Champions League Groups (Update p6)

[woolleyback blue]

The MUEN have an article about the CL draw. What are City's worst case and best case scenario's at the moment?

 

[Mr Ed (The Stables)]

The MUEN have an article about the CL draw. What are City's worst case and best case scenario's at the moment?

-- Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:56 pm --

Here's the article for those that can't access it:

Euro woe: Pellegrini and Moyes both facing groups of death
18 Jun 2013 07:48

City could have to negotiate a pool with Spanish champions Barcelona, French Ligue 1 winners Paris Saint-Germain and Serie A’s Napoli City and United could both be handed groups of death in the Champions League next season.

The Blues are set to be included in the third pot of seeds when the draw for the group stages is held in Monaco on August 29.

It means – having crashed out without a win in a group including Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax last season – they could have to negotiate a pool with Spanish champions Barcelona, French Ligue 1 winners Paris Saint-Germain and Serie A’s Napoli to qualify for the knock-out stages for the first time.

The best case scenario for new boss Manuel Pellegrini’s side would be a group with FC Porto, Marseilles and Celtic, if the Scottish champions make it through the qualifiers.

Because of their recent

European record, Premier League champions United are guaranteed a place in pot one alongside Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Porto, Benfica and Arsenal – if the Gunners win through their final qualifying round match.

But David Moyes could still find himself in what would be a nightmare group with big-spending Paris Saint-Germain, last season’s beaten finalists Borussia Dortmund and Napoli in his first season as Reds boss.

City could pay for two years of Euro disappointment with another Champions League group of death next season.

After failing to make the knock-out rounds in either of the last two seasons, Manuel Pellegrini is set for a baptism of fire in Europe with City likely to be in pot three when the draw for the group stage takes place in Monaco on August 29.

It means they will definitely face one of the competition’s top seeds which include – amongst others – Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.

In pot two for last season’s draw, City were grouped with Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax.

They failed to win a game, finishing bottom of the group with just three points as they came up against a Madrid side which reached the last four and a Dortmund team that went all the way to the final at Wembley, where they lost to Bayern Munich.

At the end of the season, chief executive Ferran Soriano accepted City had been handed a tough draw but hinted they should have performed better.

“I think there is no magic to this in terms of superstitions,” he said.

“It is just that it’s more difficult, the Champions League is more difficult. The level is higher. We were a bit unlucky with the group.

“You are used to playing your football against your domestic opposition and you go and play somewhere else and the team’s prepared very well for the game, so it’s more competitive.

“It’s the real measure. And this real measure we failed. So we’ve got to keep improving.”

In the short-term, last season’s failure meant they were dumped out of Europe before Christmas without even the consolation of a place in the Europa League.

But long-term, it also meant they missed the chance to significantly improve their UEFA club coefficient, the formula used to work out the seeding for each club qualified for European competition.

Teams in the Champions League are awarded four points for participating in the group stage, two points for each win in the group and one point for a draw.

Qualification for the round of 16 is rewarded with an extra four points.

Each club’s coefficient is calculated by adding the points earned over the previous five years plus 20 per cent of the member association’s coefficient – in City’s case England.

Ahead of the 2011 draw, City were ranked 42nd in UEFA’s coefficient table.

They earned 20.050 points after finishing the group with 10 points and jumped 14 places to 28th before last season’s draw.

It was enough to earn promotion into the second pot of seeds.

But a disappointing campaign last season earned only 10.285 points, moving City up just six places to 22nd.

With many of the clubs ahead of them in the coefficient table already qualified for the group stages, they will likely find themselves back in pot three this time.

But it’s not written in stone and City could still get a reprieve.

They might sit 22nd in UEFA’s table but only 18 teams ranked above them have

qualified for the Champions League (Inter Milan finished ninth in their domestic league, Valencia fifth and Liverpool seventh).

Of those 18, five teams – Arsenal, Lyon, AC Milan, Schalke and Zenit St Petersburg – will have to negotiate a qualifying round to guarantee a place in the groups.

With each pot of seeds

containing eight teams, City need only to be in the top 16 of those who qualify for the group stage to be seeded in pot two.

It means if three of Arsenal, Lyon, Milan, Schalke or Zenit fail to make the group stage, City would be included in pot two.

If, as expected, City have to settle for a place in pot three they could face a third straight season in a nightmare group.

With City unable to be paired with another English team, the worst case scenario would be a group with Lionel Messi’s Barcelona, big- spending French champions Paris Saint-Germain and Italian side Napoli.

But they are due a bit of luck when the balls are pulled out of the big glass bowls and, even from pot three, they could find yet themselves in a group with Porto, Marseille and Scottish champions Celtic.

