The bookies have us at evens for the win but I make us slight favourites, not least because I think the atmosphere will take a few by surprise, but mainly because I'm not sure Spurs know how to be cagey.
They simply can't play 5 in midfield, for one thing I don't think they have the personnel, and for another it would be very odd to try a new formation in the biggest game of the season (see how far it got Hughes in the away game!)
He will play Huddlestone and Palacios in midfield but that's all he can do to tighten things up. Bale will be left back because if, as expected, King doesn't start, Bassong will likely fill in at CB. And he is the no genuinely defensive option for left back. The only possibility outside of King starting is Corluka returning to RB, with Kaboul in the centre. But I reckon it will be Bale at left back with Modric on the left of midfield, Lennon on the right, with Crouch and Defoe up front.
The more I think about this the more I think we will get the win. Spurs away record against good teams is poor. Lost at Chelsea, Liverpool, rags and Arsenal, ten goals conceded, one scored. The 1-1 at Villa was their best effort.
Away wins against good teams? Don't see any. Of course they don't need a win, but the only times you could say they got a 'good' draw away were the FA cup ties (against Bolton, and an understrength Fulham), and the 1-1 at Villa clearly counts. Maybe the 0-0 in the league game at Fulham, were Gomez pulled off a string of fantastic saves, but in the 2-2 at Everton they went two in front in the second half but still didn't win.
Their recent run has been all about the home form, 6 of their last 9 league games were at home. They've lost their last two aways 3-1. Admittedly they've won two away games in the prem since the turn of the year, but a 3-0 against a notoriously dodgy Wigan side and a 2-1 at Stoke who had a man sent of at half time aren't exactly amazing.
That has to be balanced against our home form against good sides. I would say we more or less played for the draws against Liverpool and Rags, so I'm not too worried about them. In recent times, the Everton loss stands out, and the home draw against Stoke in the FA cup was disappointing. But there are wins against Chelsea, Arsenal, Utd in the first leg, and most recently Villa.
I reckon the game will follow the same pattern as against Villa. I can see them taking the lead, probably a wonder-goal from Defoe. But I can't see them getting more than one, the only time that's happened under Mancini at COMS was Everton. And I can definitely see us scoring twice, only times that hasn't happened at home under Mancini was that Everton game, and the Rags/Liverpool. Tottenham's defence is accomplished but Adebayor and Tevez have a lot of brute power, and we all know how good we are at running with the ball. I think there will surely be enough opportunites for them.
