Champions League 15/16 seeding - City CONFIRMED Pot 2 - Pg20

[aguero93:20]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

Could someone like Napoli still get ahead of us if they do really well in EL and win it?

Pot3 might be a killer for us, it actually could result a Bayern-Real-City+(most tricky of Pot4) group LOL.

But lets hope Arse+MU finally will get a really tough one, with Bayern/Real/Barca in their group.

But we knew it early this season this change will happen, and we knew we finally can be Pot1 if we win the title.

On longer term we will be Pot1 if we win the title or CL maybe. With the rivals we have in PL no English team will be a regular in Pot1.

While in usually one horse race leagues like Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 they get easy Pot1 spots...
(PSG have so much financial advantage in France on rivals, despite the fact they do badly this season and that opened a door for Lyon maybe but still expect PSG to win it, or to win it at least 4 times out of next 5 seasons.

For us in the PL its probably 2 times in next 5 years at best imo.

If we got that group we'd probably qualify :D

 

[oakiecokie]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

There is no agenda. Aye right.

So are you claiming that UEFA are only changing the format so that they can see City become less and less likely to get into a higher pot ?? If you think that,then you have no understanding of the co-efficiency ratings.We are shit in Europe,as are other English teams who do usually fare better than us,so if you honestly believe that City merit being in a higher pot,then you`re deluded.

Whilst I am one of those massively in the 'there is an agenda' camp surely the change this year is only to the benefit of CITY and to the detriment of the scum and arse?

Whether we are in pot 2 or 3 there is at least a 50% chance that we will get drawn against a League winner against which we would be favourites against - I think that it is only Spain and Germany that I would think that we would be clearly not favourites.

Now the scum and arse can also get Barca or Bayern's groups unless I have it wrong

I think most City fans have felt for a couple of years that the top footballing countries in Europe should automatically be in Pot 1,those being the respective winners of their Leagues.Just unfortunate that now its being changed we`ve been shit this season,so in effect its come 12 months to late for us.
Yes at least the Rags and Gooners will now be subjected to possibly harder games from their groups,instead of an automatic entry to Pot 1.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

We are in pot 2 at the moment but we are last on the list and only Napoli can knock us out so let's hope they get stuffed this round.

 

[aguero93:20]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

We are in pot 2 at the moment but we are last on the list and only Napoli can knock us out so let's hope they get stuffed this round.

They're 4-1 up from the first leg and Italian, don't get your hopes up.

 

[ftg]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

Maybe premature, with qualification far from reached, but it should be interesting to discuss it now, what with the Champions league regulations being released for next season (<a class="postlink" href="http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/23/57/51/2235751_DOWNLOAD.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Dow ... WNLOAD.pdf</a>). The main point is it entails what was rumoured a couple months ago:

The first pot will be comprised of CL winners andleague winners from the top 7 nations. In the event of the CL winners also winning their league, the 8th spot in pot 1 will go to the the winners of the 8th best association, not] the top seeded team as previously rumoured.

Strangely, the reference periods for rankings differ between club points and country points:

"The associations' positions in the 2015/16 UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League access list (Annex A) are determined on the basis of the association rankings established at the end of the 2013/14 season, on the basis of the associations' coefficients from seasons 2009/10 to 2013/14 inclusive. The club coefficient rankings for the 2015/16 UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are drawn up before the start of the 2015/16 season, on the basis of their coefficients from seasons 2010/11 to 2014/15 inclusive."

Basically, this means that although Ukraine are are currently in 8th, the spot will go instead to the winners of the Dutch league (i.e., PSV), unless a non-league winner wins the CL.

So, by having a look around the other leagues:

Pot 1: (bold are pretty much nailed on, others not so much)

PSG/Lyon (Ligue 1 winners) - would most definitely prefer PSG to win, as Lyon are below us in the rankings.
Juventus (Serie A winners)
Zenit(RPL winners) - Krasnodar only 6 points behind, but with drastically inferior goal difference it is unlikely Zenit will crumble now.
Benfica/Porto (Primeira Liga winners) - both are above us, doesn't really matter
Bayern (Bundesliga winners)
Chelsea (Premier League winners)
Real/Barcelona (La Liga winners) - both are above us, doesn't really matter
CL winners or PSV

So, assuming that the CL winners also win their group, and PSV qualify, then Pot 2 is then comprised of the next top 8 rated teams that qualify. We are currently 17th in the rankings. Looking at the other clubs not mentioned above:
Real Madrid/Barcelona - one will qualify from the league, the other should be in pot 2
Atlético Madrid - should definitely be in CL
Benfica /Porto - one will qualify from the league, the other should be in pot 2
Schalke 04 - should miss out!
Arsenal - should definitely be in CL
Them Lot - can't see Liverpool catching them now. We won't go above them in seedings until the start of next season, when they lose the 36 points from the 10/11 season
Paris Saint-Germain - though may still win the league
Borussia Dortmund - should miss out!
Valencia - currently in the CL pots, though Sevilla only 2 points behind
Bayer Leverkusen - should definitely be in CL

So, that means there are 8 teams above us listed there, meaning if worse comes to worse we'll be placed in pot 3. However, that requires all of the following to happen simultaneously:

- CL winners win their league
- Lyon beat PSG to the title
- Valencia beat Sevilla to 4th place

Slim chance, but definitely a chance. Out of the three of those I'd be most surprised if PSG bottle it now. The first point is mainly reliant on one of Barca/Real/Atletico to win the league and another to win the CL.

