Coronavirus (2021) thread

[MillionMilesAway]

It looks like there are still 10,000 new cases a day - where are they coming from?
Presumably asymptomatic people (incl. kids) out and about?

 

[blueparrot]

I don't pay any attention to what the different papers are speculating/demanding/being briefed about the easing of Lockdown.

But is sub-1000 (assume in England) cases even possible ? Were we ever at that level in the Summer when we had testing ramped up and widely available ? That would equate to less than TEN cases a day in the Manchester LA area.

Think the lowest in July was about 550 / day

 

[paulchapo]

It looks like there are still 10,000 new cases a day - where are they coming from?
Presumably asymptomatic people (incl. kids) out and about?

I went for my weekly shop in Altrincham yesterday and it was like a bank holiday, loads of people about. Couples and families still shopping together, hardly anyone doing as requested and shopping alone. Gangs of teenagers all walking about. In my street kids from different families playing together and in and out of each others houses and grandparents and other people visiting. I am not surprised we aren't coming down and if anything rising, although Trafford was doing well I believe.

 

[trumpton]

Great news mate, and 100% behind you on the scare mongering by the idiots. My dads 77, but contracted Covid a few weeks back, he spent a night in hospital but is on the road to recovery now.

He’s been advised by the consultants to wait 28 days before getting the vaccine so I’ve booked him in for Day 29. He’s been reluctant because some of the rumours and wanted the “English one only”, had a chat and he’s sorted his head out now thankfully!

Same with my mother. Long story short but finally had her first jab at home this morning from the nurse from the GP surgery. She was in and out in 2 minutes. Second one booked for 4th May.

 

[shemnel]

I don't pay any attention to what the different papers are speculating/demanding/being briefed about the easing of Lockdown.

But is sub-1000 (assume in England) cases even possible ? Were we ever at that level in the Summer when we had testing ramped up and widely available ? That would equate to less than TEN cases a day in the Manchester LA area.

from about 13th June to 10th August last summer, the UK was sub 1000 cases each day. I think tests were about 100k to 200k per day.

depends what metric we want take forward; it was posited that case testing could diminish, save money and return some normality, and just monitor severe illness going into hospital. However i expect they'll want to keep testing levels up to look out for new strains?

 

[Healdplace]

522 England hospital deaths by age range:

20 - 39 (4) 0.8%

40 - 59 (45) 8.6%

60 - 79 (216) 41.4%

80 PLUS (257) 49.2%


Nothing notable changed here but that is now about 6 days on the run it has been sub 50% for the over 80s. Which is the only thing we really should expect to see change this early as sadly many of these deaths started the path to there when only two or three weeks of vaccinations had occurred - around Christmas/New Year.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

This guy is an Epidemiologist at Edinburgh University

 

[Mike N]

So, taking everything into account, does anyone think Easter will be when a substantial change in lockdown happens?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But is sub-1000 (assume in England) cases even possible ? Were we ever at that level in the Summer when we had testing ramped up and widely available ?

The whole UK was near or below 1000 for the whole of June, July and August last year.

Germany, with a higher population was considerably lower for quite a long time.

Without vaccines.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

312,669 first shots delivered in England yesterday so that isn't a noticeable drop for Tuesday figures recently. Very encouraging.