Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Churchlawtonblue said:
when did i say we should open up too soon.? I said actually exactly the opposite. Ie 22 days after all the at risk groups down to say 50 or 55s which will be end of March have had their first jab.

You clearly have a scientific background in this field, The AZ results are what they are. No hospital admissions after 22days of a first dose. Surely they were done in the real world, If not where were they done? Not sure what you mean by that statement.

Hospital admissions should then be very low after 55s have been vaccinated and manageable.

Opening things up then makes perfect sense.
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Thanks for the clarification. I thought you meant the priority groups, which is just down to u70s I think.

I think "opening up" to near normal requires something like:

1. Headroom in hospitals in case things go in the wrong direction, and to enable the health service to . Both total COVID beds and ICU COVID beds to a small fraction of what they are now.
2. Very low case load - I'd suggest well down into the hundreds, as it was last summer. That means that if cases start growing, it can be contained without trashing the health service again. Or if the vaccine isn't quite as good as we hope, we can readjust to getting 2nd doses in place.
3. Track and trace up to speed. Again, to keep a lid on any outbreaks, including new variants of concern.
4. Doing it slowly. Primary schools / wait a couple of weeks, Secondary schools/ wait a couple of weeks. Shops, pubs with social distancing, etc until we get a full Etihad in September. If we're lucky, and vaccine passports might be essential for mass gatherings if we haven't got really high vaccine coverage.

All the things we're really missing like pubs, family gatherings, footie, will come faster in the end rather than slower if we keep this controlled.

On "real world" - clinical trials are very closely controlled. Everyone has the jab exactly when they should, eligible people are closely checked, the population often omits the most vulnerable. Just for instance, here whilst the trials did include over 70s, fully half of the deaths in the real world are in over 80s. Will that even older group respond as well? We don't know. Will the 2nd jab make more of a difference for those people? Probably. Most medical treatments show better results in clinical trials where these things are closely controlled than when used with the general public. The emerging Israeli data, for instance, doesn't look quite as good as the trial data (though *very* early to judge, and still very good from what we can see).
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
at the end of the day, we had a choice of try giving them a vaccine and hope it works or be resigned to many of them dying anyway given the wave of the new variant. So worth the risk regardless of the outcome imo. As many as possible have been given the Pfizer stocks we have available so we've done what we can.
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Fully agree. My parents have had the AZ jab and I'm delighted.

I'm just saying that alternative views to that aren't necessarily political or nationalistic, just a different judgement of risk/benefit.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
It's very frustrating though that there is such a drop off in the early part of each week. I can't understand why a Monday should be so different to a Thursday or Friday.
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Have you never seen a graph for days list due to “ sickness” ? The weekend has an unbelievably deleterious effect on the general wellbeing ofJoe Public. No one has quite fathomed out why yet although whispers of increased alcoholic intake has been mooted on more than one occasion (ie every week since Adam had his first home made cider in the garden of Eden).
 
Regional scoreboard highlights: Totals today versus last wk and 2 wks ago

South

East down 113 to 1753 v 2002 v 3556

London down 86 to 2765 v 3816 v 6237

South East UP 160 to 2210 v 2620 v 4588

South West down 432 to 876 v 1351 v 2108


Midlands

East Midlands down 178 to 1439 v 1394 v 2664

West Midlands down 197 to 1962 v 1438 v 4152


North

North East UP 38 to 753 v 863 v 1066

Yorkshire down 333 to 1059 v 1520 v 2087


NORTH WEST

Falls by 210 to 2319 - below London but ahead of all other regions still,

V 2997 v 4010

GREATER MANCHESTER

Falls by 110 to 831 - lowest GM total since Christmas.

This is a bigger pro rata fall of the NW fall and as such GM fell to 35.8 % of the NW total (down 1.4% in the day)

This is down from 36.7% last Tuesday but up from 29.1% the Tuesday before
 
i8rags said:
Mum rushed in Sunday, dad rushed in today on 17th day after vaccine, stats say no one after 22 days is hospitalised, 5 fucking days is all he needed.
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Sorry to hear. Hope they get well soon.
Note: The 22 days is only for the O-AZ jab. There are no numbers for the Pfizer jab yet
 
Sad news about Tom Moore.

i do wonder how he was allowed to have two family members present whilst thousands have died alone. I assume that a special case was not made and that policy has been changed (for the better) at that particular hospital
 
Greater Manchester Summary:

Some low numbers today:

Manchester well down and sub 200 for first time in 5 weeks.

Only two others above 100 - Salford and Wigan - both only just.

The other 7 all below 100 - Trafford being the star again with only 41 - lowest yet in a run of 10 straight below 100 numbers that has put it back up to the top of the tree.

Rochdale the only one up week to week and that by just 7.

Will be a lot of Weekly Pop Score falls and almost certainly nobody in GM now above 300 for the first time since Christmas.
 
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