Coronavirus (2021) thread

[paulchapo]

The whole UK was near or below 1000 for the whole of June, July and August last year.

Germany, with a higher population was considerably lower for quite a long time.

Without vaccines.

View attachment 10702

Interesting regarding Germany. I wonder if it is their lifestyle, particular amongst the older population? Everytime I encounter them on holiday they always seem to be doing some sort of sporting activity, even if it is bombing along walking using those ski sticks.

 

[Eds]

This guy is an Epidemiologist at Edinburgh University

Would love to know how that is tracked. For instance if a family of four that sat on a beach all day then went to a restaurant before going home then tested positive three days later would they link that to the restaurant or what they did for three days at home? Really hard to understand how it is tracked. they are saying that around 30-40% of cases involve someone who has been to a supermarket seven days prior to testing positive but that doesn't mean that the supermarkets are a huge spreader does it? Looking how people are still behaving like twats I can see why people are still catching the virus.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data

6 deaths - was 4 last week

297 cases - was 336 last week

16.2 % positivity - was 16.3% last week

7 day rolling total 2047 - down from 2070 yesterday and 2596 last week

53 Care Home outbreaks - down from 64 yesterday and 96 last week.

434 patients - down 40 since yesterday and from 544 last week

45 ventilated - same as yesterday - down from 57 last week


Best figures of the day here so far.

The care home drop has been quite remarkable in the past 10 days.

The vaccine is the most likely reason why.

 

[mosssideblue]

The goalposts seem to be shifting on lifting restrictions all the time

first off it was once groups 1-4 are done

then it was 3 weeks after groups 1-9

now it’s variants and case numbers

Personally think it should be outdoor hospitality in April

indoor in May

then from July onwards I don’t think there’s justification for any restrictions really, everyone who wants one will have had 1 jab, the mosy at risk will have had 2

However and whenever they lift lockdown, we cannot afford to do it too soon and are forced backwards again

 

[unicorn]

That's the hardest question ever.

Assuming Schools start to re-open in March figure will no doubt go up as well.

Personally I think we need to be at the most in the mid single thousands infections per day....that however, may never/not happen until late April/May.

I'm lucky that financially living as we are in no hardship all I miss is playing Golf (spring to autumn), going to City and going for an afternoon beer. I'm fully aware that other people have mental issues, financial ones, family issues, a vested interest is hospitality etc. In essence it's the Govt job ideally taking advice from Scientists who should be looking at the position impartially.

I have similar priorities (my walks are just minus the hitting a ball around !).

While I think we're in a better place than I could have hoped for 3 months ago I have a real concern that re-opening schools on 8th March will produce a spike in cases amongst the unvaccinated 40-50 year olds.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting regarding Germany. I wonder if it is their lifestyle, particular amongst the older population? Everytime I encounter them on holiday they always seem to be doing some sort of sporting activity, even if it is bombing along walking using those ski sticks.

They had a very effective test/trace/isolate system, which much of their success is ascribed to. Once cases are low enough that every one can be chased down, restrictions can be eased without the epidemic growing.

But that graph should also give a bit of hope to everyone - if we could do that last summer without a vaccine we sure as hell should be able to with a vaccine.

The only real danger, I think, is relaxing too much too soon and setting off a 4th wave amongst the still vulnerable and unvaccinated.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Would love to know how that is tracked. For instance if a family of four that sat on a beach all day then went to a restaurant before going home then tested positive three days later would they link that to the restaurant or what they did for three days at home? Really hard to understand how it is tracked. they are saying that around 30-40% of cases involve someone who has been to a supermarket seven days prior to testing positive but that doesn't mean that the supermarkets are a huge spreader does it? Looking how people are still behaving like twats I can see why people are still catching the virus.

I am a bit sceptical myself but it was evident that photographers were exaggerating how busy the beaches were by using long angle pics. Reporters on the ground said that social was being complied with from what they could see.

There was a massive pile on against the people who went to the beaches but we don’t know their circumstances eg did they live in flats or have garden to take in the sun etc. the holier than thou crowd tried to compare beach goers with big house parties that carried far greater risks from Covid.

 

[paulchapo]

I have similar priorities (my walks are just minus the hitting a ball around !).

While I think we're in a better place than I could have hoped for 3 months ago I have a real concern that re-opening schools on 8th March will produce a spike in cases amongst the unvaccinated 40-50 year olds.

I have mixed feelings on the school situation. All the kids and teens here are mixing as normal out of school anyway.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland past 7 days cases by age

0 - 19 (228) 11.1%

20 - 39 (783) 38. 3%

40 - 59 (646) 31.6%

60 - 79 (292) 14.3%

80 PLUS (97) 4.7%


Under 20% over 60 testing positive is regular now (it was quite a bit higher).

Hopefully another result of the vaccine.

 

[paulchapo]

They had a very effective test/trace/isolate system, which much of their success is ascribed to. Once cases are low enough that every one can be chased down, restrictions can be eased without the epidemic growing.

But that graph should also give a bit of hope to everyone - if we could do that last summer without a vaccine we sure as hell should be able to with a vaccine.

The only real danger, I think, is relaxing too much too soon and setting off a 4th wave amongst the still vulnerable and unvaccinated.

Yes I want an end to this living death as much as anyone, but if as it appears we are getting on top of it lets really kick it's arse hard before rushing things.