If the worst does happen, City fans can take comfort from new boss Pellegrini’s Champions League record.

In 2005, his Villarreal side knocked Everton out to qualify for the group stages where they were drawn against Benfica, Lille and United.

They weren’t expected to go any further but they remained unbeaten and finished top of the group before reaching the semi-finals.

Pellegrini repeated the trick last season with Spanish side Malaga.

Grouped with Milan, Zenit St Petersburg and Anderlecht, Malaga finished with 12 points to top the group.

They beat Porto in the second round and came within 30 seconds of ousting eventual finalists Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals.

City can also take heart from Dortmund’s run to the final last season.

After finishing bottom of their group in 2011, they won a group which included Real Madrid, Ajax and City last season before reaching Wembley.

Premier League champions United, meanwhile, will be in the top pot of seeds for this season’s draw.

But it’s no guarantee of any easy ride.

They could still draw Paris Saint-Germain from pot two, Borussia Dortmund from pot three and Napoli from pot four.

Alternatively, they could also get Marseille, Olympiakos and Celtic.

It always baffles me that a team that has to "Qualify" end up in Pot One, something doesn't sit right with that.

I have a feeling in my water that we'll get out of the Group stage this season no matter who we play, perhaps it will be third time lucky!!

 

[supercity88]

I think we will be alright this year. We will have a better team and a manager with the nouse to get us through the group. I also think we will get a better group than usual and I think there are likely to be tougher groups for United (about time) and Arsenal if they qualify.

 

[cleavers]

The MUEN have an article about the CL draw. What are City's worst case and best case scenario's at the moment?

-- Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:56 pm --

Here's the article for those that can't access it:

Euro woe: Pellegrini and Moyes both facing groups of death
18 Jun 2013 07:48

City could have to negotiate a pool with Spanish champions Barcelona, French Ligue 1 winners Paris Saint-Germain and Serie A’s Napoli City and United could both be handed groups of death in the Champions League next season.

The Blues are set to be included in the third pot of seeds when the draw for the group stages is held in Monaco on August 29.

It means – having crashed out without a win in a group including Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax last season – they could have to negotiate a pool with Spanish champions Barcelona, French Ligue 1 winners Paris Saint-Germain and Serie A’s Napoli to qualify for the knock-out stages for the first time.

The best case scenario for new boss Manuel Pellegrini’s side would be a group with FC Porto, Marseilles and Celtic, if the Scottish champions make it through the qualifiers.

Because of their recent

European record, Premier League champions United are guaranteed a place in pot one alongside Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Porto, Benfica and Arsenal – if the Gunners win through their final qualifying round match.

But David Moyes could still find himself in what would be a nightmare group with big-spending Paris Saint-Germain, last season’s beaten finalists Borussia Dortmund and Napoli in his first season as Reds boss.

City could pay for two years of Euro disappointment with another Champions League group of death next season.

After failing to make the knock-out rounds in either of the last two seasons, Manuel Pellegrini is set for a baptism of fire in Europe with City likely to be in pot three when the draw for the group stage takes place in Monaco on August 29.

It means they will definitely face one of the competition’s top seeds which include – amongst others – Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.

In pot two for last season’s draw, City were grouped with Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax.

They failed to win a game, finishing bottom of the group with just three points as they came up against a Madrid side which reached the last four and a Dortmund team that went all the way to the final at Wembley, where they lost to Bayern Munich.

At the end of the season, chief executive Ferran Soriano accepted City had been handed a tough draw but hinted they should have performed better.

“I think there is no magic to this in terms of superstitions,” he said.

“It is just that it’s more difficult, the Champions League is more difficult. The level is higher. We were a bit unlucky with the group.

“You are used to playing your football against your domestic opposition and you go and play somewhere else and the team’s prepared very well for the game, so it’s more competitive.

“It’s the real measure. And this real measure we failed. So we’ve got to keep improving.”

In the short-term, last season’s failure meant they were dumped out of Europe before Christmas without even the consolation of a place in the Europa League.

But long-term, it also meant they missed the chance to significantly improve their UEFA club coefficient, the formula used to work out the seeding for each club qualified for European competition.

Teams in the Champions League are awarded four points for participating in the group stage, two points for each win in the group and one point for a draw.

Qualification for the round of 16 is rewarded with an extra four points.

Each club’s coefficient is calculated by adding the points earned over the previous five years plus 20 per cent of the member association’s coefficient – in City’s case England.

Ahead of the 2011 draw, City were ranked 42nd in UEFA’s coefficient table.

They earned 20.050 points after finishing the group with 10 points and jumped 14 places to 28th before last season’s draw.

