Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ancoats]

It will be 5 in a year for me and many others I suspect as I will be having my flu jab as this year that will be a real problem if we are all acting more nornally this winter. The precautions we took for Covid all but eliminated flu but it will be back with aveangance you can be sure.

i fear the flu jab had it a couple of times and it made me worst than getting the flu in the first place
all theses jabs can not be good in the long run ? just like antibiotics resistance the viruses are very cleaver in beating them ? covid-19 should be the one virus that will change medication every year because of the mutation it can do

let hope that covid-19 can be beaten and lesson be learnt. science technology is in a far better shape than 10 years ago. the fast speed in getting a vaccine out sends good signals. but its not a cure and we will have to learn to live with covid-19 for years to come

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP

shows an even bigger rise tpday that any point in months.

4108 cases predicted - another big rise of 551 in the day

Symptomatic cases to - 53, 432 - from 50, 185 - up 3247. Biggest daily rise in ages .

We were at around 15,000 a month ago doing down.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)

As a region now North West escalated markedy and is the only part of the UK in the dark red worst of all infected rating.

The map is like a sea of pink and red. Spread a lot since yesterday. Now includes large parts of Cheshire that were not there yesterday. The southern part of the Wirral over the border into Wrexham. Chester. Cheshire West. Cheshire East. All now up over 1000 into watch zones.

Also now a continuous run from Stoke on Trent to Preston around 40 miles wide where EVERY area is on the pink watch list.

South Ribble is the worst of all at 643 / 5868

Much of GM now covered too:



BURY though is down a lot to 1100 / 5831 from 1590 / 8430 . Which is good.

BOLTON also up in the dark red zone with it on 1381 / 4874 falls too from 1488 / 525 yesterday.

Seems if GM is improving the rest of the NW is spreading.

Much as last nights GM data suggested.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP - OTHER NUMBERS


(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)



TRAFFORD 1312 / 5603 V 235 / 1004 - Rises into the first pink watch zone yesterday and today has shot up by miles into the dark pink zone. HIgher that Bolton now and just below Bury.


MANCHESTER 972 / 1782 V 956 / 1754 - happily just a smal rise.

WIGAN 690 / 2130 V 613 / 1892 - also up a tier with another rise




Sadly GM now has half its 10 boroughs in the watch zone. The most yet.




Others in GM:-


OLDHAM 55 / 235 V 72 / 307 - another small fall here.

ROCHDALE 128 / 584 V 122 / 559 edging up again .

SALFORD 88 / 346 V 105 / 414 a small fall

TAMESIDE 132 / 589 - back on data at modest rise

STOCKPORT 183 / 634 V 174 / 601 - a small rise here again. Not yet up to worrying numbers but closest to doing so of the currently 'safe' boroughs.

 

[SWP's back]

Is it not pretty much confirmed it was man made in a lab now?

No it’s not confirmed as anything and that scouse twat @Armaan can still fuck off liking every post similar to this.

 

[SWP's back]

all theses jabs can not be good in the long run ?

In your obviously learned opinion, can you tell me why.

 

[True_Blue69]

No it’s not confirmed as anything and that scouse twat @Armaan can still fuck off liking every post similar to this.

Made me laugh that. I read this morning that it was all but confirmed it leaked from a lab but sounds like it was wrong. I was half cut in Porto to be fair. Glad you’re more clued up on this than the British spies suggesting this though pal.

 

[Marvin]

i have some fears about the boost jab ? can it be to much having 3 jabs in a short space of time ?
hearing good stories about the one jab vaccine maybe that is the way forward

We need our immunity to be tailored to the latest strains. I'd rather get that from a vaccine than Covid.

I listened to the Vaccines minister this morning and he mentioned a Autumn booster. he didn't say it would be for all but I am hoping it's tailored to the new variants so that there is something in place to provide protection for us all if we need it.

We're so fortunate to have vaccines. If we didn't have one, then anyone over 45 would be dicing with an early death, or would have to go through a serious illness. Remember all the comments from Bluemooners on here who got it.

 

[ancoats]

We need our immunity to be tailored to the latest strains. I'd rather get that from a vaccine than Covid.

I listened to the Vaccines minister this morning and he mentioned a Autumn booster. he didn't say it would be for all but I am hoping it's tailored to the new variants so that there is something in place to provide protection for us all if we need it.

