Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I particularly liked the modelling by Warwick which suggests even without step 4, infections will be at 100000 a day by June 21st. A week to see how accurate some of this stuff really is, I suppose.
Mind you, given every modelled scenario, after step 3 was taken, proved to be hopelessly wrong with even their ’best case scenarios’ being worse than what the actual was, I won’t be betting on there being 100000 positive tests declared next Monday…..
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I *think* (will stand corrected here) that their 100,000 is the total cases per day they expect in the country, not just the one's which are picked up from tests, if that makes sense?

Eg perhaps 30,000 positive tests but believe another 70,000 will become infected on that day, in a sort of Zoe estimate. (30k still sounds too high btw, just used that figure to try and clarify).
 
Healdplace said:
I do not get this at all, That prediction of a wave has to be a worst case scenario if the virus evolves and evades the vaccine. Not any kind of extrapolation from what we know now and are seeing now.

At the current rate with which people are dying we would need multiple times as many cases daily as we were getting in January to get close to matching the hundreds of deaths a day we were getting then.

If they are seriously predicting 200.000 cases a day - say - for the 4% who the data says might still be hospitalisd after being vaccinated then why was that not made clear? It would have done the trick in making people respect the decision and take seriously the precautions.

I do not see how those figures remotely stack up against the vaccine data as of now or what we have seen from the Indian vatiant doing its worst in Bolton and having produced hospitalisations in the dozens not even the hundreds and deaths in single figures.

And if they really think we are facing a wave of hundreds of thousads of cases a day we would surely be in a proper lockdown not half way to being fully open.

What am I missing?
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I'm as bemused as you are, @Healdplace . IF the prospect this Summer is as dire as the Government assessment indicates (30,000 + deaths, presumably decimation of the NHS capacity to clear acute backlog), the Prime Minister should surely have been announcing closures of schools, pubs and sport tonight, NOT telling us everything's fine.

Who do you believe ?
 
Being cynical. Is this some spin for the gov to claim victory with?

1 bullet point saying it’s mostly going to be from unvaccinated and then the next being an “immune escape scencario”
 
Healdplace said:
I do not get this at all, That prediction of a wave has to be a worst case scenario if the virus evolves and evades the vaccine. Not any kind of extrapolation from what we know now and are seeing now.

At the current rate with which people are dying we would need multiple times as many cases daily as we were getting in January to get close to matching the hundreds of deaths a day we were getting then.

If they are seriously predicting 200.000 cases a day - say - for the 4% who the data says might still be hospitalisd after being vaccinated then why was that not made clear? It would have done the trick in making people respect the decision and take seriously the precautions.

I do not see how those figures remotely stack up against the vaccine data as of now or what we have seen from the Indian vatiant doing its worst in Bolton and having produced hospitalisations in the dozens not even the hundreds and deaths in single figures.

And if they really think we are facing a wave of hundreds of thousads of cases a day we would surely be in a proper lockdown not half way to being fully open.

What am I missing?
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You havent figured in the fact that the Government are making it up as they go along.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I *think* (will stand corrected here) that their 100,000 is the total cases per day they expect in the country, not just the one's which are picked up from tests, if that makes sense?

Eg perhaps 30,000 positive tests but believe another 70,000 will become infected on that day, in a sort of Zoe estimate. (30k still sounds too high btw, just used that figure to try and clarify).
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I don’t think that’s it, given how low the line starts from on the graph (p.10).
They‘ve also got 30000 deaths in August. Considering last August we had no vaccine and only had about 300 deaths in all of the month, it all just seems a tad implausible.
 
I cant see how those predictions can be right. A couple of weeks ago we were getting say 4000 cases a day. but deaths were since then are still circa 10. so if you multiply both by a factor of 10, you get 40000 cases and 100 deaths a day or 3000 mth. And these are figures based on comunitites where vaccine take up has been much lower than the majority of the population.
 
Summerbuzz said:
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My reading of that is that the scientists prefer a delay in easing restrictions in order to allow them to fully evaluate the properties of the delta variant. I can see the validity in delaying the date on that basis.

There is so much uncertainty about the values of key parameters in the models that it results in a clear reluctance to make any solid predictions as illustrated in the extracts below (bold bits are bold in the original) :-

5. R is estimated to be 40-80% higher for delta than for alpha, although a figure higher or lower than this cannot be ruled out.

25. This shows that, while there is a significant resurgence in admissions in all scenarios, the scale of that resurgence is highly uncertain and ranges from considerably smaller than January 2021 to considerably higher. The difference between the optimistic and cautious effectiveness assumptions leads to a factor of three difference in the peak height; between 20% additional and 20% less transmission advantage leads to a factor of five difference.

