Coronavirus (2021) thread

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splinter said:
Can't see the NW being in a much better position come 19th July?
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I am a little more optimistic as the numbers are flattening in the region - that is mainly why they are not escalating nationally despite edging up in other regions.

IF - and it is an if - we have reached a plateau in the NW then we may see hospital numbers falling in a week or so.

We are not yet seeing a dramatic fall. But the increase has clearly been flattened off which is usually the precursor to a fall.

But the one place still clearly rising is Manchester and it has the worst vaccination numbers in GM and one of the worst in the UK.

That surely has to be urgently addressed? As it probably turned Bolton around.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
So, if I am reading this thread correctly, with some restrictions lifted as vaccine uptake increased, there was a concomitant increase in cases, but a minuscule (almost single digit?) number of deaths???

And for this, the UK Govt is restricting trade and industry, let alone travel, during the peak period of economic activity?

Have you guys lost your minds?

How many people die every day from other things that are simply considered “acceptable”?

I’m OBVIOUSLY not promoting the death of anyone, but grinding the country to a halt over literally two handfuls SEEMS a tad reactionary to me.

No vaccine is 100%, so in a population of 60,000,000 people, what number are you aiming for?

The whole point of shutdowns was to stop spreading death. The whole point of vaccines was to avoid contracting a potentially deadly virus and spreading it.

Methinks the BIGGER ISSUE here is the mistake BoJo may have made in not allowing all available vaccines to be used, and then advocating and promoting the first jab to the detriment of the second one…which now appears to take 2-3 MONTHS to get, not 2-3 WEEKS!

In that time and space, you’ve all been fucked out of your summer, and for what?

PLEASE don’t come back with “even the loss of one life is too many” because this whole process is not designed to save every life! It’s to stop a PANDEMIC and reduce it to manageable levels that the NHS can cope while the vaccination program stifles any future spread…….or at least it was until the goal posts started continually changing!(“Save the NHS” anyone?)

Good luck to you all, and I hope July 19th is a good day in Britain!

One last question: If kids aren’t being vaccinated, what’s going to happen to schools in Aug/Sept?
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They were worried that if all restrictions were lifted next Monday then infections due to the Indian variant would dramatically increase over and above the 7-8k a day to a much higher level. Given that not everybody has had two vaccinations hospital admissions could then rise within this group ultimately leading to deaths.
Basically they don't know how bad these numbers could be so they're not prepared to take the risk.
Some scientists disagree and are of the view that current vaccine protection levels against the delta variant are sufficient to restrict serious illness and deaths to low numbers.
It's worth noting that we wouldn't be having this debate if travel restrictions on India had been imposed earlier at the same time time as Pakistan and Bangladesh when we became aware of the delta variant. Cases would then be have been much lower giving us more breathing space to double vaccine and preventing the variant getting a foothold.
However BloJo wanted his trip to visit India and photo op with Modri to announce a trade agreement. It never happened but we delayed fatally for two weeks by which time the delta variant took a significant hold.
 
Gorton_Tubster said:
I went to ASDA and people are walking in frequently without masks and they ASDA dont say anything to them, nothing. Which is contrary to what they advertise :

-----------

Face coverings​

Customers must wear face coverings while in store, unless you are exempt.
Customers can enter Asda stores without a face covering if they have a medical condition or invisible disability that prevents them from wearing a covering.
-----------


So I am wearing my mask and I ask at the checkout why ASDA are not asking people for health exemptions? And thats it... First a security guard, then another, then the sub manager then head of security then the store manager come down (And by this time I am asking why they are going ott, no swearing and no shouting), the store manager bans me from all ASDA stores and I am escorted off the premises.

I dont give a crap about ASDA and their Walmart ways but what the actual fuck!
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It is incredible isn't it.
 
paulchapo said:
They are breaking the government's own law if they challenge people not wearing a mask if they say they are exempt. It is quite clear on the Gov UK site. In spite of videos showing staff in supermarkets doing so and police ( Who should really know the law better) they are not allowed to. Nobody has to produce proof of the reason they can't wear a mask, nor should they be harassed to do so. Just saying I'm exempt is enough
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One big reason why we have had such huge case numbers since this pandemic kicked off.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
that is a shame, You would think it would be very useful data in encouraging people to take the vaccine.
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Sometimes Gov UK seems to have a phobia againt releasing useful data.

