Champions League 2023/24 - Last 16 Draw | City v Copenhagen | Tues 13th Feb (A) Weds 6th March (H)

[johnnytapia]

It’ll be the knock on effect of Leipzig only being able to draw 5 teams and Dortmund and Bayern 6.

We have 7 possibilities, which, if uniform, would be 14.28571% each, but because the German sides are more likely to draw certain sides, that means we are slightly less likely to draw them as a result.

I couldn’t give you the formula for that though!

Hope that makes sense…

Genau!

 

[Gremlin]

Was Porto for me as well, sorted ;)

Porto for me as well - it's a sign!

 

[Alfie Budd]

Does anyone know why PSG & Copenhagen are slightly more likely?

I’m not a statistician but I suspect it’s because they finished second in the two groups with German first place teams.
Bayern and Dortmund each have a lower number of potential opponents (six) than any of the other group winners (seven) due to Leipzig being a second placed team. That means the other group winners are slightly more likely to get PSG or Copenhagen than any other possibility.
Edit @Alan Harper's Tash explained it far more succinctly than me!

 

[ali benarbia's studs]

Lazio, Porto or Copenhagen
....
More Porto for great weather and beautiful locals

 

[St.Pauli support]

Another simulator including probabilities:
https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/

Press "draw random team" repeatedly.

 

[Gingers Dad]

Premier league not quite as strong as some think, only two sides in the knockout stages

PL is strong. Both utd and Newcastle were in very tough groups

 

[Gingers Dad]

Lazio, Porto or Copenhagen
....
More Porto for great weather and beautiful locals

and for cheap beer and food

 

[Gingers Dad]

Man did I fuck that up. lol...

Did it three times and got three different Italian teams

 

[The Fish]

If I were you I'd not be afraid of PSG or Dortmund. We were one dodgy penalty away from taking 6pts off PSG and if we had a full strength team I'd have fancied us to have gotten through ahead of them anyway.

 

[Alfie Budd]

Some draws are obviously gentler than others but without wishing to come across as entitled and arrogant, we shouldn’t be too worried about any of these teams. They all finished second in their groups for a reason and we will be the ones that none of them want to face.
As has been the case for the last half dozen or so seasons, the tough questions will come from the QF onwards.