CL Last 16 (Dinamo Kiev) (NO City away fans) (24 feb and 15 mar)

dasein said:
Sorry but I don't get it, how can you know the chances % of getting each opponent?
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Because nearly every team has teams they can't draw. For instance we can't get Arsenal or Juventus, Chelsea can't get Arsenal or Kiev, Zenit can't get Kiev or Gent. Since two teams can't draw Kiev the other 6 group winners are more likely to draw Kiev than most of the other teams. Also since neither English group winner can draw Arsenal the non English teams have a greater chance of drawing Arsenal than they do for example Juventus.
 
aguero93:20 said:
Because nearly every team has teams they can't draw. For instance we can't get Arsenal or Juventus, Chelsea can't get Arsenal or Kiev, Zenit can't get Kiev or Gent. Since two teams can't draw Kiev the other 6 group winners are more likely to draw Kiev than most of the other teams. Also since neither English group winner can draw Arsenal the non English teams have a greater chance of drawing Arsenal than they do for example Juventus.
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Right, but how do you work out the percentage? It doesn't make sense to me
 
aguero93:20 said:
Because nearly every team has teams they can't draw. For instance we can't get Arsenal or Juventus, Chelsea can't get Arsenal or Kiev, Zenit can't get Kiev or Gent. Since two teams can't draw Kiev the other 6 group winners are more likely to draw Kiev than most of the other teams. Also since neither English group winner can draw Arsenal the non English teams have a greater chance of drawing Arsenal than they do for example Juventus.
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Correct. Probability theory.
 
Aguerovic said:
It's all Advanced Level Maths.
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I'll have a go.

If you and I could be allocated an apple or an orange it would look like you had a 50/50 chance of the Apple but if you knew that it was impossible for me to get the orange then the likelihood of you getting the apple drops to zero percent. Apply that over multiple outcomes for 8 people and 8 fruits and you get the percentages. Not easy to calculate but correct.
 
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