A Stat Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero (Update pg 10)

[ElanJo]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

We've been unlucky really in that all our strikers were all out of form/injured at the same time and all started to improve at the same time (Tevez and Kun at least)

Tevez was really poor, looking like he had lost too much of his game, Mario was useless, Dzeko only showed glimpses as a sub and Aguero has had a bit of a stop-start season

 

[pudge]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Am I reading it right?

Dzeko's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Tevez's record off the bench?

Yet his is easily the best when he comes off the bench?

Who knew...

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Am I reading it right?

Dzeko's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Tevez's record off the bench?

Yet his is easily the best when he comes off the bench?

Who knew...

That's correct, but the subs samples are very small, and therefore not as reliable as the starting samples - if Tevez came on for 30 minutes at the end of one game and failed to score, his average goals off the bench would drop from 0.45 to 0.39 (less than Dzeko's starting number).

It's also true that "Tevez's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Dzeko's record off the bench", and "Aguero's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Dzeko's record off the bench".

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

This what you said " Maybe when Tevez and Aguero are running around, everyone else thinks they can take a breather and let them do it all. And maybe when the rest of the team see Dzeko being a lazy **** they work twice as hard to take up the slack." You are implying him being a lazy shit is good for the team, seriously go and have a lie down before you reply.

Ha! You didn't get that at all, did you? I was simply saying that if Dzeko has been a lazy **** all season (as has been suggested), there must be some reason why the team does so well when he starts, in spite of this fact. One possible explanation (which I don't believe, by the way - I was being slightly facetious) is that the team works harder to compensate for his laziness.

Ift*** at all (at least not often) and in fact contributes a lot to the team performance, even though many fans don't see it.

Stats one minute, opinion the next which is it ? You have tried to dismiss other peoples opinions which don't comply with your stats , your opinion is different which is fine(and a good thing, we can't always agree) but it is an opinion nothing more.

No, the stats are there in the OP for all minutes, not just one. Then you seemed not to understand my response to another poster, so I tried to explain that and gave an opinion as part of the explanation (which no one has to agree with, as you rightly suggest).

And I haven't tried to dismiss anyone's opinion, I've just tried to point out when it is only an opinion as opposed to the numbers, which are not opinion. The players did actually play the minutes stated (in their various combinations), and we did actually score the number of goals stated. How you choose to interpret the numbers certainly falls in the realm of opinion, but the numbers themselves do not.

 

[pudge]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

To average 3 times as many goals per game off the bench as opposed to starting is a little different to a slight fluctuation either way<br /><br />-- Apr 26th, '13, 23:55 --<br /><br />

Am I reading it right?

Dzeko's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Tevez's record off the bench?

Yet his is easily the best when he comes off the bench?

Who knew...

That's correct, but the subs samples are very small, and therefore not as reliable as the starting samples - if Tevez came on for 30 minutes at the end of one game and failed to score, his average goals off the bench would drop from 0.45 to 0.39 (less than Dzeko's starting number).

It's also true that "Tevez's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Dzeko's record off the bench", and "Aguero's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Dzeko's record off the bench".

Lets just work with the stats you have provided and not hypothetical ones, eh?

 

[EricBrooksGhost]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

Ha! You didn't get that at all, did you? I was simply saying that if Dzeko has been a lazy **** all season (as has been suggested), there must be some reason why the team does so well when he starts, in spite of this fact. One possible explanation (which I don't believe, by the way - I was being slightly facetious) is that the team works harder to compensate for his laziness.

Ift*** at all (at least not often) and in fact contributes a lot to the team performance, even though many fans don't see it.

Stats one minute, opinion the next which is it ? You have tried to dismiss other peoples opinions which don't comply with your stats , your opinion is different which is fine(and a good thing, we can't always agree) but it is an opinion nothing more.

No, the stats are there in the OP for all minutes, not just one. Then you seemed not to understand my response to another poster, so I tried to explain that and gave an opinion as part of the explanation (which no one has to agree with, as you rightly suggest).

And I haven't tried to dismiss anyone's opinion, I've just tried to point out when it is only an opinion as opposed to the numbers, which are not opinion. The players did actually play the minutes stated (in their various combinations), and we did actually score the number of goals stated. How you choose to interpret the numbers certainly falls in the realm of opinion, but the numbers themselves do not.

So this is now getting painfuil " I was simply saying that if Dzeko has been a lazy **** all season (as has been suggested), there must be some reason why the team does so well when he starts, in spite of this fact. One possible explanation (which I don't believe, by the way - I was being slightly facetious) is that the team works harder to compensate for his laziness." Is opinion not facts along with what I have already quoted. The point being your stratrs don't back up what people witness with their own eyes , you dismiss this a preconception but still spout opinion like everyone else and somehow think your stats reign supreme.

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

To average 3 times as many goals per game off the bench as opposed to starting is a little different to a slight fluctuation either way

-- Apr 26th, '13, 23:55 --

Am I reading it right?

