Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Thats the travel industry fucked again
Feel very sorry for people involved in this sector
 
By the way Zoe App today shows Stockport as an area of rising concern - which I thought might be true in recent days. Though today Stockport did much better in cases reported. So we will see.

UK wide Zoe recorded rises in BOTH cases estimated today and ongoing symptomatic cases. The latter for the first time since January. So very disappointing news and probably tied to the uptick in real data.

The North West is a big factor in this rise it would seem.

Cases were up by 83 at 1090 and ongoing symptomatic cases up by 241 at 15, 055.

Bolton seems to be falling in Zoe still at 341 cases / 1205 estimated (number of active cases reported to the app / estimated number in location per million people inferred)

Stockport is climbing and closing in today on 263 / 909 - highest in many weeks

Other GM boroughs nowhere near this level mostly:

Bury 16 / 83

Manchester 135 / 247

Oldham 12 / 51

Rochdale 13 / 59

Salford 28 / 112

Tameside 150 / 669 (neighbour to Stockport and second worst)

Trafford 69 / 203

Wigan 76 / 234


That looks rather worrying for Stockport and Tameside to a degree too.

Zoe data can be ahead of the game (it is real time reporting not a day or two lag via the reporting to gov uk). Let us hope they have got this one wrong. But they were not with Bolton.

Which if true should mean it will fall in real cases soon as it has now for several days in Bolton on Zoe.
 
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Fascinating graphs Shemnel. Thank you,

I am going to take advantage of the low data over the weekend to post less. That book pdf needs me more as I get paid for that so I can spend it once we are out of this! And not thinking all day about Covid is better than the money.
 
Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down 5 to 219 v 174

London UP 81 to 333 v 310

South East down 37 to 215 v 259

South West down 2 to 118 v 121



Biggest rise of the day in London - stays third behind the two northern regions but all close together.




MIDLANDS

East up 13 to 270 v 179

West down 7 to 179 v 172



NORTH

North East down 42 to 55 v 92 (Second lowest score in 8 months)


Yorkshire down 56 to 350 v 401 (Week to week falls continue and now behind the North West).




NORTH WEST UP 9 to 380 v 278.

Up even more week to week and now the highest numbers in the country again.



GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 16 day to day (double the entire NW rise of 9) but UP 63 week to week - biggest GM rise in month and taking it over 200 to 208 for first time in a month. So GM a but over par over par with 60% of that rise. Most from one place!
 
Healdplace said:
By the way Zoe App today shows Stockport as an area of rising concern - which I thought might be true in recent days. Though today Stockport did much better in cases reported. So we will see.

UK wide Zoe recorded rises in BOTH cases estimated today and ongoing symptomatic cases. The latter for the first time since January. So very disappointing news and probably tied to the uptick in real data.

The North West is a big factor in this rise it would seem.

Cases were up by 83 at 1090 and ongoing symptomatic cases up by 241 at 15, 055.

Bolton seems to be falling in Zoe still at 341 cases / 1205 estimated (number of active cases reported to the app / estimated number in location per million people inferred)

Stockport is climbing and closing in today on 263 / 909 - highest in many weeks

Other GM boroughs nowhere near this level mostly:

Bury 16 / 83

Manchester 135 / 247

Oldham 12 / 51

Rochdale 13 / 59

Salford 28 / 112

Tameside 150 / 669 (neighbour to Stockport and second worst)

Trafford 69 / 203

Wigan 76 / 234


That looks rather worrying for Stockport and Tameside to a degree too.

Zoe data can be ahead of the game (it is real time reporting not a day or two lag via the reporting to gov uk). Let us hope they have got this one wrong. But they were not with Bolton.

Which if true should mean it will fall in real cases soon as it has now for several days in Bolton on Zoe.
Click to expand...

Let’s all remember that unless cases translate into serious illness, they don’t really matter anymore.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


208 cases today - up 16 on yesterday.

And up 63 from 145 last Friday. Biggest week to week rise in some time.




