Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Manchester1894]

PHE statement on Bolton / Indian variant(s).

Seems to me that it's likely that this variant is more contagious still than the Kent variant judging by increase in numbers in Bolton. The good news though is that there doesn't seem to be any suggestion of vaccine evasion...so get your vaccine when its offered and you'll be OK. That's the assumption I am operating on anyway.

Bolton has been right at the very centre of every spike in the North West thoughout hasn't it??

April last year!

 

[twosips]

Wonderful thread on the new Indian variant. Would recommend reading the whole thing.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Wonderful thread on the new Indian variant. Would recommend reading the whole thing.

JBM's work throughout COVID has been absolutely outstanding.

 

[unicorn]

Wonderful thread on the new Indian variant. Would recommend reading the whole thing.

Excellent analysis, includes key line "Because overall UK case numbers are much lower today than they were last November, the same % of cases is a smaller number."

 

[Healdplace]

15 all settings deaths

2490 cases - down 123 on yesterday - was 2381 last week & 2678 wk before

1, 051 , 558 pillar 1 & 2 tests about 3000 or so more than last week

 

[Healdplace]

Unfortunately another rise in the North West - of only 9 day to day happily - despite the fall in UK numbers and a large fall for Yorkshire. But it is the fourth successive rise from 224 four days ago.

So for the first time in a while the NW is the most infected region in the UK today

380 cases v 350 for Yorkshire and 252 for London.

East Midlands on 270 is the third highest in England now. Its biggest numbers in about a month.

 

[unicorn]

Case numbers hardly change day to day, week to week, since the 12 April reopening.

Meanwhile hospital admissions continue to reduce, which is great.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Case numbers hardly change day to day, week to week, since the 12 April reopening.

Meanwhile hospital admissions continue to reduce, which is great.

Yep, all contributing to providing more time for the vaccine programme to keep winning the race hopefully!

 

[Healdplace]

Bolton has leapt up by another jump sadly. Up 46 week to week. The fourth successive day the week to week rise has increased. 75 cases there today.

Here is the run of numbers in past 2 weeks:-

15 - 14 - 21 - 19 - 26 - 35 - 26 - 25 - 29 - 32 - 41 - 45 - 44 - 57 - 61 - 75.

 

[Healdplace]

Bolton is of course the big problem in GM right now and the reason it is over 200 (at 208) for the first time in a month.

Rochdale is starting to show signs of a problem too. Up on its highest numbers in a while on 22 today - having risen in past days:- 9 - 10 - 18 - 22.

Oldham has also risen across the same four days: - 6 - 9 - 12 - 17 today.

Hope this is not the start of the variant spreading across the county.

Bury and Stockport had better days Bury on just 4 and Stockport with its third straight fall to just 8.

Manchester was up a little to 39 but not yet showing any signs of a Bolton effect.

Liverpool was also up quite a bit today by its recent low standards.

Number here are not disastrous anywhere. Though Bolton's daily Pop Score rise - up to 26 today - tells its own story when compared with the numbers from the other Boroughs Pop Score rises tpday:

Bury by 2 (best today). Manchester 7, Oldham 7, Rochdale 10 (only other place but Bolton in double figures in some time), Salford 4, Stockport 2 (best today), Tameside 4, Trafford 5 and Wigan 3.

So you can easily see how Bolton's 26 blows these out of the water.

Pop Scores - to remind - are cases as per 100,000 POPulation living in the area - so allowing direct comparison of how good or bad the daily cases are for any location. As obviously 10 cases in a city the size of Manchester is very different from 10 in a small rural area with a fraction of the population.

 

[Franny's toilet roll]

I know and have not said otherwise. See my post above.

My comment was about the briefing this morning NOT the chart posted that I never refered to as I was well aware of why it was misleading.

I have obviously upset people today - for reasons I still do not understand.

So I am taking time off now as I have work I need to get on with anyway.

PHE statement on Bolton / Indian variant(s).

Seems to me that it's likely that this variant is more contagious still than the Kent variant judging by increase in numbers in Bolton. The good news though is that there doesn't seem to be any suggestion of vaccine evasion...so get your vaccine when its offered and you'll be OK. That's the assumption I am operating on anyway.

