Coronavirus (2021) thread

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PoorTom said:
I think in most of the points you listed, mRNA based vaccines are superior
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I don't think we know yet on most.

Thus far, vector vaccines are much better on ease of administration.

RNA are probably better on side effects, though can't be sure yet.

RNA may be better on some efficacy measures, though again, uncertain.

The rest I don't think there's good evidence yet.

Overall, there looks to be very little to choose between them.
 
The mRNA vaccines will open more pathways to health care in future. No question. But as they are so new issues - if they exist - are likely to take longer to become apparent. There hopefully will be none. But I think the way AZ has been painted as the best we could do in a hurry is vastly under selling the things it has achieved.

Far too many presume vaccines exist to stop you catching a disease. That is hardly ever their main aim. It is to mitigate the impact so they are much less dangerous.

People will always die from nasty diseases usually as a factor of age, underlying conditions triggering consequences most others never face. By moderating that impact we save lives. No vaccine will ever save every life. But if it stops people getting so sick they do not need to be in hospital and then swamp the resources and cost lives from other conditions that have had to be de-prioritised because of Covid then the vaccine is far more effective than any raw stats on how many people still catch Covid after having it. Because that is not really the point of vaccination. It is to moderate and mitigate not kill the virus.

Could we have waited in December and used only the 'better' vaccine? Yes. Some places did. Where are they now? Far worse off because they waited. We took a bit of a gamble I agree on AZ but it looks like our scientists got that right and many people are alive now who would not have been after last winter otherwise.

The reality is AZ will have played just as big a part in saving lives when the sums are done because it is cheap and easy to administer versus the new experimental drugs created specifically - and commercially - not altruistically like AZ. Arguably a greater part when the whole world is taken into account where there is little chance some nations will be able to use just other vaccines in time.

What will be true is that the mRNA technology has accelerated scientific progress overnight by a decade and we will see huge medical advances emerging that may well be revolutionary.

For me this is a win/win from both vaccines and we need to acknowledge that more than we are doing because this was turned into some kind of competition not a genuine effort by the whole of humanity to literally save the world
 
Wales data:

0 deaths - was 3 last week

79 cases - was 62 last week


It is not clear if this is just Friday data as the 62 was from last week. Because normally they now post Saturday and Sunday on Monday in one go. But they note they are not publishing numbers tomorrow as it is Bank Holiday.

So either this is Friday and Saturday or on Tuesday they will post Saturday, Sunday and Monday in one go.

Unfortunately they say nothing about this only that they are not posting tomorrow!
 
Wales Vaccination Update:

1, 854, 687 first doses given - 23, 723 given - was 14, 515 on Friday & 10, 47 last Sunday.

769. 719 second doses given - 21, 019 given - was 16, 057 Friday & 16, 636 last Sunday


I assume this IS the past two days. But far from sure. No idea why they cannot clarify.
 
paulchapo said:
If nobody is coming in from there it shouldn't be coming here. Hopefully that is watertight, as it should be with all countries who have spikes like this
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British and Irish citizens can still return from India or any other red list country subject to compulsory hotel quarantine.
 
PoorTom said:
Agreed, that's why I took what has been offered (AZ) but with a heavy heart.

I think in most of the points you listed, mRNA based vaccines are superior.

Anyway, we will see when we start to have yearly refresher doses. I bet they will be mRNA.
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Do you work in the pharmaceutical industry or are you involved in vaccine research at a university? Have you read any detailed research that has come to these conclusions?
Or have you arrived at your opinion from reading a few articles in the press and based on internet hearsay?
 
west didsblue said:
Do you work in the pharmaceutical industry or are you involved in vaccine research at a university? Have you read any detailed research that has come to these conclusions?
Or have you arrived at your opinion from reading a few articles in the press and based on internet hearsay?
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The latter, Donald trump told him as he was injecting bleach
 
England hospital deaths - weekend data remember.

3 - with 1 in the North West. That was in Liverpool.

0 yesterday - 2 Friday - 1 Thursday.

Was 6 with 0 last week. 9 with 1 week before and 11 with 3 week before that.

Only one of the last 8 days with deaths ascribed to the actual day is currently in double figures (ie higher than 9) even after add ons)
 
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So today's deaths for the four nations (with likely not much if anything to add from out of hospital England) is:- 4

Last wk it was 10 - wk before 12 - wk before 12 - wk before 17 - wk before 30.