It was enough to earn promotion into the second pot of seeds.

But a disappointing campaign last season earned only 10.285 points, moving City up just six places to 22nd.

With many of the clubs ahead of them in the coefficient table already qualified for the group stages, they will likely find themselves back in pot three this time.

But it’s not written in stone and City could still get a reprieve.

They might sit 22nd in UEFA’s table but only 18 teams ranked above them have

qualified for the Champions League (Inter Milan finished ninth in their domestic league, Valencia fifth and Liverpool seventh).

Of those 18, five teams – Arsenal, Lyon, AC Milan, Schalke and Zenit St Petersburg – will have to negotiate a qualifying round to guarantee a place in the groups.

With each pot of seeds

containing eight teams, City need only to be in the top 16 of those who qualify for the group stage to be seeded in pot two.

It means if three of Arsenal, Lyon, Milan, Schalke or Zenit fail to make the group stage, City would be included in pot two.

If, as expected, City have to settle for a place in pot three they could face a third straight season in a nightmare group.

With City unable to be paired with another English team, the worst case scenario would be a group with Lionel Messi’s Barcelona, big- spending French champions Paris Saint-Germain and Italian side Napoli.

But they are due a bit of luck when the balls are pulled out of the big glass bowls and, even from pot three, they could find yet themselves in a group with Porto, Marseille and Scottish champions Celtic.

If the worst does happen, City fans can take comfort from new boss Pellegrini’s Champions League record.

In 2005, his Villarreal side knocked Everton out to qualify for the group stages where they were drawn against Benfica, Lille and United.

They weren’t expected to go any further but they remained unbeaten and finished top of the group before reaching the semi-finals.

Pellegrini repeated the trick last season with Spanish side Malaga.

Grouped with Milan, Zenit St Petersburg and Anderlecht, Malaga finished with 12 points to top the group.

They beat Porto in the second round and came within 30 seconds of ousting eventual finalists Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals.

City can also take heart from Dortmund’s run to the final last season.

After finishing bottom of their group in 2011, they won a group which included Real Madrid, Ajax and City last season before reaching Wembley.

Premier League champions United, meanwhile, will be in the top pot of seeds for this season’s draw.

But it’s no guarantee of any easy ride.

They could still draw Paris Saint-Germain from pot two, Borussia Dortmund from pot three and Napoli from pot four.

Alternatively, they could also get Marseille, Olympiakos and Celtic.

It always baffles me that a team that has to "Qualify" end up in Pot One, something doesn't sit right with that.

I have a feeling in my water that we'll get out of the Group stage this season no matter who we play, perhaps it will be third time lucky!!

So basically nobody knows yet, all them words wasted ;o)

 

[Gabriel]

If I remember correctly, we ended up in the tough group past season because Dortmund and Bayern couldn't playon the same evening because of television rights; Cluj ended up being placed with United instead.

I think the draw can probably be fathomed already save for one or two permutations.

 

[Padre]

If I remember correctly, we ended up in the tough group past season because Dortmund and Bayern couldn't playon the same evening because of television rights.

Same next year mate. We will have a 1 in 3 chance of being drawn against Bayern. Leverkusen are likely to jump up to pot 3 as they only need one team from the six not already qualified to fall.

 

[NoahCity]

no point really speculating with the pots not even confirmed yet. We could get a good a group or bad one, all luck. I still think though we will get out of group stages no matter what.

 

[JGL07]

If I remember correctly, we ended up in the tough group past season because Dortmund and Bayern couldn't play on the same evening because of television rights.

Same next year mate. We will have a 1 in 3 chance of being drawn against Bayern. Leverkusen are likely to jump up to pot 3 as they only need one team from the six not already qualified to fall.

1 in 5 surely? City can draw Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern, Porto, or Benfica. It will be a 1 in 6 shot in the (unlikely) event that Arsenal fail to qualify and Athletico are elevated to Pot 1. From a Bayern perspective they will have a 1 in 6 chance of drawing City even if Leverkusen are promoted to Pot 3.

There are only five places available for qualifiers from the non-champions section. The champions who require to qualify are all ranked lower than City.

If City can avoid PSG and Juventus from Pot 2 and Napoli from Pot 4 I will be happy. Porto or Benfica would be nice from Pot 1 but is unlikely to happen.

 

[Centurions]

The coefficient system gives me a headache but how much of a failure or how long perhaps would it take for the rags to fall out of pot 1? Or is it so bent for the top clubs that they would have to not qualify for 5 years?

 

[Rodney Marsh's Hair]

Let's remember though!!!

There will be a LOT of teams hoping to avoid us. That's how we should be looking at the draw. Nobody will relish playing us at all.