We're so fortunate to have vaccines. If we didn't have one, then anyone over 45 would be dicing with an early death, or would have to go through a serious illness. Remember all the comments from Bluemooners on here who got it.

but the more we help with covid 19 vaccines jabs the lesser the body defences fight for themselves
at the moment your right no other way than to take them (vaccines) like you said over 45 and dancing with all sorts of illnesses and the body immune system and antibodies break down then what choices do you have

 

[Healdplace]

Gov UK data delayed to unknown time (already nearly 2 hours) due to Welsh vaccine data issues

 

[ancoats]

In your obviously learned opinion, can you tell me why.

am not doctor or any sort of genius ? but i know enough about the body immune system and antibodies to say any sort of vaccine or medicine long term can be a problem later on in life

being a asthmatic all my life and on all sorts of medication for my asthma. i can tall you the long term damage it as done to me and my eyes and body is crazy. detached retina. bleeding blood vessels in the eyes. cataract in my 40s and now glaucoma. add high blood pressure in the eyes. laser eye surgery. all because of the asthma ventilator machine over the years

 

[SWP's back]

am not doctor or any sort of genius ? but i know enough about the body immune system and antibodies to say any sort of vaccine or medicine long term can be a problem later on in life

being a asthmatic all my life and on all sorts of medication for my asthma. i can tall you the long term damage it as done to me and my eyes and body is crazy. detached retina. bleeding blood vessels in the eyes. cataract in my 40s and now glaucoma. add high blood pressure in the eyes. laser eye surgery. all because of the asthma ventilator machine over the years

I’m sorry mate but vaccinations and asthma steroids are completely different things.

 

[Healdplace]

3240 cases and 6 deaths

Week to week jump of 1005 from 2235. Wk before was 1926 and 1770 week before that.

Not far off 50% jump in past 7 days.

 

[Marvin]

but the more we help with covid 19 vaccines jabs the lesser the body defences fight for themselves
at the moment your right no other way than to take them (vaccines) like you said over 45 and dancing with all sorts of illnesses and the body immune system and antibodies break down then what choices do you have

I think of it as strengthening the human body's immune system, not weakening it. And we do it without getting ill.

 

[splinter]

3240 cases and 6 deaths

Week to week jump of 1005 from 2235. Wk before was 1926 and 1770 week before that.

Not far off 50% jump in past 7 days.

Was this to be expected with opening up..lets hope the deaths and hospital admissions stay low

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I think of it as strengthening the human body's immune system, not weakening it. And we do it without getting ill.

Exactly.

The alternative is literally Covid itself and the risk of serious long term or even immediate complications from the virus.

There isn't a vaccination campaign ongoing just for the sake of it. It's because the alternative is far worse.

 

[Healdplace]

Sorry to make your weekends worse but some pretty bad numbers for Greater Manchester and the North West today.

Cases in NW 935 - up 154 on yesterday despite UK cases falling. And 441 up on last week.More than doubled.

This is three times the next worst regions - London (355) and Yorkshire (325)

GM is also continuing its trend. In total 532 - up 140 on yesterday - so nearly all of todays NW rise.

That is 223 up on last Sunday about half the NW week to week rise so not quite as bad. More or less par.


Bolton falling. ON 113 cases today - down 14 on yesterday and 38 on last Sunday.

That is good. What is less so is that EVERY other GM borough is up on yesterday despite the UK cases fall today - and there are some big numbers.

Stockport probably the worst as it is today exacty 7 times what it had last week - 8 to 56. Highest here in months. A 48 week to week rise puts it almost instantly from one of the GM best to one of the worst trajectory.

SAlford on 59 is higher but up from 19 so not quite so much of a bump up - though a lot.

Bury too has another giant leap from 9 to 49.

Nobody does well. The lowest scores are 24 for Oldham (up 14) and same for Tameside - six times where it was last Sunday.

Trafford also up four times from 9 to 36.

Wigan on 41 only doubles


As I have said we need Bolton to come down and that is happening. We now need these escalating other boroughs to keep rises in check as these are going the other way and increasing.


IF they meet in the middle sub 100 cases and they all then start falling we are OK.

Right now there is a risk some GM boroughs could be above Bolton this time next week.

And that would not be.

Manchester (because of sheer size - it was on 97 today - easily the closest to Bolton in weeks - just 16 - which is actually pretty good news)

And Stockport and Salford as big boroughs now clocking middke big numbers that could get up to 100+ quickly.

Bury is pro rata the worst. Its Pop Score rose today by 25. Just 3 weeks ago it rose by only 1. A 25 x times rise.

Bolton was the only higher one today at 39 but that is well down on where it was - 84 just 4 days ago.