Bolton - had another awful day at 75 - that is up 14 on yesterday and 46 week to week. Biggest weekly increase in any GM borough in ages. And all on its own bringing the county down in the data. Pop score up by 26 today - most by any GM borough in a couple of months. In Contrast today Bury and Stockport rose by a pop score of just 2!


Manchester is up 6 to 39 and further behind than ever but up 2 from last week.

Rochdale takes third place again rising by 4 on 22 - which is up 12 week to week and fourth straight rise from just 9 cases.

Oldham up 5 to 17 on the day - also up 5 wk to wk

Three quarters of the GM total today from these 4 boroughs.

Trafford back up by 7 to 12 - though down 3 wk to wk.

Wigan down 4 also to 12 - which is up 5 wk to wk.

Salford falls by 8 to 10 which is also down 4 on last wk.


Leaving three boroughs in single figures today:-


Tameside down 1 to 9 which is up 2 on last week.


Stockport better down 5 to 8 which is down 1 week to week. Regained 3 Pop Score points on Trafford to cut the gap to 148 for overall lowest Pop score. Not closing that soon but has caught up 50 in past two or three weeks. Of course if Zoe App is right Stockport may yet do a Bolton.

And who else topping the tree......

Bury down 2 to 4 - which is down 1 on last week



Weekly total cases:-

Bolton top 350 cases and streak beyond Manchester. The other eight under 100. Bury look hard to catch though.


Bury 41, Tameside 47, Oldham 67, Stockport 79, Salford 79, Trafford 87, Wigan 88, Rochdale 95, Manchester 197, Bolton 355.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 124 / 63 / UP 61 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 43 / 34 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.6%

Trafford 37 / 45 / DOWN 8 Testing positive 7.0 %

Manchester 35 / 35 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.7%

Salford 31 / 42 / DOWN 11 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 28 / 38 DOWN 10 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 27 / 22 / UP 5 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 26 / 21 / UP 5 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 22 / 23 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.1%

Tameside 21 / 29 DOWN 8 Testing positive 8.2%


Sadly the first time in Greater Manchester that you could say Bolton are in a league of their own. That gulf is what awaits the other boroughs if we let this variant spread. Why I was so frustrated that nobody seemed to be noticing the threat out there as it built up to this and these daily tables made it obvious days ago.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:



Disappointing numbers today. Very small fall of 5 patients in UK hospitals (just 3 in England) - well below last week. And ventilators rose by 1 in England but overall fell by 4 as numbers were better in the other nations.

So little change for a Friday.

The NW added patients today as did three other regions - very unusual on a Friday - which made the difference as others fell by typical numbers. NW Ventilators did fall into the teens though for the first time in 8 months.

13 September last time fewer were on ventilators in NW and 6 September last time fewer patients. A little ahead of the UK average time table slipping backwards into last Summer.


UK total:




Patients down to 1159 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 089 in 109 days) :- lowest since 18 September

Ventilators down to 159 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3918 in 103 days) : lowest since 19 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

96 Covid admissions following 76, 98, 92, 68, 82, 81, 89, in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England under 100 now every day but there is a small wk to wk rise today.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 3 to 973 v 1161 last week :- lowest since 16 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 363 in 109 days)

Ventilators: UP 1 to 145 v 170 last week :- lowest since 20 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3591 in 103 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 13 to 70 v 121 // stays at 6 v 10

London down 11 to 272 v 315 // UP 1 to 62 v 71

Midlands down 9 to 186 v 218 // down 1 to 27 v 30

NE & Yorks UP 4 to 160 v 170// down 3 to 20 v 20

North West UP 11 to 177 v 188 // down 1 to 19 v 25

South East UP 14 to 76 v 105 // UP 5 to 8 v 11

South West UP 1 to 32 v 44 // stays at 3 v 3
 
Healdplace said:
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 124 / 63 / UP 61 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 43 / 34 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.6%

Trafford 37 / 45 / DOWN 8 Testing positive 7.0 %

Manchester 35 / 35 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.7%

Salford 31 / 42 / DOWN 11 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 28 / 38 DOWN 10 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 27 / 22 / UP 5 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 26 / 21 / UP 5 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 22 / 23 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.1%

