Champions League Groups (Update p6)

[DenisLawBackHeel74]

Even though we have had the group of death in both CL campaigns I've thoroughly enjoyed the fact we have played many of the top teams and watched some fantastic football. I'd be happy enough with a tough group again, playing the best makes you better IMO.

 

[St Helens Blue (Exiled)]

All this pot 2 or pot 3 working out...

Does it really matter..It's 11 v 11 at the end of the day and we just have to perform on the pitch..Feck me,after this seasons draw it really is a total irrelevence which group we are in.

 

[stefranceuk]

Bring on Whoever we get, its been great playing the likes of Mardid, Bayern and Dortmund!

I reckon Barca this year!

 

[kun]

Bring on Whoever we get, its been great playing the likes of Mardid, Bayern and Dortmund!

I reckon Barca this year!

Yeah, I reckon something like:
Barca
Schalke
City
Celtic

 

[Coljj]

Which pots are Juve, PSG and Dortmund likely to be in next season?

Pulling for Spurs to get 4th today as then there's a 50-50 chance we get one of Barca, Bayern or Madrid instead of 60-40 if Arsenal get 4th.

 

[Bluesiam]

We can still make pot two if:

Freiburg win at home to Schalke 04 this weekend (possible)
Real Sociedad beat Valencia to fourth (possible)
Arsenal lose at Newcastle and Spurs win at home to Sunderland this weekend (doubtful)
AC Milan lose at Siena and Fiorentina win at Pescara this weekend (very doubtful).

Should they all qualify, Schalke 04, Valencia, Arsenal and AC Milan as well as Zenit St Petersburg and probably Lyon will have play-offs to reach the group stage.

We need four of these teams to not qualify to reach pot two.

Thought we were better off in Pot 3?

Couldn't agree more!

 

[cibaman]

Which pots are Juve, PSG and Dortmund likely to be in next season?

Pulling for Spurs to get 4th today as then there's a 50-50 chance we get one of Barca, Bayern or Madrid instead of 60-40 if Arsenal get 4th.

Which team would replace Arsenal in Pot 1? Athletico?

 

[MCRJON]

So, to recap, lots of time on my hands. Developing a model to predict champs league draw - bordering on obsession.

I added a random 'football' factor into the draws to mix up the teams who come through each qualifying round. Previously this has been based purely on UEFA coefficients.

The teams with the higher co-efficients are still more likely to get through however this does throw up some more random (and fun) outputs.

I ran the model about 50 times before the right set of results came out for City to sneak into POT2. This involves a lot of low coefficient teams coming through qualifying. We ended up with

Group 6 Team Country COEF
POT16 Barcelona Spain 157.605
POT26 Man City England 70.535
POT36 FC Basel Switzerland 59.785
POT46 Steaua Bucharest Romania 35.604

In other more fun news, we have had some teams who have no right to get into the group phases sneak through,

Group 8 Team Country COEF
POT18 Barcelona Spain 157.605
POT28 Marseille France 78.8
POT37 Man City England 70.535
POT48 Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro 1.3

In one running, EB Strymur, who enter in the first qualifying round made it through to the Play-Off round.

If anyone else wants to geek out at some excel modelling PM me and ill send it over.

 

[CatMan]

So, to recap, lots of time on my hands. Developing a model to predict champs league draw - bordering on obsession.

I added a random 'football' factor into the draws to mix up the teams who come through each qualifying round. Previously this has been based purely on UEFA coefficients.

The teams with the higher co-efficients are still more likely to get through however this does throw up some more random (and fun) outputs.

I ran the model about 50 times before the right set of results came out for City to sneak into POT2. This involves a lot of low coefficient teams coming through qualifying. We ended up with

Group 6 Team Country COEF
POT16 Barcelona Spain 157.605
POT26 Man City England 70.535
POT36 FC Basel Switzerland 59.785
POT46 Steaua Bucharest Romania 35.604

In other more fun news, we have had some teams who have no right to get into the group phases sneak through,

Group 8 Team Country COEF
POT18 Barcelona Spain 157.605
POT28 Marseille France 78.8
POT37 Man City England 70.535
POT48 Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro 1.3

In one running, EB Strymur, who enter in the first qualifying round made it through to the Play-Off round.

If anyone else wants to geek out at some excel modelling PM me and ill send it over.

P

 

[Blue Til Death]

All this pot 2 or pot 3 working out...

Does it really matter..It's 11 v 11 at the end of the day and we just have to perform on the pitch..Feck me,after this seasons draw it really is a total irrelevence which group we are in.

Yeh but we wanna know where we are going on the piss SHB so the groups are more important than you first thought are they not??