But Salford up 23, Stockport up 19 are the highest daily rises in some weeks with Manchester up 18. THese could overtake Bolton soon.


Nobody did well today. Not a single boroigh up by single figure Pop Score numbers fpr the first time since mid Winter.

But if we are on top of this we hopefully can stem the rise.

 

[Healdplace]

Was this to be expected with opening up..lets hope the deaths and hospital admissions stay low

Yes cases were bound to rise even without the Indian variant. Though that is the reason the increases are not uniform around the UK.

Where the variant is taking over cases are going up fast. The NW far and away the worst.

Yes, as I have said many times in here lately cases not really the issue if they do not go seriously upwards. 3000/4000 in the circumstances not unexpected. 30,000 / 40,000 would be.

Hospital data IS the key again as I say often and post. Though all countries have in past weeks reduced the flow of that data to periods where - like this long weekend - we get nothing for 4 days - so hard to know for sure.

What we do have shows admissions, patient numbers staying in and ventilators have all been rising in the NW Not yet catastrophically because most catching it are still yoing and so even unvaccinated less likely to get very sick.

We can only watch these numbers as they lag the cases by a few days and ICU, Ventilator and Death number by a week or two of that.

So the big rise in the past week in the NW will impact the hospital data in coming days.

There is almost no question NW will be well ahead of the rest of the UK next week and likely will see the most deaths too in a week or two - just by weight of numbers.

But to what extent that happens is the key.

If the rise is small it means things are still under control and the variant is not escaping the vaccines in those who have been jabs as they were at highest risk.

Lets hope that is where this goes.

But it may be a few weeks before we know for sure how much the link between cases and hospital numbers is rising. There will be some but the smaller the better.

 

[splinter]

Yes cases were bound to rise even without the Indian variant. Though that is the reason the increases are not uniform around the UK.

Where the variant is taking over cases are going up fast. The NW far and away the worst.

Yes, as I have said many times in here lately cases not really the issue if they do not go seriously upwards. 3000/4000 in the circumstances not unexpected. 30,000 / 40,000 would be.

Hospital data IS the key again as I say often and post. Though all countries have in past weeks reduced the flow of that data to periods where - like this long weekend - we get nothing for 4 days - so hard to know for sure.

What we do have shows admissions, patient numbers staying in and ventilators have all been rising in the NW Not yet catastrophically because most catching it are still yoing and so even unvaccinated less likely to get very sick.

We can only watch these numbers as they lag the cases by a few days and ICU, Ventilator and Death number by a week or two of that.

So the big rise in the past week in the NW will impact the hospital data in coming days.

There is almost no question NW will be well ahead of the rest of the UK next week and likely will see the most deaths too in a week or two - just by weight of numbers.

But to what extent that happens is the key.

If the rise is small it means things are still under control and the variant is not escaping the vaccines in those who have been jabs as they were at highest risk.

Lets hope that is where this goes.

But it may be a few weeks before we know for sure how much the link between cases and hospital numbers is rising. There will be some but the smaller the better.

All eyes on the NW in the coming weeks..21st June opening on a knife edge. Watch and wait, jab jab jab..

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.




Bolton 365 / 456 / DOWN 91 Testing positive 10.4%

Bury 121 / 53 / UP 68 Testing positive 9.3%

Salford 113 / 31 / UP 82 Testing positive 9.2%

Manchester 107/ 59 / UP 48 Testing positive 9.9%

Rochdale 93 / 40 / UP 53 Testing positive 9.8 %

Wigan 80 / 40 / UP 40 Testing positive 9.1%

Stockport 76 / 14 / UP 62 Testing positive 7.3%

Oldham 68 / 28 / UP 40 Testing positive 9.9%

Trafford 68 / 46 / UP 22 Testing positive 7.2 %

Tameside 50 / 18 UP 32 Testing positive 8.3



As you can see things are squeezing up as Bolton falls again and its week to week fall increases to 91.

Bury just keeps climbing and the gap to Bolton narrowing.

Salford had the biggest rise today and became the fourth borough to top 100 when nobody was 3 weeks ago and only Bolton until a few days ago. Distinctly possible every one of the ten will be by next week unfortunately.

Stockport's rise also starting to look a little concerning. From best in GM 14 to 76 and rising 62 in a week.

But there is really nobody doing anything other than rising apart from Bolton.

That is the problem.

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Just been looking at your figures for GM for the last five days, although they are rising there doesn't appear to be any consistency. Starting at Wednesday the figures are 395, 604, 751, 392, 532 the last three days have been a roller coaster. It will be interesting to see how it pans out over the next few days.