Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?
ftg said:
Maybe premature, with qualification far from reached, but it should be interesting to discuss it now, what with the Champions league regulations being released for next season (<a class="postlink" href="http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/23/57/51/2235751_DOWNLOAD.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Dow ... WNLOAD.pdf</a>). The main point is it entails what was rumoured a couple months ago:
The first pot will be comprised of CL winners and League winners from the top 7 nations. In the event of the CL winners also winning their league, the 8th spot in pot 1 will go to the the winners of the 8th best association, not the top seeded team as previously rumoured.
Strangely, the reference periods for rankings differ between club points and country points:
"The associations' positions in the 2015/16 UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League access list (Annex A) are determined on the basis of the association rankings established at the end of the 2013/14 season, on the basis of the associations' coefficients from seasons 2009/10 to 2013/14 inclusive. The club coefficient rankings for the 2015/16 UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are drawn up before the start of the 2015/16 season, on the basis of their coefficients from seasons 2010/11 to 2014/15 inclusive."
Basically, this means that although Ukraine are are currently in 8th, the spot will go instead to the winners of the Dutch league (i.e., PSV), unless a non-league winner wins the CL.
So, by having a look around the other leagues:
Pot 1: (bold are pretty much nailed on, others not so much)
PSG/Lyon (Ligue 1 winners) - would most definitely prefer PSG to win, as Lyon are below us in the rankings.
Juventus (Serie A winners)
Zenit (RPL winners) - Krasnodar only 6 points behind, but with drastically inferior goal difference it is unlikely Zenit will crumble now.
Benfica/Porto (Primeira Liga winners) - both are above us, doesn't really matter
Bayern (Bundesliga winners)
Chelsea (Premier League winners)
Real/Barcelona (La Liga winners) - both are above us, doesn't really matter
CL winners or PSV
So, assuming that the CL winners also win their group, and PSV qualify, then Pot 2 is then comprised of the next top 8 rated teams that qualify. We are currently 17th in the rankings. Looking at the other clubs not mentioned above:
Real Madrid/Barcelona - one will qualify from the league, the other should be in pot 2
Atlético Madrid - should definitely be in CL
Benfica /Porto - one will qualify from the league, the other should be in pot 2
Schalke 04 - should miss out!
Arsenal - should definitely be in CL
Them Lot - can't see Liverpool catching them now. We won't go above them in seedings until the start of next season, when they lose the 36 points from the 10/11 season
Paris Saint-Germain - though may still win the league
Borussia Dortmund - should miss out!
Valencia - currently in the CL pots, though Sevilla only 2 points behind
Bayer Leverkusen - should definitely be in CL
So, that means there are 8 teams above us listed there, meaning if worse comes to worse we'll be placed in pot 3. However, that requires all of the following to happen simultaneously:
- CL winners win their league
- Lyon beat PSG to the title
- Valencia beat Sevilla to 4th place
Slim chance, but definitely a chance. Out of the three of those I'd be most surprised if PSG bottle it now. The first point is mainly reliant on one of Barca/Real/Atletico to win the league and another to win the CL.
So, all being well, we'll make it to pot 2. But then again, we could fuck it all up and come 5th/lost in the CL qualifying, meaning I've wasted the last 30 mins of my life. Enjoy.
Obviously if I've missed anything obvious/stupid point it out and I'll edit accordingly.
Not quite right as City currently occupy position 17 in the seedings of the probable qualified clubs!
As I see it, if one of the following happens, City will be in Pot 2:
[Scenario A] 50% chance of ejecting Olympic Lyonnaise from the list ahead of us.
PSG with the French La Ligue (50%)
[Scenario B] 18.2% chance of Real Madrid ejecting PSV from the list ahead of us.
Barca win La Liga (52%) & Real Madrid win the CL (35%)
[Scenario C] 16.8% chance of Barca ejecting PSV from the list ahead of us.
Real Madrid win La Liga (48%).& Barca win CL (35%)
[Scenario D] 29% chance of ejecting Valencia from the list ahead of us.
CL winners win their league (65%) & Sevilla beat Valencia to 4th place (45%). Sevilla are currently 2 points behind Valencia)
Pot 1.1 = Ch of ESP: [02 Barcelona (ESP) 156.228 Ch(+2pts)] / 01 Real Madrid CF (ESP) 167.22 Ch(-2pts)
Pot 1.2 = Ch of ENG: [04 Chelsea FC (ENG) 142.078 (Ch(+10pts)]
Pot 1.3 = Ch of GER: [03 FC Bayern München (GER) 149.711 Ch(+12pts)]
Pot 1.4 = Ch pf ITA: [15 Juventus (ITA) 88.535 Ch(+15pts)]
Pot 1.5 = Ch pf POR: [06 SL Benfica (POR) 118.209 Ch(+3pts)]
Pot 1.6 = Ch of FRA: [24: Olympic Lyonaise (FRA) 72.950 Ch(+7GD)]
Pot 1.7 = Ch of RUS: [14 FC Zenit (PUS) 89.066 Ch(+8pts)]
Pot 1.8
If Barca or Real Madrid wins CL but not La Liga then one will be in position 1.8
Else PSV will be in pot position 1.8
[01 Real Madrid CF (ESP) 167.22 (Ch-2pts)] / 02 Barcelona (ESP) 156.228 Ch(+2pts)
[40 PSV Eindhoven (NED) 58.195 (Ch+12pts)]
Pot 2.1 = 01 Real Madrid CF (ESP) 167.22 Ch(-2pts) / [02 Barcelona (ESP) 156.228 Ch(+2pts)]
Pot 2.2 = 05 Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP) 120.228 Ch(-9pts)
Pot 2.3 = 08 FC Porto (POR) 111.209 Ch(-3pts)
Pot 2.4 = 09 Arsenal FC (ENG) 110.078 Ch(-10pts)
Pot 2.5 = 10 Manchester United FC (ENG) 103.078 =Ch(-14pts)
Pot 2.6 = 11 Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) 100.450Ch(-7GD)
Pot 2.7 = 13 Valencia CF (ESP) 99.228 Q(+2pts)
Pot 2.8 = 16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) 87.711 Q(+12pts)
Pot 3.1 = 17 Manchester City FC (ENG) 87.078 Q(+5pts)
Pot 3.2 = FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) 85.733
Pot 3.3 = FC Basel 1893 (SUI) 84.875 Ch(+10pts)
TEAMS TAKING A MIRACLE TO QUALIFY
07 FC Schalke (GER) 111.711 Q(-12pts)
12 Borussia Dortmund (GER) 99.711 Q(-18pts)
Note:
Ch(+/-pts/GD) How close (+) or how far away (-) a team is from qualifying as Champions in pts or on GD
Q(+/-pts/GD) How close (+) or how far away (-) a team is from qualifying, but not as champions, in pts or on GD
Then again - the draw is based on TV pairings - so the above is pretty much irrelevant!
Should City be lucky enough to qualify (and thats no given considering we are currently 4th in a 2 horse race and if we finished 4th we would have to WIN the qualification round which is an effort in itself)
One of the TV pair goes into the RED side of the draw, and the other goes into the BLUE side of the draw. So whoever is paired with Chelsea gets the easier ride.
That won't be City as ITV & Sky generally put City with Arsenal - though this choice will be with BT Sport this time.
The TV pairs are never advertised by journalists before hand even though they are known to them but they ARE fundamental in determining who the 2nd club in the pair CAN'T face! It turns the draw into a farce as where the 1st team in the pair TOTALLY DETERMINES who the 2nd team in the pair can face.
