Coronavirus (2021) thread

[GazM]

I’m no way as qualified to answer as someone like Heald but my two penny worth..

I think so and the fact that so many are just ignoring lockdown and mixing households. Likely a combination of the two.

Christmas obviously didn’t help. Many didn’t just do Christmas Day, they continued between Christmas and New Year, which is obviously catching up.

A woman at work, she’s two levels up from me, brags about having parties every weekend.

It’s people like this that are the problem.

The government locked down far too late in winter, they could never tell me not to celebrate on Christmas Day but a lockdown like we are in now every day of December and January, other than this day, was needed.

People like this are indeed the problem. What a bunch of utter cvnts. Good job I am not in charge of shit because I would get the army to shoot them. Twice.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Scoreboard:

937 - down from 1042, 36.9% of North West Total which fell by by 326 to 2540. 0.5% rise on yesterday,

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:- 1863 v 1554 v 1243 v 937 Still falling steadily.



Pop Score is cases across whole pandemic v 100,000 people - rises daily but lower the better.

Weekly Pop is same measure across last 7 days only. Can rise or fall depending on if more cases or less occur today v the same day last week.


Either way Up is bad, down is good.



Manchester 194 – down from 215. Total 46, 722. Weekly 1506. Pop score up 35 to 8451. Weekly Pop down 16 to 272.

Oldham 108- up from 95. Total cases 20, 374. Weekly 536. Pop score up 46 to 8593. Unusually highest pop rise for Oldham today. Weekly Pop up 6 to 226.

Stockport 102 - down from from 111. Total cases 17, 886. Weekly 715. Pop score up 35 to 6096. Weekly Pop down 6 to 244.

Bolton 100 - down from 127. Total cases 22, 162. Weekly 789. Pop score up 35 to 7707. Weekly Pop down 8 to 274.

Wigan 86 -down from 132. Total cases 25, 396. Weekly 979. Pop score up 26 to 7753. Weekly Pop down 13 to 254.

Salford 77 - down from 96. Total cases 20, 169. Weekly 675. Pop score up 29 to 7792. Weekly Pop down 16 to 260.

Tameside 71 – up from 51. Total cases 15, 619. Weekly 498. Pop score up 31 to 6896. Weekly Pop down 16 to 220. Huge week to week shift means 58 points fall in 72 hours here.

Trafford 70 - up from 66. Total cases 14, 663. Two weeks now sub 100. Weekly 474. Pop score up 30 to 6178. Picks up another 5 on Stockport's overall pop score lead cutting it to just 82 and catching them fast. Weekly Pop down 10 to 200. Best weekly Pop score in GM. And may be the first GM borough back into the 100s tomorrow for first time in 6 weeks.

Rochdale 68 - down from 85. Total cases 18, 556. Weekly 525. Pop score up 28 to 8341. Weekly Pop down 18 to 234.

Bury 61- down from 64. Total cases 15, 086. Weekly 399. Lowest weekly total in GM in weeks. Pop score up 32 to 7899. Weekly Pop down 9 to 209.


This was a good day with most places down week to week and the GM Weekly Pop scores now all bunched from Trafford at 200 to Bolton at 274. The smallest spread I can recall in months.

Nobody on that basis is in any kind of trouble nationally and all comfortably in the top third of the Pop Score table.

 

[sky tot]

According to Saturday’s Independent, pubs & restaurants could open in April but NO alcohol allowed

 

[cleavers]

According to Saturday’s Independent, pubs & restaurants could open in April but NO alcohol allowed

Clickbait.

 

[zerox]

According to Saturday’s Independent, pubs & restaurants could open in April but NO alcohol allowed

wouldn't worry about anything the Independent runs with.
Sells about 30,000 copies a day. A nothing paper, be gone soon.

 

[cleavers]

Sells about 30,000 copies a day. A nothing paper, be gone soon.

Doesn't matter what they "sell" in actual copies these days, the money they earn is online, so clickbait is the important factor, landing ad revenue, and a sensational piece (of shite) earns them money if people click on it.