Tameside 21 / 29 DOWN 8 Testing positive 8.2%


Sadly the first time in Greater Manchester that you could say Bolton are in a league of their own. That gulf is what awaits the other boroughs if we let this variant spread. Why I was so frustrated that nobody seemed to be noticing the threat out there as it built up to this and these daily tables made it obvious days ago.
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hows my way down here ?

kent/Dartford/Medway going
 
Healdplace said:
HOSPITAL DATA

UK total:

Patients down to 1159 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 089 in 109 days) :- lowest since 18 September

ADMISSIONS:- 96 Covid admissions following 76, 98, 92, 68, 82, 81, 89, in the week before.
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The decline slows but importantly hasn't stalled.

At this stage most hospitals (including my own in Sheffield) aren't receiving ANY daily Covid admissions, and in parts of the country must be close to having ZERO inpatients.

I'd be interested to hear more from Simon Stevens (head of NHS England) on the challenges of returning NHS capacity back to pre-pandemic levels while the risk of Covid persists.

NHS services are far from back to normal; my parents' surgery is months off, and getting a face-to-face GP appointment takes weeks. Older people may be terrified of entering hospitals for routine treatment.
 
unicorn said:
The decline slows but importantly hasn't stalled.

At this stage most hospitals (including my own in Sheffield) aren't receiving ANY daily Covid admissions, and in parts of the country must be close to having ZERO inpatients.

I'd be interested to hear more from Simon Stevens (head of NHS England) on the challenges of returning NHS capacity back to pre-pandemic levels while the risk of Covid persists.

NHS services are far from back to normal; my parents' surgery is months off, and getting a face-to-face GP appointment takes weeks. Older people may be terrified of entering hospitals for routine treatment.
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On your last point I'm getting quite concerned. My GP Surgery is still in a state of early lockdown functioning. It's weird, no seats in the surgery, no appointments with Doctors, no walk ins for emergencies. I attended last week to collect a heart monitor to self administer as I have heart arrhythmia and in Feb 2020 my Doctor said the medication I was on is not suitable at my age and I needed to be reassessed. I had a very stressful week (mostly due to my Dad who I look after and had post operative delirium after an eye operation) and my heart rhythm and blood pressure were all over the place, no idea what happens next as they are going to "write" to me. I'm a potential heart attack waiting to happen, how I got through the PSG game I'll never know!
 
Had my second AZ jab Thursday, no effects whatsoever even though the first one had left me lethargic and sleepy with a crashing headache and sore arm for a day or so, I'd had Covid late Oct so not sure if that had any effect.
 
hammocity said:
On your last point I'm getting quite concerned. My GP Surgery is still in a state of early lockdown functioning. It's weird, no seats in the surgery, no appointments with Doctors, no walk ins for emergencies. I attended last week to collect a heart monitor to self administer as I have heart arrhythmia and in Feb 2020 my Doctor said the medication I was on is not suitable at my age and I needed to be reassessed. I had a very stressful week (mostly due to my Dad who I look after and had post operative delirium after an eye operation) and my heart rhythm and blood pressure were all over the place, no idea what happens next as they are going to "write" to me. I'm a potential heart attack waiting to happen, how I got through the PSG game I'll never know!
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Really sorry to hear that mate, you can do without all that stress.

Access to GP services has been patchy for years as the number of medical students opting for GP careers reduced and many GPs took early retirement. My parents live near Cambridge, well-served by GP services, and they've really struggled with appointments by phone and the sense that the surgery is a no-go area.
 
unicorn said:
Really sorry to hear that mate, you can do without all that stress.

Access to GP services has been patchy for years as the number of medical students opting for GP careers reduced and many GPs took early retirement. My parents live near Cambridge, well-served by GP services, and they've really struggled with appointments by phone and the sense that the surgery is a no-go area.
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Cheers, to prove your point one of the two permanent Doctors at my surgery is retiring this year, I'm guessing he's mid 50's. He has "other" medical income including being the Doctor in an ambulance that follows the racehorses around Haydock Park. The quacks is in a deprived area, they struggle to get Locum Doctors. I fear it will get worse and there's people at that surgery that really do need a lot of help.
 
unicorn said:
Really sorry to hear that mate, you can do without all that stress.

