A Stat Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero (Update pg 10)

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

There you go again, it does not take supreme cognitive power to realise Dzeko is a lazy twat and your stats do not even try to measure laziness arsedness do they? So as I say the human eye is not lying nor is the brain that is interpeting the signals. It's all quite simple really.

I wasn't trying to measure laziness. That's not the point. I was just trying to see what affect each player (and each pair) had on the team performance, regardless of how they do it, and over a large number of games the results are what they are.

 

[EricBrooksGhost]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

There you go again, it does not take supreme cognitive power to realise Dzeko is a lazy twat and your stats do not even try to measure laziness arsedness do they? So as I say the human eye is not lying nor is the brain that is interpeting the signals. It's all quite simple really.

I wasn't trying to measure laziness. That's not the point. I was just trying to see what affect each player (and each pair) had on the team performance, regardless of how they do it, and over a large number of games the results are what they are.

This what you said " Maybe when Tevez and Aguero are running around, everyone else thinks they can take a breather and let them do it all. And maybe when the rest of the team see Dzeko being a lazy **** they work twice as hard to take up the slack." You are implying him being a lazy shit is good for the team, seriously go and have a lie down before you reply.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

I don't know whether this is relevant or not, but I like the combination of statistics that looks more like this:

Goals/Games/Miles run.

I'm one of Dzeko's biggest critics. Appreciate what he's done, some important moments, but the strolling and lack of interest of late spells out fuck of from me.

To be honest, I haven't watched the Spurs game yet. I was out at the time and heard the result, and I haven't been able to bring myself to watch it, so I can't comment on how lazy Dzeko might have been on Sunday (it's also hard to assess laziness on TV, because if a player's being lazy, it's usually away from the ball, off camera). So let's say it's true that he was lazy and useless, and let's say he's been that way for a few games now. What we're talking about is a very small part of the season. It's the most recent, so it's understandable that it's fresh in our minds, but it's still statistically insignificant and ignores the vastly larger sample (the whole season) during which he's been a very effective player for the team (however lazy/useless/whatever you think he's been). Almost all players go through periods where they appear lazy and useless (Yaya, Barry, Nasri, Tevez, right off the top of my head), which is why it's best to look at the whole season rather than one small part of it.

Obviously I can't give you any stats for 'miles run', and they'd be somewhat irrelevant in any assessment of effectiveness anyway - some players run a lot, others don't, and I doubt there's a strong correlation between distance run and effectiveness in the team (a lot of it depends on position and style of player). If there was, maybe we should sign Mo Farah.

And if I wanted to cherry-pick a stat that might show something positive about Dzeko relative to Tevez/Aguero, I'd like to see how often they all pass to a player in a better position than them when they're within shooting distance of the goal, instead of running down a blind alley and losing the ball.

 

[The Road Sweeper]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Decent effort, but you can't ignore certain variables such as the quality of opposition. Generally you only play each team twice, so if striker "a" plays 8 times against the top 4 teams and is rested against the bottom 4 teams his goal/effective ratio is likely to be worse than striker "b" who doesn't play against the top teams but does against the bottom teams.

One way around this would be to use a weighting system for the opposition and the amount of minutes played. For example, playing 180 minutes against Arsenal is likely to dilute a striker's stats, whereas a striker playing 180 minutes against Reading is likely to improve a striker's average.

I've no idea how you would do this, as it is difficult to scientifically rate a team without allowing for subjective opinion on the quality of other teams to influence a weighting system. The league table is probably a decent indicator of quality, but then you've got variables in that, e.g. the actual team they put out, when we played them, key players missing for them, etc.

I'm no scientist nor statistician, but I'm sure you can give it a go!

 

[B\connellblue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable. The only fact that matters is Kun and carlos put in a shift Edin does not. I would love to see the stats relating to controlling the ball (ie first touch)!

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

There you go again, it does not take supreme cognitive power to realise Dzeko is a lazy twat and your stats do not even try to measure laziness arsedness do they? So as I say the human eye is not lying nor is the brain that is interpeting the signals. It's all quite simple really.

I wasn't trying to measure laziness. That's not the point. I was just trying to see what affect each player (and each pair) had on the team performance, regardless of how they do it, and over a large number of games the results are what they are.

This what you said " Maybe when Tevez and Aguero are running around, everyone else thinks they can take a breather and let them do it all. And maybe when the rest of the team see Dzeko being a lazy **** they work twice as hard to take up the slack." You are implying him being a lazy shit is good for the team, seriously go and have a lie down before you reply.

