Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
ZOE APP

3557 cases predicted - up 331 - another big rise predicted.

Symptomatic cases to - 50, 185 from 47, 526 - up 2659. Slightly down on yesterday. But only slightly.

We were at around 15,000 a month ago doing down.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)

TAMESIDE error seems to have been found, fixed and no longer in red watch zone


BURY now officially the worst borough in England up to 1590 / 8430 FROM 1167 / 6190 yesterday. Big rise.

BOLTON also up in the dark red zone with it on 1488 / 5251 FROM 1237 / 4365 yesterday.
 
Healdplace said:
ZOE APP

3557 cases predicted - up 331 - another big rise predicted.

Symptomatic cases to - 50, 185 from 47, 526 - up 2659. Slightly down on yesterday. But only slightly.

We were at around 15,000 a month ago doing down.


NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)

TAMESIDE error seems to have been found, fixed and no longer in red watch zone


BURY now officially the worst borough in England up to 1590 / 8430 FROM 1167 / 6190 yesterday. Big rise.

BOLTON also up in the dark red zone with it on 1488 / 5251 FROM 1237 / 4365 yesterday.
Click to expand...
Go Bury!
 
ZOE APP - OTHER NUMBERS


(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


MANCHESTER 956 / 1754 V 2028 / 3720 - happily quite a big fall down ino the lower tier.

WIGAN 613 / 1892 V 148 / 457 - joins the pink watch tier after a 4 x rise on the day. Worst in GM.

TRAFFORD 235 / 1004 V 155 / 663 - Rises into the first pink watch zone unfortunately.

Sadly GM now has half its 10 boroughs in the watch zone. The most yet.

And Stockport seem close to joining them and Rochdale and Salford not far behind.

Next few days will be crucial.


Others in GM:-


OLDHAM 72 / 307 V 60 / 258 - another small rise here.

ROCHDALE 122 / 559 V 101 / 463 edging up again and sanswiced between Kirklees and Rossendale.

SALFORD 105 / 414 V 71 / 283 a rise again.

STOCKPORT 174 / 601 V 105 / 363 - a big rise here and starting to look concerning as it was where Trafford was yesterday and today Trafford go on the Zoe watch list by topping 1000.




Every borough bar Manchester on an upward track. And they are already well up.
 
splinter said:
If the death rate remains low..we're good right..
Click to expand...
That and hospitalisations - yes.

If 10 out of 500 older people at risk and get covid that is maybe 3 who might be in hospital

If 700 out of 750 are at less risk but even one in ten go into hospital that is still 70.

On a national level 70 a day v 3 a day going into hospital can become a problem if case numbers rocket as we have seen them double in a couple of weeks.

4000 today is not really a problem. 10,000 in fortnight when decisions are made will be arguable.

25,000 a day by the time we are supposed to be easing all restrictions will see arguments on delaying I suspect.

50,000 or more by mid JUne and I think we will see a delay.

Very rough numbers not remotely meant to be accurate.

But any of those scenarios could play out in coming weeks. Or we might still be where we are or even start falling again.

As we are being told - but it is really true - we just have to watch carefully what happens.
 
Big fall in NW numbers today - thoigh still the highest by some margin. Easily the biggest drop.

From 1251 to 781 - a fall of 470 on the day.

This is v 720 last Saturday - so only up 61 week to week.

Bolton down by 114 in the day to 127 - which is a fall of 93 from 220 last Saturday.

That looks quite hopeful.
 
It looks to me like vaccination has broken the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths.
If that is the case, we need to let it rip at the end of June I think. Not good for countries who want to let our tourists in though who are 6-8 weeks behind with vaccinations.
 
The GM good news was in some ways mostly thanks to the very big drop in Bolton & Manchester. And it was not shared equally in other GM boroughs. But most places are down on yesterday. Some are still up big week to week despite the overall wk to week fall.

And those are the ones that need watching right now.

Stockport, Salford and Rochdale probably had the least good day in that regard.



Bolton down 114 on day and 93 on week to 127

Bury down 12 on day but up 13 on week to 33

Manchester down 95 on day (huge fall here) and 9 on week to 59.

Oldham UP 3 on the day (only rise) and yet down 1 on week to 21

Rochdale down 16 on day but up 13 on week to 27

Salford down 46 on day but up 19 on week to 31

Stockport down 22 on day but up 17 on week to 31

Tameside down 13 on day but up 5 on week to 17

Trafford down 22 on day AND 5 on week to 15 - BEST PERFORMER OF THE DAY (Yet Zoe now has here on watch!)

Wigan down 22 on day but exactly the same a last week on 31.
 
Last edited:
Healdplace said:
The GM good news was in some ways mostly thanks to the very big drop in Bolton. And it was not shared equally in other GM boroughs. But most places are down on yesterday. Some are still up big week to week despite the overall wk to week fall.

And those are the ones that need watching right now.

Stockport, Salford and Rochdale probably had the least good day in that regard.