If you haven't been offered a vaccine yet, there are a significant number of centres offering vaccines at the end of the day to any age group. Staff would rather do this than throw the vaccines away.

 

[Healdplace]

Hospital data is also not very encouraging for a Friday when numbers usually fall.

Last week in England they did by 74, week before by 45 week before by 41.

Today they fell only by 3 from yesterday to 973.

Reason being that several areas added patients today.

North West was one - with patients numbers rising from 166 yesterday to 177 today. This was worse than Yorkshire which rose from 156 to 160 but slightly better than the South East that rose from 62 to 76.

Ventilators also went up today - admittedly by just 1. Last week it fell by 8, Wee before by 16.

Small numbers but this has been the most concerning Friday in the hospital data in the past few months.

Hopefully, these patients will only be short stay and numbers will start to go down next week.

But it will be Monday before we get more data now.

 

[Healdplace]

If you haven't been offered a vaccine yet, there are a significant number of centres offering vaccines at the end of the day to any age group. Staff would rather do this than throw the vaccines away.

Yes - I agree - they do this.

In fact I got my second jab 10 days or so ago in exactly that way as I posted in here - when I was called late in the day to ask if I wanted it if I could get there in minutes. They knew I was due soon anyway and lived only a short walk from the clinic and they had had people say no that day so did not want to waste the stock supplied.

It has been happening for some time and I know several people who got their jabs early by calling on spec. Even before their age range was due. But I think they tried to get someone from the right age group being covered at that point first.

But quite rightly would let younger people have it if not rather than waste.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Turkey added to the red list when cases have been in rapid decline for a while. Why in the UK do we always act as if we're 2 weeks behind everything which is actually taking place?

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Yipppeeee NZ on the green list. At last...we will be able to - stay at home as that have a closed border :(

 

[BlueAnorak]

Due to the generally low number of cases nationally, I am beginning to wonder wonder whether we should switch strategies and go for area vaccination of younger age groups around New Varriant hot spots?
Your thoughts on this would be appreciated.

 

[shemnel]

This is cases by test type in England only, date of specimen (up to May 2nd).
Plus the rolling 7 day average of cases by authority in the North West, by specimen date.

Have a good weekend everyone, have some down time.

 

[Franny's toilet roll]

I think the Indian variant has been here for months in all probability, and just as likely to be brought home by British nationals or someone on business than some coming via Turkey.

Yes we still have some leaky airports, im not denying that, but i will say that by the time you notice a variant (as we did quite some time ago), it's already been here for a bit. And you'll never ever stop domestic spread until it's vaccinated. Cases are becoming more and more meaningless by the day. It's how the vaccines stand up to it now.

I would agree that variants are in circulation some time before they become detected but i don't think its a reason not to tighten up checks quarantine arrangements on people coming into the country. Government gave too much notice over Indian restrictions and allowing people to stop off in Turkey or another country en route so they can then quarantine at home can't be sensible. Increase in cases in Bolton, Darwen, Oldham, Rochdale, i don't think is a coincidence. Lets hope the vaccines do the job

 

[Healdplace]

I am beginning to wonder wonder whether we should switch strategies and go for area vaccination of younger age groups around New Varriant hot spots?

I think that is what they were musing around in that press conference this morning I was talking about when many thought I was referring to the low % of younger people - obviously - not having been vaccinated as they were not yet due. They do seem to have shifted thinking and have also seen how well Wales seem to be doing with cases now they are actually offering it to teenagers and have been in some parts all this week. Because they are that far into the programme in Wales and lead the statistics. It would make some sense.

Most cases now are coming from younger people and the place that is down to that level of vaccinating is seeing very low case numbers. That N Ireland data shows 70% under 40 8% over 60 and 22% 40 - 59. So it is clear where the cases are now emerging the most


It looks like a tempting change of tack to consider. Though in reality we are not far off when they would be down to those age ranges anyway.

 

[Franny's toilet roll]

we haven't been bloody offered it.

I think the clinical psychologists reporting on vaccine hesitancy might take that into account, could be wrong . I heard they survey whole swathes of people to test attitude to vaccines - who would have thought that ? Fucking clever bastards these scientists. Plenty of centres offering vaccines at the end of shift to save binning them