So, all being well, we'll make it to pot 2. But then again, we could fuck it all up and come 5th/lost in the CL qualifying, meaning I've wasted the last 30 mins of my life. Enjoy.

Obviously if I've missed anything obvious/stupid point it out and I'll edit accordingly.

Not quite right as City currently occupy position 17 in the seedings of the probable qualified clubs!

As I see it, if one of the following happens, City will be in Pot 2:
[Scenario A] 50% chance of ejecting Olympic Lyonnaise from the list ahead of us.
PSG with the French La Ligue (50%)
[Scenario B] 18.2% chance of Real Madrid ejecting PSV from the list ahead of us.
Barca win La Liga (52%) & Real Madrid win the CL (35%)
[Scenario C] 16.8% chance of Barca ejecting PSV from the list ahead of us.
Real Madrid win La Liga (48%).& Barca win CL (35%)
[Scenario D] 29% chance of ejecting Valencia from the list ahead of us.
CL winners win their league (65%) & Sevilla beat Valencia to 4th place (45%). Sevilla are currently 2 points behind Valencia)

Pot 1.1 = Ch of ESP: [02 Barcelona (ESP) 156.228 Ch(+2pts)] / 01 Real Madrid CF (ESP) 167.22 Ch(-2pts)
Pot 1.2 = Ch of ENG: [04 Chelsea FC (ENG) 142.078 (Ch(+10pts)]
Pot 1.3 = Ch of GER: [03 FC Bayern München (GER) 149.711 Ch(+12pts)]
Pot 1.4 = Ch pf ITA: [15 Juventus (ITA) 88.535 Ch(+15pts)]
Pot 1.5 = Ch pf POR: [06 SL Benfica (POR) 118.209 Ch(+3pts)]
Pot 1.6 = Ch of FRA: [24: Olympic Lyonaise (FRA) 72.950 Ch(+7GD)]
Pot 1.7 = Ch of RUS: [14 FC Zenit (PUS) 89.066 Ch(+8pts)]
Pot 1.8
If Barca or Real Madrid wins CL but not La Liga then one will be in position 1.8
Else PSV will be in pot position 1.8
[01 Real Madrid CF (ESP) 167.22 (Ch-2pts)] / 02 Barcelona (ESP) 156.228 Ch(+2pts)
[40 PSV Eindhoven (NED) 58.195 (Ch+12pts)]

Pot 2.1 = 01 Real Madrid CF (ESP) 167.22 Ch(-2pts) / [02 Barcelona (ESP) 156.228 Ch(+2pts)]
Pot 2.2 = 05 Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP) 120.228 Ch(-9pts)
Pot 2.3 = 08 FC Porto (POR) 111.209 Ch(-3pts)
Pot 2.4 = 09 Arsenal FC (ENG) 110.078 Ch(-10pts)
Pot 2.5 = 10 Manchester United FC (ENG) 103.078 =Ch(-14pts)
Pot 2.6 = 11 Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) 100.450Ch(-7GD)
Pot 2.7 = 13 Valencia CF (ESP) 99.228 Q(+2pts)
Pot 2.8 = 16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) 87.711 Q(+12pts)

Pot 3.1 = 17 Manchester City FC (ENG) 87.078 Q(+5pts)
Pot 3.2 = FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) 85.733
Pot 3.3 = FC Basel 1893 (SUI) 84.875 Ch(+10pts)

TEAMS TAKING A MIRACLE TO QUALIFY
07 FC Schalke (GER) 111.711 Q(-12pts)
12 Borussia Dortmund (GER) 99.711 Q(-18pts)

Note:
Ch(+/-pts/GD) How close (+) or how far away (-) a team is from qualifying as Champions in pts or on GD
Q(+/-pts/GD) How close (+) or how far away (-) a team is from qualifying, but not as champions, in pts or on GD

Then again - the draw is based on TV pairings - so the above is pretty much irrelevant!
Should City be lucky enough to qualify (and thats no given considering we are currently 4th in a 2 horse race and if we finished 4th we would have to WIN the qualification round which is an effort in itself)

One of the TV pair goes into the RED side of the draw, and the other goes into the BLUE side of the draw. So whoever is paired with Chelsea gets the easier ride.
That won't be City as ITV & Sky generally put City with Arsenal - though this choice will be with BT Sport this time.
The TV pairs are never advertised by journalists before hand even though they are known to them but they ARE fundamental in determining who the 2nd club in the pair CAN'T face! It turns the draw into a farce as where the 1st team in the pair TOTALLY DETERMINES who the 2nd team in the pair can face.