Bolton down 114 on day and 93 on week to 127

Bury down 12 on day but up 13 on week to 33

Manchester down 95 on day (huge fall here) and 9 on week to 59.

Oldham UP 3 on the day (only rise) and yet down 1 on week to 21

Rochdale down 16 on day but up 13 on week to 27

Salford down 46 on day but up 19 on week to 31

Stockport down 22 on day but up 17 on week to 31

Tameside down 13 on day but up 5 on week to 17

Trafford down 22 on day AND 5 on week to 15 - BEST PERFORMER OF THE DAY (Yet Zoe now has here on watch!)

Wigan down 22 on day but exactly the same a last week on 31.
Click to expand...
My hope is that if Bolton can get on top of it, with all its inherent difficulties, anywhere can.
 
Healdplace said:
Big fall in NW numbers today - thoigh still the highest by some margin. Easily the biggest drop.

From 1251 to 781 - a fall of 470 on the day.

This is v 720 last Saturday - so only up 61 week to week.

Bolton down by 114 in the day to 127 - which is a fall of 93 from 220 last Saturday.

That looks quite hopeful.
Click to expand...
It’s mental. In all our covid times I’ve never known as many people in mine and family’s friendship and work groups to currently have the virus. That said, no one is ill.
 
Rammy Blue said:
It’s mental. In all our covid times I’ve never known as many people in mine and family’s friendship and work groups to currently have the virus. That said, no one is ill.
Click to expand...
That appears to be what the vaccine has done - turned Covid from a major killer to an easy to spread disease that is largely just a moderate illness at worst.

We all would have taken that even 4 months ago when we were having 65,000 cases and 1000 deaths on one day and months away from any significant numbers vaccinated and only hope that they would work in the real world.

3000 odd and 7 deaths and almost a month into this variant spread shows a huge difference in scale of concern.

The difference with India where vaccinations were much less advanced when it spread shows what could have happened here had this hit a couple of months earlier.

Not out of the woods yet by any means but it is starting to look as if we might have just about sneaked a win near the end.
 
Healdplace said:
That appears to be what the vaccine has done - turned Covid from a major killer to an easy to spread disease that is largely just a moderate illness at worst.

We all would have taken that even 4 months ago when we were having 65,000 cases and 1000 deaths on one day and months away from any significant numbers vaccinated and only hope that they would work in the real world.

3000 odd and 7 deaths and almost a month into this variant spread shows a huge difference in scale of concern.
Click to expand...
Fingers crossed, and amen to that.
 
Healdplace said:
That appears to be what the vaccine has done - turned Covid from a major killer to an easy to spread disease that is largely just a moderate illness at worst.

We all would have taken that even 4 months ago when we were having 65,000 cases and 1000 deaths on one day and months away from any significant numbers vaccinated and only hope that they would work in the real world.

3000 odd and 7 deaths and almost a month into this variant spread shows a huge difference in scale of concern.

The difference with India where vaccinations were much less advanced when it spread shows what could have happened here had this hit a couple of months earlier.

Not out of the woods yet by any means but it is starting to look as if we might have just about sneaked a win near the end.
Click to expand...
I'll drink to that
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.




Bolton 379 / 454 / DOWN 75 Testing positive 10.4%

Manchester 100/ 53 / UP 47 Testing positive 9.9%

Bury 100 / 55 / UP 45 Testing positive 9.3%

Salford 97 / 27 / UP 70 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 86 / 37 / UP 49 Testing positive 9.8 %

Wigan 74 / 39 / UP 35 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 62 / 26 / UP 36 Testing positive 9.9%

Stockport 60 / 14 / UP 46 Testing positive 7.3%

Trafford 57 / 47 / UP 10 Testing positive 7.2 %

Tameside 41 / 17 UP 24 Testing positive 8.3


Bolton falls again and now down big week to week. So on track

Every other borough is rising now often by a lot.

Manchester fell to exactly 100 and Bury still climbing steeply joined it there. Salford looks like being next to do so after some big numbers last few days.

Trafford and Tameside the only two really doing OK relatively - though both up still. Stockport is heading up the table and needs some better days.

Nothing disastrous as yet.
 
Healdplace said:
That appears to be what the vaccine has done - turned Covid from a major killer to an easy to spread disease that is largely just a moderate illness at worst.

We all would have taken that even 4 months ago when we were having 65,000 cases and 1000 deaths on one day and months away from any significant numbers vaccinated and only hope that they would work in the real world.

3000 odd and 7 deaths and almost a month into this variant spread shows a huge difference in scale of concern.

The difference with India where vaccinations were much less advanced when it spread shows what could have happened here had this hit a couple of months earlier.

Not out of the woods yet by any means but it is starting to look as if we might have just about sneaked a win near the end.
Click to expand...
Well said Heald Place, also think that is backed up by the hospitalisations being people who have not been vaccinated or have only just received their first dose. Even those who are in hospital who have had two doses are those with co-morbidities who may not be in the best of health anyway.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top