And the cases from the 3 nations with England to come is:- 294

Last wk 311 - wk before 387 - wk before 469 - wk before 630 - wk before 853
 
Unfortunately the fall today was not shared equally.

The North West comes out of it pretty badly. Well up (by 59) on last Sunday when there were more cases. And only 5 down day to day.

Now only 14 behind Yorkshire who fell by 125 today - most in the country.

This is the closest NW has been in a while to being the worst impacted region.

The southern regions all doing well.
 
Greater Manchester sadly up quite a bit week to week - 33 of the NWs 59.

And up day to day by 5 despite the NW falling by 5.

The big reason - sadly - Bolton - that is way out in front again and for a Sunday a worrying number more than double last Sunday.

Good days for Tameside and Stockport both low and five other boroughs in single figures.

But 84 of the 136 cases today belong to Bolton, Manchester and Trafford. Just 52 shared by the other 7.

I hope someone is finding out what is going on in Bolton.

Because it needs resolving as we open up. In August it was problems in that town which spread rapidly to the rest of GM and ended up with the region locked down most of the autumn and winter.
 
Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 2 to 134 v 132

London UP 15 to 216 v 187 (London up bit still behind North West)

South East down 11 to 145 v 164

South West down 28 to 59 v 82 (Lowest here in a month or two)





MIDLANDS

East down 21 to 124 v 98

West down 13 to 130 v 126


Small falls and both up week to week




NORTH

North East down 26 to 54 v 69 (Still lowest region in England and lowest number in six months).

Yorkshire down 125 to 259 v 324 (Remains top BUT easily the biggest fall today and almost fell below the NW).

Still the largest region.


NORTH WEST down 5 to 245 v 186 . Up quite a bit week to week and second highest region again. Much closer to Yorkshire today - as you can see,
 
Greater Manchester Cases


136 cases today - up 5 on yesterday. Despite the small NW drop.

But up 33 from 103 last Sunday. Which is higher than it should be from the NW wk to wk rise of 59.



The city of Liverpool continues to do well but was up today. They had 5 cases from 3. Pop score has risen by just over 2 across 5 days.

Bolton - for comparison - went up 15 today alone and 53 - not 2 - in those same five days. This rise is the most in Greater Manchester in a couple of months.

Bolton may be getting impacted by the Chorley outbreak that Zoe detected? Or cauing it.

But it is now a serious problem for Greater Manchester.

Why is the local media not reporting this?



Bolton - even by its standards recently - had another terrible day topping the tree easily on 41 - up nine3 on the day and 22 week to week. Far ahead of the other boroughs.

Manchester in contrast rose by 9 but was at just 28 - though also up 8 from last week.

Trafford down 1 on 15 - but still high and up up 6 wk to wk. Trafford rose up to 7010 and lost another 4 points to Stockport in the overall Pop Score lead now down to 151 from 200 just a couple of weeks ago.


All the other 7 boroughs managed single figures today:


Wigan on 9 is down 7 on the day but level wk to wk.

Rochdale down 5 also on 9 - which is up 5 week to week.

Salford falls by 3 to 9 again which is down by 8 from last wk.

Bury up 6 to 8 - which is 7 up from last week

Oldham up 2 to 7 on the day - a fall of 5 on last week.

Stockport - down 5 to 6 which is up 1 week to week.



But top of the tree today is:-


Tameside stating on just 4 which is down 3 from last week.



Weekly total cases:-

Bolton running away with the worst weekly numbers - now over 200.



Bury 44, Tameside 57, Stockport 61, Oldham 73, Wigan 75, Rochdale 78, Salford 108, Trafford 114, Manchester 198, Bolton 214,
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 75 / 47 / UP 28 Testing positive 9.2%

Trafford 48 / 34 / UP 14 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 40 / 35 / UP 5 Testing positive 9.0%

Manchester 35 / 49 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 9.6%

Rochdale 35 / 34 / UP 1 Testing positive 9.6%

Oldham 31 / 37 DOWN 6 Testing positive 9.8%

Tameside 25 / 28 DOWN 3 Testing positive 8.1%

Wigan 23 / 24 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 23 / 30 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 9.0%

Stockport 20 / 29 / DOWN 9 Testing positive 7.2%

Only minor changes but Stockport cuts loose on its own as does Bolton going in the opposite direction. And now at the highest any GM borough has been with a Pop Score over the past month.
 
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