Access to GP services has been patchy for years as the number of medical students opting for GP careers reduced and many GPs took early retirement. My parents live near Cambridge, well-served by GP services, and they've really struggled with appointments by phone and the sense that the surgery is a no-go area.
Click to expand...
GPs have been trying to move to more on-line and telephone consultations for years, backed by Government / NHS policy. That suits some GPs but others feel like they are being criticised for doing what they were instructed to do. There should be a mixture of both and hopefully the face to face consultations will rise substantially from June with full reopening of society
 
hammocity said:
Cheers, to prove your point one of the two permanent Doctors at my surgery is retiring this year, I'm guessing he's mid 50's. He has "other" medical income including being the Doctor in an ambulance that follows the racehorses around Haydock Park. The quacks is in a deprived area, they struggle to get Locum Doctors. I fear it will get worse and there's people at that surgery that really do need a lot of help.
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There were pension advantages for GPs retiring early a few years back. I don’t know if that is still the case.
 
hammocity said:
On your last point I'm getting quite concerned. My GP Surgery is still in a state of early lockdown functioning. It's weird, no seats in the surgery, no appointments with Doctors, no walk ins for emergencies. I attended last week to collect a heart monitor to self administer as I have heart arrhythmia and in Feb 2020 my Doctor said the medication I was on is not suitable at my age and I needed to be reassessed. I had a very stressful week (mostly due to my Dad who I look after and had post operative delirium after an eye operation) and my heart rhythm and blood pressure were all over the place, no idea what happens next as they are going to "write" to me. I'm a potential heart attack waiting to happen, how I got through the PSG game I'll never know!
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I agree. My partner, 25 years in the NHS, has just applied for a new job In Trafford. The job is assessing and advising new clients who have been referred to the hospital based drug and alcohol team. Starting September. They assumed the service would be face to face. But no. It’s working from home, phoning the clients up. That’s not a service. Why is there an assumption they won’t be seeing clients/patients in September.
 
crooky said:
Good news on under 40s having the choice of vaccines.

I wasn't convinced the AZ one was worth the hassle being in my early 30s. Until you hardy bunch convinced me it was still probably best to 'risk' it. Because when Covid picks up again the balance of risk is definitely higher with getting Covid.

I wonder what the alternative will be though. If it's anything but Pfizer then you potentially risk some other issue on a vaccine that hasn't been used for long enough for them to spot any issues with all age groups.
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Bear in mind Pfizer were also investigating claims of heart inflammation. I think all vaccines carry a very very small risk, but not as great a risk as Covid.
 
hammocity said:
Cheers, to prove your point one of the two permanent Doctors at my surgery is retiring this year, I'm guessing he's mid 50's. He has "other" medical income including being the Doctor in an ambulance that follows the racehorses around Haydock Park. The quacks is in a deprived area, they struggle to get Locum Doctors. I fear it will get worse and there's people at that surgery that really do need a lot of help.
Click to expand...

Same in my practice in Altrincham. I was called by the receptionist after a blood test to say my doctor needed to make a telephonic appointment to talk to me about it. When I said my doctor's name she told me he had left the practice over a year ago! Nobody had informed me or told me which doctor was now assigned to me which I found incredible.

He was probably in his mid fifties and had retired early and was doing some locum work. A lot seem to do little earners on the side once they retire. I used to have to have an ENG1 medical every two years when I worked on the ships. The doctor who did it was retired and did them from his house in Disley. This medical certificate incorporated airline staff, rig workers etcetera so I guess it was a nice little earner. He was very thorough and after one medical he was very impressed with my fitness for my age and told me I had reached the level for a jumbo jet pilot and their criteria was very stringent. I told him I was very happy to hear that, there was one small problem though I couldn't fly a bloody jumbo jet lol.
 
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