Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

The polls say otherwise. The referendum is over, but the leave campaign never talked about the financial cost, never mind the divorce bill, whatever one thinks of the £350 million to the NHS slogan the whole thrust of the leave campaign was the savings we were going to make, the additional funds we'd have, what few economic projections leave did produce assumed unfettered access to the single market, plus all the cheaper goodies from the fabulous trade deals we were going to pull off. All lies of course but hey ho! That's politics.

What is truly perplexing is that leavers, even now, seem to be avoiding taking ownership of this, with all it's ramifications and because they refuse to do this they might well end up with all the pain but none of the gain.

near enough every poll for the last few years has said the people want immigration lowered and its the main reason leave won imo. i agree the 350m was stupid and they never should have said that. the difference is though is that they offered a positive vision for britain outside of the eu. the remain side offered nothing, apart from everything will be worse and your an idiot if you dont vote remain. your right it is politics all sides lied.

 

[The perfect fumble]

World Trade Organisation....is a viable option.

Really? What might be the impact on our economy of reverting to WTO rules?

 

[BobKowalski]

And now we are coming out of that political union mate, achieved through a referendum and enacted upon by an elected government of today.

Yes we are.

We are also coming out of the trading union as well.

Or trying to at any rate. Ending the political union is relatively easy given we were always somewhat semi detached. The trading union we are fully enmeshed in and ripping us out will cause damage to manufacturing and financial service industries unless, as I suspect, we operate under a transitional deal that will prove to be not quite so transitional.

The next two years will be fascinating.

 

[The perfect fumble]

near enough every poll for the last few years has said the people want immigration lowered and its the main reason leave won imo. i agree the 350m was stupid and they never should have said that. the difference is though is that they offered a positive vision for britain outside of the eu. the remain side offered nothing, apart from everything will be worse and your an idiot if you dont vote remain. your right it is politics all sides lied.

Yes they did, but leave won so your lies matter.

 

[Metal Biker]

Really? What might be the impact on our economy of reverting to WTO rules?

A rather obvious pro-remain narrative here, so you should indulge in it, specifically the snarky remarks about "regaining sovereignty ONLY to rejoin the world!". Not accurate that statement now, is it. But anyhoo...
http://www.economist.com/news/finan...pendent-member-wto-could-be-difficult-process

As it's been stated dozens of times; our economy will take a knock. Another recession perhaps? But again, i'm not thinking short term, i'm thinking long term. The EU is the directive, making decisions on our behalf, even if they are detrimental to us, the EU is the sole focus and the one that must be seen to prosper. Sorry, not having that, not anymore.

What were the long term prospects of staying IN the EU? Oh yeah, remainers didn't talk about them, did they. Because they know, just as we did, the EU is tanking economically and has been doing for years with no sign of a recovery. First Greece, then Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland.The EU is dying, but the concept isn't gone. Tying together economies killed it. When one does great, all do great, wonderful! But when one economy fails...

 

[Saddleworth2]

Oooh, I hate to tell you this but the United Federation of Planets doesn't actually exist.

However the World Trade Organisation, and all the rules, regulations and directives contained within, DOES exist, is a possible course of action and is a viable option.

It does exist you are correct and is estimated to cost UK exporters £6bn per year if that outcome is followed.

 

[arbabarshad]

Really? What might be the impact on our economy of reverting to WTO rules?

Impact assessment is still to be done. It is due to be scheduled to be completed by the scheduled end of this parliament.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Really? What might be the impact on our economy of reverting to WTO rules?

£6bn per year for UK firms is the best estimate.

 

[inbetween]

May caused a stupid election to try to bully Brexit through, with the additional bonus of destroying Labour.
Labour looked to be on their knees, partly because their vote was split by Brexit.
May was Prime Minsiter because Cameron resigned.
Cameron resigned because of the Brexit vote.

This entire fucking nightmare scenario we are walking into was caused by people voting for something they had no real comprehension of.

It wasn't a democratic decision, it was a referendum. It was one which shouldn't have taken place because of it's significance, and it was one conducted on lies which fed ignorance. I'm telling you, this is not over. As the people who voted for this start to realise (and that process is starting already without a doubt) what it actually entails, public opinion will continue to swing and there still could be a way out of this.

