Arsenal game 17th June.

[SWP's back]

I said fans make more or less no difference

And you base that on nothing more than your hunch.

 

[BringBackSwales]

You’ve got the wrong end of the stick. I said fans make more or less no difference. Home advantage makes some difference although not as much as people think as illustrated in the stats I presented to swp.

The stats are clear, home advantage means you are 77% more likely to win as the home team than as the away team. That’s after about 28 years of the premier league, something like 11,000 games. There’s a reason for that. Or is it just a bloody big coincidence? Try tossing a coin 11,000 times and come back to me with the results

 

[BringBackSwales]

And you base that on nothing more than your hunch.

It’s time to let go mate, and to feel similar amounts of sympathy and ignoring

 

[BringBackSwales]

You’re not looking beyond the obvious headline figure. A crucial question is how many times did the home team beat the away team not because they were at home but because they were the better team. Refer you to my stats re City last season for an example of this.

As I have already said, we (and everyone else) played everyone else as often at home as we did away, and indeed vice fucking versa. There’s more than one muppet called Boris, clearly

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Oh my fucking Christ. It’s not about a team that’s on for circa 100 points a season. Only three time have teams scored more than 95 points so of course City were short in every fucking game.

Odds reflect everything including home advantage. Spurs vs Arsenal as an example has the home team favourite in each game for the last five years. You can’t therefore discount games where the bookies make one team a heavy favourite. Bookies odds are completely useless for this discussion BECAUSE they already factor in home advantage.

You’ve already seen that on average, a home team is nearly twice as likely to win a game then an away team (46% vs 26%). Bookies odds don’t come into it.

Of course you discount them because the discrepancy in price is largely because one team is markedly superior to the other.

Last example : if Nadal is playing a Davis Cup tie against a journeyman in a foreign country in front of a hostile crowd on his least favourite surface he will still be a very short fav because he is a much better player. Same with say if Floyd Mayweather boxes in England using Reyes gloves (which don’t suit his style) against a limited fighter who can really bang and therefore gets advantage from those gloves he’ll still be massively odds on.

 

[SWP's back]

It’s time to let go mate, and to feel similar amounts of sympathy and ignoring

Good shout. He’s looking at the stats and had it spoon fed to him and he still doesn’t get it. Time to move on.

As for his tennis and boxing examples, they don’t play each other home and away and have twice as much chance of winning at home than away (statistically) nor 25+ years of data to show it. That he’d even bring those sports up shows he’s clearly not going to understand.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

As I have already said, we (and everyone else) played everyone else as often at home as we did away, and indeed vice fucking versa. There’s more than one muppet called Boris, clearly

You seem to have as pitiful a grasp of maths and statistical knowledge as Swales demonstrated while at City

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Good shout. He’s looking at the stats and had it spoon fed to him and he still doesn’t get it. Time to move on

You don’t have the intellect to look more deeply into a very basic simple headline stat.
And once again the simplistic nature of your thought process stifles sensible debate.

 

[mike1923]

Hehe, we will be able to say it back as they’ll all be empty..snigger

whenever I get it from rags I just send them Uniteds statement about city fans being in he home end because they couldn’t sell all their tickets

 

[SWP's back]

You don’t have the intellect to look more deeply into a very basic simple headline stat.
And once again the simplistic nature of your thought process stifles sensible debate.

I’ll let the reader decide, I’ve wasted enough time on you.