Dzeko's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Tevez's record off the bench?

Yet his is easily the best when he comes off the bench?

Who knew...

That's correct, but the subs samples are very small, and therefore not as reliable as the starting samples - if Tevez came on for 30 minutes at the end of one game and failed to score, his average goals off the bench would drop from 0.45 to 0.39 (less than Dzeko's starting number).

It's also true that "Tevez's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Dzeko's record off the bench", and "Aguero's average goals scored when he starts is even less than Aguero and Dzeko's record off the bench".

Lets just work with the stats you have provided and not hypothetical ones, eh?

Dzeko has had the most minutes as a sub (about 5 full game's worth), as opposed to Tevez (about 2 and a quarter) and Aguero (about 2 and three quarters), so yes, his numbers are less prone to fluctuations than theirs. Due to the much larger number of minutes they've all played as starters, their starting goals are unlikely to change too much, but their sub goals (even Dzeko's) could still change by quite a bit (either way), so you have be careful not to draw too many conclusions from them. However, in terms of goals scored (as opposed to team goals), right now Dzeko has scored three times faster as a sub than as a starter.

An interesting stat that surprised me is that the team concedes more goals when Dzeko comes on as a sub, than when the other two come on as subs; Dzeko 1.39 goals/94mins, Tevez 0.90 goals/94mins, and Aguero 0.30 goals/94mins. Once again, you have to be careful with this subs data due to the small sample size, but I always assumed putting Dzeko on was a good defensive move (I'd assumed he'd be more useful defending corners and free-kicks, and would stay up front and hold the ball up better than the others), whereas it seems not to be the case.

Incidentally, the hypothetical numbers were not an attempt to sidestep any cross-examination, I was simply trying to show that the numbers can change a lot when you have a very small sample size - I gave a similar hypothetical example in the OP for how Tevez's goals as a sub would change the other way if he scored in one sub appearance (from 0.45 to 0.82, which would put him much closer to Dzeko's sub number and also make his average off the bench more than double Dzeko's starting average).<br /><br />-- Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:14 pm --<br /><br />

Stats one minute, opinion the next which is it ? You have tried to dismiss other peoples opinions which don't comply with your stats , your opinion is different which is fine(and a good thing, we can't always agree) but it is an opinion nothing more.

No, the stats are there in the OP for all minutes, not just one. Then you seemed not to understand my response to another poster, so I tried to explain that and gave an opinion as part of the explanation (which no one has to agree with, as you rightly suggest).

And I haven't tried to dismiss anyone's opinion, I've just tried to point out when it is only an opinion as opposed to the numbers, which are not opinion. The players did actually play the minutes stated (in their various combinations), and we did actually score the number of goals stated. How you choose to interpret the numbers certainly falls in the realm of opinion, but the numbers themselves do not.

So this is now getting painfuil " I was simply saying that if Dzeko has been a lazy **** all season (as has been suggested), there must be some reason why the team does so well when he starts, in spite of this fact. One possible explanation (which I don't believe, by the way - I was being slightly facetious) is that the team works harder to compensate for his laziness." Is opinion not facts along with what I have already quoted. The point being your stratrs don't back up what people witness with their own eyes , you dismiss this a preconception but still spout opinion like everyone else and somehow think your stats reign supreme.

I think it's best that I give up trying to explain this to you - there seems to be some sort of understanding block between us and I don't want to keep repeating myself.

 

[pudge]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

You post stats, then say try not to draw conclusions from some and then offer up hypothetical stats as well?

Ok then...

 

[NorCalBlue]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

You posts stats, then say try not to draw conclusions from some and then offer up hypothetical stats as well?

Ok then...

From previous posts you don't seem like an unintelligent guy (even though we obviously disagree about certain things), so I can only assume you're being deliberately thick now.

I posted stats and included information on the sample sizes so that people wouldn't make sweeping conclusions based on a number that could change a lot very quickly. For example, if I threw one dice 100 times and reported the average score as 3.5, and then threw another 3 times and reported the average score as 5, you might conclude that the second dice scores higher than the first. If you didn't take into account the small sample size of the second dice, you might spend a lot of money buying it to play snakes and ladders, only to be severely disappointed when you throw it 100 times and its average turns out to be 3.5 after all. The first dice had a large sample size, so the average is more meaningful, the second dice has a small sample size, so the average is less meaningful. The starting goals data came from a large sample, but the subs goals data came from a much smaller sample and is therefore less reliable.

And the hypothetical examples (like the hypothetical example of the dice above) were to help you understand the sample size effect, since you (possibly deliberately) showed no sign of understanding it from the OP.

 

[pudge]

Re: A Statistical Comparison of Tevez, Dzeko, and Aguero

To be honest, a similar thread or post will manifest itself next week as has been the case this year.

It's boring going round in circles.