The vote did not ask do you want to kill off the country or even do you want to make it better, the vote asked do you want to leave the EU.

Nothing else is relevant, all of this was relevant when trying to appeal to people to decide based upon what might happen and they decided we should leave.

Debate about this is now pointless because even if overwhelming evidence appears that we are walking off a cliff it is still what we must do unfortunately.

 

[Saddleworth2]

The vote did not ask do you want to kill off the country or even do you want to make it better, the vote asked do you want to leave the EU.

Nothing else is relevant, all of this was relevant when trying to appeal to people to decide based upon what might happen and they decided we should leave.

Debate about this is now pointless because even if overwhelming evidence appears that we are walking off a cliff it is still what we must do unfortunately.

Is that true though? If the deal we get demonstrates unequivocally that the UK will be seriously harmed, can you not see a circumstance that its brought back to the country as a referendum?

 

[Metal Biker]

It does exist you are correct and is estimated to cost UK exporters £6bn per year if that outcome is followed.

And the £10bn (average) we pay to the EU that dissapears?

Instead of trading with only 27 nations (plus those the EU allows) in a trading bloc which has been in decline we can be free to trade with all WTO members, freely on our own accord? And this is an issue for some people?

 

[arbabarshad]

It does exist you are correct and is estimated to cost UK exporters £6bn per year if that outcome is followed.

The exporters will just pass it along so it will cost the consumers £6bn a year.

 

[jonmcity]

Impact assessment is still to be done. It is due to be scheduled to be completed by the scheduled end of this parliament.

That sounds incompetent. If we are to operate by ourselves, we need to start recruiting some deal makers into the Civil service. Our MP's need to be of a higher calibre, and we need to recruit the best minds for the Civil service. We are woefully ill prepared for any WTO break away.

 

[jonmcity]

The exporters will just pass it along so it will cost the consumers £6bn a year.

That will mean a recession in a consumer led economy like ours. We already have wage deflation, and the ability for population to carry on buying, in order to keep the economy afloat is not looking achievable.

 

[inbetween]

Is that true though? If the deal we get demonstrates unequivocally that the UK will be seriously harmed, can you not see a circumstance that its brought back to the country as a referendum?

I think any deal should still be ratified by the people of course, this is different to what I am saying, deciding upon the type of Brexit is different to whether we should have one at all. Having another referendum should be off the cards but I definitely think we should get a say on ratifying any deal or we face leaving that part to the wishes of 600 or so people.

Of course if the deal shows we would be harmed and people still vote for it then we should plough on yes. Personally I can't see any way in which we will come out of this better at least in the short term unless we get the exact same deal we have now outside of the EU but with the other things we want.. Highly unlikely.

For many people there is more to this than GDP figures and the economics of FTSE100 companies. For some if free movement ends at the expense of a suffering economy they would vote for it and who is to decide for those people that their vote should be ignored?

 

[arbabarshad]

That sounds incompetent. If we are to operate by ourselves, we need to start recruiting some deal makers into the Civil service. Our MP's need to be of a higher calibre, and we need to recruit the best minds for the Civil service. We are woefully ill prepared for any WTO break away.

That's because it is incompetent. Could not agree more with the fact that this country is woefully ill prepared for any WTO break away.

 

[arbabarshad]

That will mean a recession in a consumer led economy like ours. We already have wage deflation, and the ability for population to carry on buying, in order to keep the economy afloat is not looking achievable.

This is what was called "Project Fear" in the run up to the referendum. This is what will become "Project Reality" if the country continues on its current course of Brexit.

 

[Chris in London]

And the £10bn (average) we pay to the EU that dissapears?

Instead of trading with only 27 nations (plus those the EU allows) in a trading bloc which has been in decline we can be free to trade with all WTO members, freely on our own accord? And this is an issue for some people?

Yes.