With all due respect, I don't quite get why you say my post is not quite right and then find exactly the same conclusions as me...

i.e., we are 17th in the seedings, but shalke and dortmund missing out means we need one of
- Barca/Real win league, t'other win CL
- PSG win the title
- Sevilla get 4th place

Another thing you missed out, as discussed near the top of page 3, is that if Napoli win the EL then they're very likely going to jump ahead of us in the club coefficients, pushing us down to 18th in the seedings, meaning we need TWO of the three above to happen.

Also, I think giving PSG a 50% of winning the league is unfairly low. Yes, they are currently 2nd on GD, but they have a game in hand and a much easier run in. In fact, Euro Club Index (whilst not perfect, is at least a good measure for things like this) gives them a whopping 94% chance of winning the title: <a class="postlink" href="http://euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp</a>

Whilst I personally wouldn't go that high, I'd guess it's at least 75%. All they have to do is at least draw their game in hand and then match Lyon's results against an easier fixture list.

 

[ftg]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

What happens if Sevilla win the Europa League? How will that affect the situation with Valencia?

Good Question. As far as I'm aware, Sevilla will gain a fifth champions league spot for Spain, since the remaining CL teams have all pretty much qualified:

"The winners of the 2014–15 UEFA Champions League and 2014–15 UEFA Europa League are each given an additional entry if they do not qualify for the 2015–16 UEFA Champions League through their domestic league. Because a maximum of five teams from one association can enter the UEFA Champions League, if both the Champions League title holders and the Europa League title holders are from the same top three ranked association and finish outside the top four of their domestic league, the fourth-placed team of their association will be moved to the Europa League."

By the sounds of it they don't get bumped to pot 1, so will be below us in rankings (i.e., in pot 3) with nothing really changing otherwise. But this actually raises a good point that I hadn't considered, in which the europa league winner now jumps ahead of us in the club coefficients after the remaining EL games. Looking at the rankings, the closest one behind us is Napoli, who are just over 6 points behind us. If they win the EL it's very likely they'll surpass us, given that they gain 2 points for advancing to the final (+1 from semi and +1 from final), 1 point for each draw and 2 points for each win. So unless they lose to Wolfsburg but go through on agg, then draw their last three games but win the cup on penalties they'll easily catch us. That all means they might actually pip us in the rankings come May.

With Real, Barca, Bayern and Juve left in the CL after tonight, the best we can hope for is one of Real/Barca to win La Liga, and the other to win CL. Otherwise we have to rely on PSG winning Ligue 1/Valencia messing up.

Oh and now we need Napoli to not win the europa league.

Simples(?)

If Sevilla finish in 4th place in La Liga, and also win the Europa League, do they take the La Liga place or the Europa League one? If they take the Europa League place does that mean Valencia can finish 5th and still qualify for the Champion's League? I assume not but I'm not sure.

La liga place. The extra berths reserved for CL and EL winners are only if they don't qualify through the usual means. So Valencia would miss out, and we'd all be happy.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

It's about time they sorted the seeding mess out. At least use a proper fair scoring system like ELO ffs.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

Up to date coefficients are here:
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/ ... ings/club/</a>

Up to date figures at the above site have Napoli on 80.355 pts and City on 87.078

The rules for the Europa League indicate:

Since 2009/10, clubs have been guaranteed a minimum of two points if they reach the group stage and are awarded an additional point if they get to the quarter-finals, semi-finals or final.

If the above are cumulative points and they win the Europa QF, SF and Final that is only 3 more points, which isn't enough to get a larger coefficient than us.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

With all due respect, I don't quite get why you say my post is not quite right and then find exactly the same conclusions as me...

i.e., we are 17th in the seedings, but shalke and dortmund missing out means we need one of
- Barca/Real win league, t'other win CL
- PSG win the title
- Sevilla get 4th place

Another thing you missed out, as discussed near the top of page 3, is that if Napoli win the EL then they're very likely going to jump ahead of us in the club coefficients, pushing us down to 18th in the seedings, meaning we need TWO of the three above to happen.

Also, I think giving PSG a 50% of winning the league is unfairly low. Yes, they are currently 2nd on GD, but they have a game in hand and a much easier run in. In fact, Euro Club Index (whilst not perfect, is at least a good measure for things like this) gives them a whopping 94% chance of winning the title: <a class="postlink" href="http://euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp</a>

Whilst I personally wouldn't go that high, I'd guess it's at least 75%. All they have to do is at least draw their game in hand and then match Lyon's results against an easier fixture list.

I misread part of your post - apologies!

Well if PSG have a 75% chance all the better! & as I indicate above, Napoli can't overtake us this season.

 

[HalfwayUpTheKippax]

Re: Champions League 2015/16 seedings - City in pot 2/3?

It's about time they sorted the seeding mess out. At least use a proper fair scoring system like ELO ffs.

Now that's Blue Sky thinking!