It long resisted publising a positivity number despite the other home nations doing it and the WHO setting guidance around its numbers.

Just stating case numbers without knowing if they are from a lot more or a lot less cases than previous days gives a very myopic view of what is happening.

The positivity instantly shows you if the case numbers are rising or falling in real terms. Especially in England where pillar 1 & 2 testing can flip from 700 K to double that in 24 hours then back again in 48 hours.

Only the positivity number really shows trends and whilst you ca work it out by not focusing on it rather suggests they want just case numbers to be condidered the headline act. Assumimg journalists will give them and not bother to work out or emphasise positivity. The other nations often mention it so it is an England thing.

That raises suspicions for me of stage managing what they want people to think. Even if that is not the intention.

The way they have set up the teting data now also makes it harder to work out a true positivuty number for England.
 
Len Rum said:
They were worried that if all restrictions were lifted next Monday then infections due to the Indian variant would dramatically increase over and above the 7-8k a day to a much higher level. Given that not everybody has had two vaccinations hospital admissions could then rise within this group ultimately leading to deaths.
Basically they don't know how bad these numbers could be so they're not prepared to take the risk.
Some scientists disagree and are of the view that current vaccine protection levels against the delta variant are sufficient to restrict serious illness and deaths to low numbers.
It's worth noting that we wouldn't be having this debate if travel restrictions on India had been imposed earlier at the same time time as Pakistan and Bangladesh when we became aware of the delta variant. Cases would then be have been much lower giving us more breathing space to double vaccine and preventing the variant getting a foothold.
However BloJo wanted his trip to visit India and photo op with Modri to announce a trade agreement. It never happened but we delayed fatally for two weeks by which time the delta variant took a significant hold.
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Thank you for some kind of explanation.

“Breathing space”?
Very punny! ;-)
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago


SOUTH


East UP 41 to 385 V 313

London UP 35 to 813 V 773

South East DOWN 22 to 585 V 460

South West UP 36 to 539 V 262 - South West has been creeping up day by day and is now anout 8 ot 9 times where it was a few weeks ago. Seven days before that 262 it was 88 and it was 69 seven days before then.





MIDLANDS



East DOWN 35 to 365 V 311

West DOWN 58 to 478 V 400


The rise is a little slower here.




NORTH



North East down UP 305 to 618 V 242 - HUGE rise here in the day and week to week. This has spread from a small outbreak in Sunderland to encompass wide areas in past few days.


Yorkshire UP 39 to 674 V 541 riing modestly only here



AND

NORTH WEST DOWN 245 to 2017 V 1840 - big fall and lowest wk to wk rise in some time





Past weeks NW numbers are 1840 - 2112 - 1976 - 2317 - 2191 - 2134 - 2262 - 2017

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 780 - 1158 - 1643 - 1755 - 1752 - 1605 - 1673 - 1840

GM numbers in past week 950 - 1062 - 984 - 1191 - 1098 - 1037 - 1103 - 1014
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
We are quite a way down the list for number of cases per 1m of the population. We are all the way down in 50th. I think that’s very good, it shows (despite multiple border mistakes the govt have made) that our lockdowns - plus our compliance with mask wearing/hand washing/social distancing/isolating - has worked well.

However, for deaths per 1m of the population we are up in 19th place in the world. The correlation (or lack of it) between cases+deaths per 1m shows that it’s the poor health of our nation that’s the problem with our death count. It’s not really what the govt or SAGE have or haven’t done.

We are a country of overfat lazy unfit and ill buggers. The British Heart Foundation estimate that over 20 million adults live a sedentary lifestyle in Britain. TWENTY MILLION plus who just laze about doing sod all exercise in their lives. And when things like this come around, that’s when our poor health really becomes an issue (it’s already the major issue for why the NHS is in a mess in normal times).
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So let’s close swimming pools, gyms and outdoor sport for a year, whilst keeping Mcdonalds, KFC and Dominos open, even subsidising them for a month….
The obesity time bomb has been ticking for 30 years now and successive governments just ignore it, year after year. Diabetes, heart disease and cancer rates soaring, all impacting on the NHS, and all contributing to well over 1000 deaths a day, every day of every week of every month of every year. I think it’s fair to say that there are a few things we might think about doing slightly differently going forward, as we should undoubtedly have done over the last 18 months.
 
