Carabao Cup R3 Draw | Newcastle (A)

[uwe rosler 28]

Think city and the efl should clarify what will happen if we reach qfs the same time as the cwc will be be forced to play a kids team? Would we withdraw? Would it be moved? Think it's only fair the fans know before forking out for the early rounds.

 

[hammocity]

Fair enough.
It's not 4095/1 though, every draw is a separate event so a home draw has an even chance of occurring each and every time regardless of the previous outcome.

Cumulative odds so far are 4095/1, it’s still even next time but the chances of 13 in a row will be 8191/1.

 

[hammocity]

Think city and the efl should clarify what will happen if we reach qfs the same time as the cwc will be be forced to play a kids team? Would we withdraw? Would it be moved? Think it's only fair the fans know before forking out for the early rounds.

Can only see Tuesday 2nd - Thursday 4th before the FA Cup weekend, that’s the only option but it would be sensible to advise us now, it’s only 2 games before the quarters so it’s not taking anything for granted or being entitled, it’s in everyone’s interest.

 

[BringBackSwales]

Fair enough.
It's not 4095/1 though, every draw is a separate event so a home draw has an even chance of occurring each and every time regardless of the previous outcome.

If you toss a coin 12 times it’s 12 separate events, each one is 50:50 however far apart the 12 separate events are, and the chances of them all being the same desired outcome (12 heads on the run or 12 tails) is still 4095 to 1. But like I said the draws can’t be fixed so united are just very lucky

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

If you toss a coin 12 times it’s 12 separate events, each one is 50:50 however far apart the 12 separate events are, and the chances of them all being the same desired outcome (12 heads on the run or 12 tails) is still 4095 to 1. But like I said the draws can’t be fixed so united are just very lucky

I actually think it's a bit of a banana skin for them. They haven't looked particularly convincing. Palace have got nothing to lose.

 

[hammocity]

If you toss a coin 12 times it’s 12 separate events, each one is 50:50 however far apart the 12 separate events are, and the chances of them all being the same desired outcome (12 heads on the run or 12 tails) is still 4095 to 1. But like I said the draws can’t be fixed so united are just very lucky

Lol, yep, it’s something that does happen in Casinos, 12 on the bounce, 13, etc, it has to as there’s millions of spins per day. There’s not that many football draws for cup competitions so for the media darlings to be on the end of this luck is coincidental.

No one would risk trying to fix a draw, they could be prosecuted for it but I didn’t like that glass bowl last night with the numbered balls clearly visible to Ward and Christenson! Let’s go back to the balls in a bag, bag ball, ball bag, as Tommy Cooper used to say.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

That is correct Norwich played on Tues. Alphabetically they should have been allocated ball number 20 not 19. some one has screwed up we definately should be playing Norwich.

Oh I see what you mean. Meh, doesn’t really matter that much. It’s still a random draw.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

If you toss a coin 12 times it’s 12 separate events, each one is 50:50 however far apart the 12 separate events are, and the chances of them all being the same desired outcome (12 heads on the run or 12 tails) is still 4095 to 1. But like I said the draws can’t be fixed so united are just very lucky

Can you eliminate certain rounds in the sequence though, such as the FA semifinal where they were drawn as the “away” team. I’m not too sure you can, I think it re-sets the sequence.

 

[Ric]

Not an ideal draw, but at least this year Newcastle have CL to contend with so the Carabao will be less of a priority for them. Feels like sacrilege to say it, but it might not be a bad thing in the long run if we went out early anyway, with the World Club Championship looming.

 

[Gremlin]

If you toss a coin 12 times it’s 12 separate events, each one is 50:50 however far apart the 12 separate events are, and the chances of them all being the same desired outcome (12 heads on the run or 12 tails) is still 4095 to 1. But like I said the draws can’t be fixed so united are just very lucky

The key thing (which a lot of people misunderstand) is that the odds of getting 12 heads in a row are only very high before you start flipping the coin. If you've already gotten 11 in a row then the chance of getting 12 in a row are still only 50:50. United getting a load of home draws in the past is meaningless to the chance of it happening in the future.