 

[blue for life]

Sorry I have not contributed to trying to answer your question, robbieh (had to finish something on a deadline today in my 'day job' so been distracted a bit).

You have already had plenty of good answers. And there are certainly far more qualified people on here to give them than me.

I have no expertise in this and just post the numbers and speculate like most people are doing everywhere tbh.

But we are in winter versus Spring and Summer as in the past. This is a virus that thrives in the winter just like flu does. It was known from day one we would have a bad winter wave if this was still around by then and it has in fact not gone as high or lasted as long as I think most people had feared it might.

To be on such a downward track with 6 weeks of Winter left is encouraging. And suggestive it is going this well partly because national lockdowns work better than regional ones - which I have always believed. But also as we now have this unprecedented nationwide vaccination programme on a scale unseen in the world in a nation like ours. The two together appear to be working. Better than I had hoped.

It could still turn the other way and the true impact of the vaccine is probably still to come. If that works as well as we all hope this will indeed be a good few weeks.

The real risk is over compensating and relaxing too early and letting the virus overtake us when on the last turn towards the home straight.

We could be out of this before any other major economy (though out of it is relative as we will be living with keeping Covid in control for years not weeks - so perhaps much as we were last Summer perhaps - not this winter hopefully ever again). But if we are tempted to jump too soon we may lose all the hard won advantage we are building up.

Like Christmas exiting this lockdown is a critical moment, We have to judge it just right. And not go mad because things look good. A pandemic can turn on a sixpence if we do.

But manage this right and if our luck holds we may be in a better place to recover than many others.

I just hope that if we are then we are generous in how we assist the poorer parts of the world getting out of this too.

We should show leadership and use our fortune to benefit others. Long term we need the world to get through this too and the world will remember who was selfish and looked after themselves and who was ready to help the less fortunate.

I see a huge Covid Aid concert coming this Summer to look forward to perhaps.

I have to admire your enthusiasm on this topic. I like to think I understand stats and figures but you on a higher level!

 

[Marvin]

26m people in the Priority Groups i.e. up to the 50 year olds.

We've vaccinated 10.5m as of 3rd Feb close.

7 day average according to the BBC is 431k per day. There are 26m people in the high risk groups so we have 15.5 m to go.

If we vaccinate at 431k per day then that's 36 days from the 3rd Feb.

Source for current rate: bbc
Source for numbers in the priority groups: health.org.uk

You can obviously tinker with the vaccination rate to see when you think the over 50s will be done. I wont give you the date because I'll get accused of being over-optimistic.

That moment is significant because 3 weeks from that date is the logical latest date for the lockdown to end. In the medium term we have to be wary of mutation, and variant evolving but I think unless that happens really quickly we can handle that with another round of vaccinations in the Autumn.

This was wrong because it turns out that there are 31m in the priority groups.

So as we stand there are 20m left in the priority groups waiting for 1st doses and at 431k per day that's 46 days. However, the 12 week vaccination interval runs out in this time frame so it gets more complicated. An increasing amount of resources will be devoted to 2nd jabs. It is clear though that the target of vaccinating over 50s by the beginning of May is very conservative and is likely to be done well before then.

 

[NeilYoungIsBack]

This was wrong because it turns out that there are 31m in the priority groups.

So as we stand there are 20m left in the priority groups waiting for 1st doses and at 431k per day that's 46 days. However, the 12 week vaccination interval runs out in this time frame so it gets more complicated. An increasing amount of resources will be devoted to 2nd jabs. It is clear though that the target of vaccinating over 50s by the beginning of May is very conservative and is likely to be done well before then.

The encouraging trend is that the rolling 7 day average is still increasing. Based on data up to 4th Feb it is now at 440K per day (i.e., it's gone up by 9K in just one day).

One week ago it was 375K/day.

 

[worsleyweb]

We simply have to start seeing significant changes soon. 400k a day average vaccines say and let’s say 30k a day actually catching it? 11 million been vaccinated. 49 million not but 10 million of them have had it. 10 million kids it doesn’t matter. We are down to about 30 million potentially still exposed? They could be vaccinated in 60 days at this rate?