Another new Brexit thread

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Why would any country want this situation to change?

Says the poster who literally voted for the government that is insisting that these arrangments are changed and the default is they are scrapped.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Says the poster who literally voted for the government that is insisting that these arrangments are changed and the default is they are scrapped.

I’d answer that if it made any sense.

 

[Vic]

You tell me where they won’t.
We’ve heard all your forecasts for years now Vic, if there was one, just one, that came to fruition you may have a case.
As I said, we wait and see.

Good grief, this is hard work. I can't tell you because IT'S NOT CERTAIN.

Tell me what forecast I've made and we can assess fruition.

 

[bluethrunthru]

The 1.3 million are indeed mostly retired, and extremely important to the economies of the countries they reside in. They are bringing their pensions into these places, which are then spent locally, they are actively urged to buy properties, and are welcomed, because of this. Why would any country want this situation to change?

why would a country be dumb enough to opt out of reciprocal free health care and deny its citizens living abroad banking? Does make you wonder eh?

 

[BobKowalski]

A dive into Financial Services and the City with two takes from Bloomberg. The first states direction of travel has been set, with the second more cautious. Both do partly coalesce around the idea of no single centre to rival the City, but several smaller hubs on the Continent.

City of London's Brexit Departures Are Speeding Up

Whether there’s a Brexit trade deal or not, the big investment banks are shifting significant resources to the EU.

www.bloomberg.com

The Race to Replace the City of London Begins

If the EU builds it, will they come?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[BobKowalski]

Another aspect to bear in mind is the EU as a point of principle no longer wants to rely on London for financial services, partly as a consequence of Covid and the goal of strategic autonomy ie everything ’in house’ as much as possible going forward and that includes Fin Services.

Against that is the current reliance on London and that isn't changing overnight, so expect more measures to reduce that reliance even if it attracts a short term cost.

Barnier has talked at length of the strategic importance of not relying on London irrespective of short term interests in favour of long term economic interests.

 

[chedlee]

It might well be that the various nightmare scenarios that have been mooted may well not come to pass, I think we all hope not. Even if they don't though, the way this government is approaching the trade negotiations and, let's face it, everything else since June 2016 will have the effect of making everyones life a little more difficult. There is literally nothing, in terms of our relationship with mainland Europe, that will not be made harder to accomplish in 2021 that it has been for the previous 35.
I appreciate that for some any price is worth paying and no cost is too high for that feeling of living (some of the time) in a free sovereign state but for the rest, those that were just a bit fed up of what they perceived to be unnecessary interventions in the way they lived their lives, how long will it take before the filling in all those extra forms or the kenneling the dog instead of taking it on holiday with them will force them to wonder whether they voted wisely in the referendum or in subsequent general elections?

 

[meltonblue]

And you’re doing the same, only for a side that no longer exists.
You appear to be predicting consequences that are self generated, no country has said it would refuse to trade with us based on this act.
The EU is the only player threatening legal action, surprise surprise, what makes this stance particularly ridiculous is the threatened lawsuit is that it’s the ECJ,their ‘Court’ where it would be referred.

I haven't mentioned anything about trade, I specifically mentioned the amendments they've made to the bill between the commons and the lords that could have an impact on the GFA. I've been leave ever since the referendum, it has to get implemented. I will never support "by any means" though.

Of course the EU is the only player, who else would? Currently, the breach in international law is only the breach of that treaty, there literally is no other player impacted to take it to court. If the bill gets implemented, then it will have wider implications and will then more than likely have domestic legal challenges against it too.

The ECJ is a red herring, that's exactly what we signed up to as part of the WA. It can still go to arbitration post that too.

 

[meltonblue]

It might well be that the various nightmare scenarios that have been mooted may well not come to pass, I think we all hope not. Even if they don't though, the way this government is approaching the trade negotiations and, let's face it, everything else since June 2016 will have the effect of making everyones life a little more difficult. There is literally nothing, in terms of our relationship with mainland Europe, that will not be made harder to accomplish in 2021 that it has been for the previous 35.
I appreciate that for some any price is worth paying and no cost is too high for that feeling of living (some of the time) in a free sovereign state but for the rest, those that were just a bit fed up of what they perceived to be unnecessary interventions in the way they lived their lives, how long will it take before the filling in all those extra forms or the kenneling the dog instead of taking it on holiday with them will force them to wonder whether they voted wisely in the referendum or in subsequent general elections?

We do seem to be going out of our way to make our lives harder, not easier, aside from a very small part of the population...

 

[west didsblue]

Another aspect to bear in mind is the EU as a point of principle no longer wants to rely on London for financial services, partly as a consequence of Covid and the goal of strategic autonomy ie everything ’in house’ as much as possible going forward and that includes Fin Services.

Against that is the current reliance on London and that isn't changing overnight, so expect more measures to reduce that reliance even if it attracts a short term cost.

Barnier has talked at length of the strategic importance of not relying on London irrespective of short term interests in favour of long term economic interests.

The Brexiteers will tell you that they would have done it anyway, and there is no doubt that some European countries have always been concerned at their reliance on the City of London, however our departure from the EU has hugely accelerated the flight of assets and services from London to EU centres. As the article says London will always remain a world financial centre but it is likely to be vying for 4th or 5th place behind NY and Tokyo rather than for top spot alongside them.