Full GM details:


Total cases 1014 - Down 89 on Yesterday - from NW fall of 245. This is not quite as good as it might be for GM.

Wk to wk up 64 of the NW rise of 177 - which is well under the expected 50%.

So GM on balance had a pretty good day again relative to rest of the region.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 103/ DOWN 6 / DOWN 24

BURY 78 / DOWN 24 / UP 28

MANCHESTER 268 / UP 12 / UP 54

OLDHAM 45 / DOWN 18 / DOWN 31

ROCHDALE 61 / DOWN 11 / DOWN 7

SALFORD 116 / DOWN 16 / DOWN 1

STOCKPORT 74 / DOWN 18 / DOWN 28

TAMESIDE 59 / DOWN 4 / UP 8

TRAFFORD 98 / UP 17 / UP 42

WIGAN 112 / DOWN 21 / UP 23




Some decent falls week to week and day to day today.

Manchester now though still up in both though not quitr as bad as recently but the highest numbers now in GM and not just due to its population. Its Pop score is rising a lot too.

Trafford had a surprisingly bad day also rising to its highest number in weeks and amost catching Bolton.

Stockport maintained its progress.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
So let’s close swimming pools, gyms and outdoor sport for a year, whilst keeping Mcdonalds, KFC and Dominos open, even subsidising them for a month….
The obesity timebomb has been ticking for 30 years now and successive governments just ignore it, year after year. Diabetes, heart disease and cancer rates soaring, all impacting on the NHS, and all contributing to well over 1000 deaths a day, every day of every week of every month of every year. I think it’s fair to say that there are a few things we might think about doing slightly differently going forward, as we should undoubtedly have done over the last 18 months.
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££££££££
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 402, Oldham 429, Rochdale 491, Trafford 530 , Bury 590, Stockport 634, Bolton 819, Wigan 843, Salford 875, Manchester 1876.



Manchester now more than double Bolton and Salford and Wigan now both more cases than Bolton's weekly number now as well. With Salford now 1001 behind Manchester which is clearly in a spot of bother that far ahead.

Stockport's good few days sees it fall back even closer to Bury now closing in after five of the last six numbers being under 100.

Nobody now under 400 and the 9 boroughs bunching closer with Manchester miles in front.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
So let’s close swimming pools, gyms and outdoor sport for a year, whilst keeping Mcdonalds, KFC and Dominos open, even subsidising them for a month….
The obesity time bomb has been ticking for 30 years now and successive governments just ignore it, year after year. Diabetes, heart disease and cancer rates soaring, all impacting on the NHS, and all contributing to well over 1000 deaths a day, every day of every week of every month of every year. I think it’s fair to say that there are a few things we might think about doing slightly differently going forward, as we should undoubtedly have done over the last 18 months.
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I’ve never liked the ‘nanny state’ ,to put it bluntly, as a minority controls the outcome of our life’s and becomes an excuse to introduce draconian laws. The argument is vast and too complex to be debated which makes it easier to have this Covid ID as no one knows how to broach it.

still. Doesn’t stop me getting pissed off
 
Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 402, Oldham 429, Rochdale 491, Trafford 530 , Bury 590, Stockport 634, Bolton 819, Wigan 843, Salford 875, Manchester 1876.



Manchester now more than double Bolton and Salford and Wigan now both more cases than Bolton's weekly number now as well. With Salford now 1001 behind Manchester which is clearly in a spot of bother that far ahead.

Stockport's good few days sees it fall back even closer to Bury now closing in after five of the last six numbers being under 100.

Nobody now under 400 and the 9 boroughs bunching cloer with Manchester niles in front.
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When will it peak..we can't be far off ?
 
UK daily case numbers over the past 7 days:

June 9th - 7540
June 10th - 7393
June 11th - 8125
June 12th - 7738
June 13th - 7490
June 14th - 7742
Today - 7673

Those figures are remarkably flat and give me optimism that this isn’t going to get much worse, especially as each day passes sees an extra several hundred thousand jabs administered.
 
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