bitsmith said:
CaliforniaBlue said:
Someone posted the tie-breaker rules on the match thread and it's just the traditional goal difference as the first tie breaker iirc. Since we're now at -1 and Roma and CSKA are both -4, any draw takes us through as long as CSKA don't beat Bayern, and any win takes us through as long as CSKA don't beat Bayern by 3 more than we win by.
Not any draw. head to head is first, 0:0 draw and Roma qualifies.
Quite right - I realized after posting this that I'd mis-read the tiebreaker rules. I thought it was straight goal difference (in which case 0-0 would work for us), but it's actually goal difference between the teams tied on points. If only two teams have the same points, that becomes a straight head-to-head, but if three teams are tied, it's the goal difference from all the games between those three teams.
If CSKA lose, then a tie would put us head-to-head with Roma and then we'd lose out with a 0-0 on away goals. If we tie 1-1, we'd be tied head-to-head with Roma, in which case the next tiebreaker is total goal difference in the group, which would put us through on account of their 7-1 loss to Bayern.
If CSKA draws with Bayern, we need to beat Roma, as this would put all three teams on 6 points, and Roma have a much better goal difference than us in the games between the three.