It's an issue for everybody who understands that we are a service based economy not a manufacturing economy and we have been ever since the 1980s; it's an issue for everybody who knows that London provides the nation with over a quarter of its income and who understands how much of a blow to that portion of the national income departure from the single market will be; its an issue for everybody who understands that reliance on WTO rules means that we can sell cars to China but we can't sell financial services to Germany; and its an issue for anyone who appreciates that the saving we make in not contributing to the EU is far outweighed by the loss of income that comes from removing from the national economy our ability to sell our most valuable commodity (financial services) to our most lucrative market (the EU).

 

[BobKowalski]

Hang on, you said the EU does not impose austerity, but now you're saying it imposed them ONLY on Eurozone members...so you've proved my point. The EU does and can impose austerity on member states within the Eurozone.

My viewpoint did not focus on austerity being imposed on US by the EU. I'm discussing the EU as a political organisation, not our own personal relationship with it. I look at how the EU treats it's OTHER member states, not just ourselves and my vote was in reflection of that. It wasn't solely a selfish UK one. The other points about Common Fisheries Policy, membership fee, etc, THEY are imposed, but I never stated austerity measures were; only that they were on other EU members, something you denied was true but have now agreed upon.

We did not decide, the elected Government made a decision on our behalf without then offering the public a referendum on the decision to do so as they did in 1975. I do hope then, that you aren't like other remainers who claim that "the referendum called upon by the elected PM who stated in his Governments manifesto that a vote for the Conservatives meant a vote on a referendum about membership of the EU", which won the election, was 'wrong' or should never have been called, because your own statements allude to that fact (as do mine) that the referendum should have been called, and that you inform other remainers on this forum of this fact.

The EU is not the Eurozone. The Eurozone is not the EU. It is really not a difficult concept to grasp. In both cases sovereign Govts choose to be a member of these bodies and weigh up the benefits and downsides accordingly.

You originally stated that the EU insisted on austerity policies for the UK. It doesn't. Your statement was false.

You then argued it wasn't false because of Greece, Spain etc (but not the UK).

I then pointed it was because they were in the Eurozone which has a common monetary policy set by the ECB which is not the EU. The ECB is an idependent body just as the BoE is in the UK. Whether Eurozone membership is good for Greece, Spain et al is for them to decide and has fuck all to do with us even if Brexiteers are somewhat obsessed with the populations of Greece, Spain and Italy as if the other 24 countries didn't exist.

So to recap. EU isn't dictating austerity policies to the UK. Austerity is a Tory policy. Squeezing the NHS is a Tory policy. Cutting the Police is a Tory policy. Dementia tax was a Tory policy. None of these policies were forced on a reluctant Tory Govt by the EU.

As for Maastricht. The Tory Govt decided to sign the Treaty as was their constitutional right to do so. As you state 'the elected Govt made a decision on our behalf'. Yes they did. That's their fucking job and what they are elected to do. Don't like it then work to vote them out.

As for last years referendum it was legally constituted and Parliament committed to honour the result. Yes it was fucking stupid and we are now reaping the consequences a year later and (laughably) had precisely one day of negotiations with the EU over it. I disagree it should have been offered but once offered and the Govt voted in on that promise then the promise should be, and was, honoured.

That we voted to cut our bollocks off with little to no idea as to what the consequences were or how precisely we go about it is kind of irrelevant. That a year later we still are divided in the country, Parliament and the Cabinet over the decision with still no clear idea of how we go about it or what is involved is very relevant bordering on abject stupidity but hey I didn't vote Tory or for this shit in the first place so unless I get fucking unicorns and a land knee deep in milk and honey I will happily batter the shit out of the wankers who advocated and voted for this crapfest.

 

[BobKowalski]

And the £10bn (average) we pay to the EU that dissapears?

Instead of trading with only 27 nations (plus those the EU allows) in a trading bloc which has been in decline we can be free to trade with all WTO members, freely on our own accord? And this is an issue for some people?

We are free to trade with who the hell we like. You do not have to exit the EU or the trading bloc to trade with other people. Take China. We export some £18bn a year. Germany exports around £80bn a year. The EU does not hold Germany back anymore than it does us. Germany just makes things China wishes to buy. Perhaps we should try that rather than blaming others for our failings.