26. As results are so sensitive to these assumptions, SPI-M-O cannot determine with confidence whether taking Step 4 of the Roadmap on 21st June would result in a peak that might put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
 
worsleyweb said:
bloody hell so we likely to see another 30k plus deaths??
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Another Private Frazer ("We're Doomed") model that that totally over eggs the Covid infection pudding. I despair I really do. The scientific community are doing themselves no favours whatsoever.
Another case of garbage asumptions in, garbage modelling out.
Delta is not escaping the vaccines in anything like the numbers predicted.
Deaths just aren't happening in anything like the numbers predicted in that model.
Did they mot see the slides Whitty went through on vaccinations, hospitalisations and deaths?
For a start, younger unvaxinated people 30-50 account for most of the hospitalisations.
Then there is the ONS data on nearly 80% antibodies in the community. The data so far shows there is a drop on effectiveness of around 10 to 15% and the fact Delta with a now known unrestricted R0 of 5 leads to a base herd immunity level of 1-(1/5) = 80%.
Only children and youth can spread it in the numbers predicted with these population cohorts having had most actual linfections and real antibodies to the virus (not just the spike protein) and they are unlikely to die.
It won't get anywhere near the best case scenario listed in the models (let alone the worst case case models) that seem to be being rolled out since the announcement.
The modelling community thay I used to be a part of have lost the plot with their March nunbers and have now totally lost it. Crying wolf leads to people ignoring you.
My chances of winning the lottery with a lucky dip are probably higher than these model being anything like accurate.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:


Glad it's not just me.
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I’m not sure on the figures but the Government said another 10mil doses will be given out in the extra 28 days so that’s an average of 357k per day. I don’t watch the press conferences so the expected rate of vaccinations may have changed. Hopefully, more jabs can be given than this. We

As others have said, it was an own goal not to give the AZ / Oxford vaccine to mean under 40 years of age (maybe 30 - 40 year olds). We may well have been out of this by now if that had been the case. That and some over 50s refusing to take the vaccine thst gave it more traction.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
so a lack of confidence in the vaccines then.
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No, it’s the “proportion of hospital admissions” expected. So the double vaccine means that people in the at risk age group will now have the same chance of needing hospital as someone under 50 (could be 18 or 45) who hasn’t had the vaccine. What that shows is how effective the vaccine is given that it lowers the chance of a 70 year old being hospitalised from around 15% to around 0.15%.
 
I fucking astounds me as an island we aren’t way ahead on stopping this virus coming in, oh wait the incompetence and stupidity of this government not stopping people coming in with variants. I’m not arsed about people not getting the vaccine, if they die fuck em, I’m done now with this shit. We were told get the over 50s and vulnerable done and we would be done,they’ve moved the goalposts again next it will be anyone over the age of 10! 3 people died yesterday 3, so the whole travel, hospitality industries will be destroyed because of it, it’s ridiculous.
I get the science but science says cars are destroying the environment but we are still all driving cars and indeed more die everyday in car crashes, let’s ban them and save lives and the environment. Open up the country but ban foreign travel unless you isolate in a hotel at least we can get this country going again.
 
So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!
 
M18CTID said:
So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!
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How the fuck is that allowed..is it a class thing, people are going to kick right off and I don't blame them
 
lancs blue said:
My reading of that is that the scientists prefer a delay in easing restrictions in order to allow them to fully evaluate the properties of the delta variant. I can see the validity in delaying the date on that basis.

There is so much uncertainty about the values of key parameters in the models that it results in a clear reluctance to make any solid predictions as illustrated in the extracts below (bold bits are bold in the original) :-

5. R is estimated to be 40-80% higher for delta than for alpha, although a figure higher or lower than this cannot be ruled out.

25. This shows that, while there is a significant resurgence in admissions in all scenarios, the scale of that resurgence is highly uncertain and ranges from considerably smaller than January 2021 to considerably higher. The difference between the optimistic and cautious effectiveness assumptions leads to a factor of three difference in the peak height; between 20% additional and 20% less transmission advantage leads to a factor of five difference.

26. As results are so sensitive to these assumptions, SPI-M-O cannot determine with confidence whether taking Step 4 of the Roadmap on 21st June would result in a peak that might put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
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If so then these predictions are from 3 weeks ago when the increase in R0 was unknown. It is now known to be 40% more infectious so a natural R0 of 5. Probably similar shite assumptions on vaccine and antibody effectiveness too.
 
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M18CTID said:
So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!
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Nothing about this virus has been fair or logical,its been a contradictory farce from the off and much doesn't make sense......so don't expect anything to change now.

Taking any conspiracy theories out of it.....The phrase Piss up and brewery has never been more appropriate.
 
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