Ha! You didn't get that at all, did you? I was simply saying that if Dzeko has been a lazy **** all season (as has been suggested), there must be some reason why the team does so well when he starts, in spite of this fact. One possible explanation (which I don't believe, by the way - I was being slightly facetious) is that the team works harder to compensate for his laziness.

If you want my best explanation, it's that he's not a lazy **** at all (at least not often) and in fact contributes a lot to the team performance, even though many fans don't see it.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Decent effort, but you can't ignore certain variables such as the quality of opposition. Generally you only play each team twice, so if striker "a" plays 8 times against the top 4 teams and is rested against the bottom 4 teams his goal/effective ratio is likely to be worse than striker "b" who doesn't play against the top teams but does against the bottom teams.

One way around this would be to use a weighting system for the opposition and the amount of minutes played. For example, playing 180 minutes against Arsenal is likely to dilute a striker's stats, whereas a striker playing 180 minutes against Reading is likely to improve a striker's average.

I've no idea how you would do this, as it is difficult to scientifically rate a team without allowing for subjective opinion on the quality of other teams to influence a weighting system. The league table is probably a decent indicator of quality, but then you've got variables in that, e.g. the actual team they put out, when we played them, key players missing for them, etc.

I'm no scientist nor statistician, but I'm sure you can give it a go!

In theory, you're absolutely right, and if you could somehow rate every team's performance on the day (because a top team might play crap, and a crap team might play brilliantly) it would obviously be better. But we can't do that (at least not without including our own bias into the data, which would defeat the object of the exercize). However, if you look at the data you can see that each player played a pretty wide range of teams over the season, so I think that a lot of the problems you bring up aren't quite as serious as you might think. The one exception may be that Tevez has helped out his stats quite a bit recently against Championship teams in the FA Cup, but he also played a lot of tougher games earlier in the season, so even considering this, I think the stats still give us the most accurate picture of how effective they've all been, and is certainly more reliable than anecdotal evidence from a few memorable games.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable. The only fact that matters is Kun and carlos put in a shift Edin does not. I would love to see the stats relating to controlling the ball (ie first touch)!

Kun and Carlos putting in a shift is exactly the fact that doesn't matter in this discussion. You might like to see it as a fan, but my only concern is what works for the team, and apparently them putting in a shift doesn't work (at least not appreciably better than whatever the hell it is that Dzeko does).

And although I would also be interested to see stats on Dzeko's first touch (because I suspect they're not nearly as bad as people think either), that is also irrelevant to this discussion, except that if he's as effective as he is with a crap first touch, imagine how effective he'd be if he ever improved it.

 

[EricBrooksGhost]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

I wasn't trying to measure laziness. That's not the point. I was just trying to see what affect each player (and each pair) had on the team performance, regardless of how they do it, and over a large number of games the results are what they are.

This what you said " Maybe when Tevez and Aguero are running around, everyone else thinks they can take a breather and let them do it all. And maybe when the rest of the team see Dzeko being a lazy **** they work twice as hard to take up the slack." You are implying him being a lazy shit is good for the team, seriously go and have a lie down before you reply.

Ha! You didn't get that at all, did you? I was simply saying that if Dzeko has been a lazy **** all season (as has been suggested), there must be some reason why the team does so well when he starts, in spite of this fact. One possible explanation (which I don't believe, by the way - I was being slightly facetious) is that the team works harder to compensate for his laziness.

Ift*** at all (at least not often) and in fact contributes a lot to the team performance, even though many fans don't see it.

Stats one minute, opinion the next which is it ? You have tried to dismiss other peoples opinions which don't comply with your stats , your opinion is different which is fine(and a good thing, we can't always agree) but it is an opinion nothing more.

 

[AntiUnited]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable. The only fact that matters is Kun and carlos put in a shift Edin does not. I would love to see the stats relating to controlling the ball (ie first touch)!

Kun and Carlos putting in a shift is exactly the fact that doesn't matter in this discussion. You might like to see it as a fan, but my only concern is what works for the team, and apparently them putting in a shift doesn't work (at least not appreciably better than whatever the hell it is that Dzeko does).

And although I would also be interested to see stats on Dzeko's first touch (because I suspect they're not nearly as bad as people think either), that is also irrelevant to this discussion, except that if he's as effective as he is with a crap first touch, imagine how effective he'd be if he ever improved it.

Thank you!! " and apparently them putting in a shift doesn't work (at least not appreciably better than whatever the hell it is that Dzeko does)'''this and this again. RUNNING AROUND like a headless chicken and not scoring the goal does not mean anything at all for a striker.