[Mods: I know there are tons of threads about our strikers, but I couldn't find one that compares all three in this way - I was castigated by one poster for trying to compare Aguero to Dzeko on a Dzeko thread, because apparently I was only allowed to talk about Dzeko on that thread...]
Comparisons of our three strikers fill pages and pages of Bluemoon, but pretty much all of it is subjective (from all sides of the debates). Just like political discussions, very few people are likely to change their entrenched views based on reasoned arguments from the other side. So instead of another failed attempt to convince everyone that I know best, I decided to investigate the question using hard data instead. [Full disclosure: I feel Dzeko is hugely underrated by Bluemooners, but as a trained scientist, I’ve tried not to let this affect my analysis; I haven’t cherry-picked the data to support an agenda – all 45 competitive games are included. Incidentally, I was really surprised by how many minutes Dzeko has played this season (the same as Aguero) which shows some confirmational bias on my part – I thought he was being treated unfairly by Mancini, so I remembered the times he didn’t play more than the times he did]
We’ve played 45 competitive games this season, starting with the home game against Southampton, and ending (ignominiously) at White Hart Lane. That’s a lot of minutes of play in 4 competitions, and thanks to the fixture section on mcfc.co.uk, that shows teams, times of substitutions, and goals for every game, I’ve been able to collect a large amount of data on Tevez, Aguero, and Dzeko.
For each player I counted up minutes played, goals scored, as well as team goals scored and conceded (I did this for games they started and also when they came on as a sub). I also looked at the three pairings (Tevez/Dzeko, Aguero/Dzeko, and Tevez/Aguero) to see how the team performed when they were on the pitch together. In all cases, I assumed 45 min first halves and 94 min matches when calculating minutes played.
Total playing time (games @ 94 min/game);
Aguero 25.0 (incl. 2.7 as sub), Tevez 31.6 (2.2), Dzeko 25.2 (5.1)
Goals per game (parenthesis shows goals as a starter and as a sub);
Aguero 0.60 (0.58/0.75), Tevez 0.51 (0.51/0.45), Dzeko 0.56 (0.40/1.19)
Note: the data is better when they start games than when they come on as a sub, because it has a much bigger sample size. For example, if Tevez came on as sub after 74 minutes in the next game and scored, his goals per game as sub would change from 0.45 to 0.82. However, if he played for 74 minutes and then came off after scoring, his goals per game as a starter would only change from 0.51 to 0.53.
Putting their goal scoring as a starter in terms of equivalent goals for the whole season (playing every minute of all 45 games);
Goals for the season (when starting); Aguero 26, Tevez 23, Dzeko 18
This supports those who feel that Tevez and Aguero are more likely to score when they start than Dzeko. But if we’re supporting the team rather than an individual, we should care more about how many goals the team scores, not how many an individual scores; it’s possible for a striker to help the team get goals without getting them himself. Since each striker has played at least 20 full games as a starter (calculated from total minutes @ 94 min/game), the following data should be pretty statistically sound;
Team goals per game as a starter (for/against);
Aguero 1.74/1.07, Tevez 1.91/0.99, Dzeko 1.89/1.14
Putting this in terms of equivalent goals for the whole season (45 games);
Team goals for the season as a starter (for/against);
Aguero 79/48, Tevez 86/44, Dzeko 85/51
This suggests that there’s basically not a lot of difference between the three strikers as far as team performance is concerned. However, if you want to read something into the small differences (which may well be noise), as a team, we are most effective with Tevez starting. Although we score about the same number of goals if Dzeko starts, Tevez appears to help us concede fewer goals. Aguero also appears to give us slightly better defense than Dzeko, but we score fewer goals as well, making Dzeko a more effective starter than Aguero overall.
What about the strike partnerships - which pairing is most effective? The three pairings were together on the field for the following number of games (assuming 94 min/game);
Total playing time (games);
Tevez/Dzeko 15.2, Aguero/Dzeko 11.3, Tevez/Aguero 12.7
Again, I think these are statistically relevant amounts of time, and that the data produced is meaningful. The team goals for/against are as follows;
Team goals per game (for/against);
Tevez/Dzeko 2.37/1.12, Aguero/Dzeko 2.21/1.24, Tevez/Aguero 1.90/0.79
Putting this in terms of equivalent goals for the whole season (45 games);
Team goals for the season (for/against);
Tevez/Dzeko 107/50, Aguero/Dzeko 99/56, Tevez/Aguero 85/36
This shows that the team scores significantly more goals when Tevez and Dzeko are on the field together, than when Tevez and Aguero are. They also concede a lot more. The goal differential is possibly more useful here;
Team goal differential for the season;
Tevez/Dzeko 57, Aguero/Dzeko 43, Tevez/Aguero 49
By this measure, our best pairing appears to be Tevez/Dzeko, with Aguero/Dzeko the least effective.
If your immediate reaction to this conclusion is that statistics can be made to show anything, and the Spurs game clearly showed that Tevez and Dzeko just doesn’t work, I’m afraid you’re making the error of attaching too much weight to recent or memorable events (or ones that confirm your preconceptions), because that statistically bad performance is part of the data-set, and the Tevez/Dzeko pairing still comes out the best – it turns out that for every memorably bad performance by the two of them, there must have been more (perhaps less memorable to you) good performances.
Another interesting fact to come out of the data is that Aguero is our most consistent striker, having had no period of more than 4 games (i.e. 376 mins) without scoring all season. Tevez on the other hand is pretty streaky, having had 3 such periods; 627 minutes (6.7 games) between QPR at home and Swansea at home, 430 minutes (4.6 games) between Everton at home and Watford at home, and 449 minutes (4.8 games) between Watford at home and Leeds at home. So although Tevez appears to be indispensable right now, his current run of goals is making up for some pretty long dry spells (that many people seem to have forgotten). Dzeko has had two periods of more than 4 games without a goal; 432 minutes (4.6 games) between Spurs at home and Norwich away, and he’s currently in one that is 551 minutes long (5.9 games), stretching back to the game at Southampton.
So what’s the take home message from this analysis?
1) Tevez and Aguero score more goals as starters than Dzeko
2) The team scores about the same number of goals regardless of which striker starts
3) Tevez/Dzeko is the most effective partnership, Aguero/Dzeko is the least effective
