Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
3118 cases in Scotland

89 in people aged 65+, now approaching triple figures when it feels like only yesterday it was single digits in this age range, low ones at that.

522 aged 45-64

1063 aged 25-44
1433 aged 0-24 (including 425 aged 0-14)

**********

1 death aged 85+

**********

Vaccines

16.5k first doses
And a very very low 9k second doses.
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89 out of 3118 is under 3% It is almost exactly the same number as in the Northerm Itreland data I post daily.

They have differentbands but today 62 are aged 60 - 79 and 8 are aged 80 plus out of 1680 cases.

We are talking 3 or 4% not 30% as was the case back in the last wave.

A huge difference because of the 2496 in your example above under 44 and the 1273 of the 1680 who are under 40 in the N Ireland data. 76% in the NI dats ad 80% in your sampe above.

The raw numbers are meaningless as they are bound to rise as cases do even if the % never changes much.

3% of 100 is 3 and of 10000 is 300. That 300 is not worse than the 3 if it is still 3%.

It will mean a few more people will get sick and die but the onlty thing that will be a problem and swamp health services or suggest the vaccines are not working is if that 3% become 13% and then we do have a problem.

But nothing in the datafrom either your Scotland reports or the N Ireand ones I pozt daily suggest anything like tht is happening.

The vaccines work. They are saving many lives. Esdecially the ones most at risk who are now hardly ever catching it. And that 3% proves it. However many the 3% actually is as cases grow.

Because when they fall so will that number if it stays at 3%.
 
west didsblue said:
Case rates are only important now for international travel because whilst we might not be getting ill, other less vaccinated countries won’t want us to infect them, and potential visitors to the U.K. won’t want to risk coming here, so we still need to get it under control so the country can fully reopen to the world and the world can reopen to us.
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As I said last night when this same argument came up case numbers DO matter only because they impact hospital numbers as the same peercentage as now of a growing number that will require NHS resources.

That number is now much lower as a percentage than it was and it is cear this wave is not coming close to swamping resources. Or likely ever will.

But the only way we will know that and notice if it changes and then discover how far we have to factor up the hospital numbers as cases grow is to watch the case numbers and the hispital data they lead into a week or two later.

The link between cases - patients - and deaths has been massively reduced but it still exists and watching it will tell us if the behaviour of the virus alters.

So we do need to keep recording cases at present.
 
west didsblue said:
Case rates are only important now for international travel because whilst we might not be getting ill, other less vaccinated countries won’t want us to infect them, and potential visitors to the U.K. won’t want to risk coming here, so we still need to get it under control so the country can fully reopen to the world and the world can reopen to us.
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Spot on, after the euphoria of our successful vaccination program the penny is now dropping that until we reach some sort of global herd immunity we are trapped on our island.
Proof of the pudding will be the vaccine lowering hospitalisation / fatality percentage rather than infection rates I suppose - we're only likely to get a handle on this as we go into autumn/winter I think.
 
Horrible report on radio 4 that gtr manchester had suffered a 25% higher Covid fatality rate than the rest of England due to inequalities in housing, poverty , healthcare etc.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
Horrible report on radio 4 that gtr manchester had suffered a 25% higher Covid fatality rate than the rest of England due to inequalities in housing, poverty , healthcare etc.
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The poor always suffer the worst World over..it'll never change
 
Healdplace said:
89 out of 3118 is under 3% It is almost exactly the same number as in the Northerm Itreland data I post daily.

They have differentbands but today 62 are aged 60 - 79 and 8 are aged 80 plus out of 1680 cases.

We are talking 3 or 4% not 30% as was the case back in the last wave.

A huge difference because of the 2496 in your example above under 44 and the 1273 of the 1680 who are under 40 in the N Ireland data. 76% in the NI dats ad 80% in your sampe above.

The raw numbers are meaningless as they are bound to rise as cases do even if the % never changes much.

3% of 100 is 3 and of 10000 is 300. That 300 is not worse than the 3 if it is still 3%.

It will mean a few more people will get sick and die but the onlty thing that will be a problem and swamp health services or suggest the vaccines are not working is if that 3% become 13% and then we do have a problem.

But nothing in the datafrom either your Scotland reports or the N Ireand ones I pozt daily suggest anything like tht is happening.

The vaccines work. They are saving many lives. Esdecially the ones most at risk who are now hardly ever catching it. And that 3% proves it. However many the 3% actually is as cases grow.

Because when they fall so will that number if it stays at 3%.
Click to expand...

Agree to a certain extent. A rise in % of that age group becoming infected would indicate a potential bigger problem, but the raw number matters in its own way imo. If case numbers keep rising then that 3% would obviously represent a larger raw number, it still likely leads to more sick people needing hospital treatment.

I know that range is gladly rising almost as a proportion so far (maybe a bit higher if anything from where we were 6 weeks ago?) but if/when cases are reaching 5,000, 7,000 or hopefully nowhere near 10,000 - that 3% becomes up to 300 and you end up with a lot more hospital admissions just based on that alone when those numbers are being reported continuously over several days/weeks etc.

I know I'm being hypothetical, but I've honestly no idea where or when the growth rate in cases stops. I thought in April time that we'd never see above 2,000 again and we've already well surpassed that. People are again talking about a plateau now after the huge jumps from last week but it's a bit early to say if its one of those 'false hopes' Scotland has had 3 or 4 times over the past few weeks. Fingers crossed it stabilises or reduces from where its at right now. Today will be a big indicator of that as it was exactly one week ago the cases almost reached the 3k mark for the first time so we will see how things have accelerated/stabilised since with a week on week comparison, fingers crossed for the latter.
 
west didsblue said:
Case rates are only important now for international travel because whilst we might not be getting ill, other less vaccinated countries won’t want us to infect them, and potential visitors to the U.K. won’t want to risk coming here, so we still need to get it under control so the country can fully reopen to the world and the world can reopen to us.
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The question is how do we get cases under control? We don't have any reasonable measure except lockdowns to control case rates and that isn't an option. We have to be firm, if the vaccines reduce hospitalisations and deaths then there is nothing to fear.

Hospitalisations are still on a very flat curve whilst daily case rates have nearly tripled in a few weeks. Going off past waves hospitalisations should be increasing by at least 50% per week but it's currently around 50% in a month. Deaths are actually falling which suggests everyone who is in hospital is young or treatable anyway.

The major threat lies for other unvaccinated countries but surely it's their option if they want to halt arrivals to/from the UK. This is why I think US travel will open up far quicker than perhaps anywhere else, their cases are falling and they have a similar number (%) of people vaccinated compared to here.

As mentioned in the political thread, if you compare this with Australia (only 5% fully vaccinated), there's not a chance in hell anyone will be travelling there this year.
 
Apologies today but my computer has gone gaga so unless I can fix it or get a new one I have very limited access via an old one that i coaxed back into life after several hours but is very clunky, So please bear with me.
 
Wales update:

Deep breath

0 deaths - was 0 yesterday

513 cases - was 213 last week

4.2% positivity - was 2.3 last week
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
Horrible report on radio 4 that gtr manchester had suffered a 25% higher Covid fatality rate than the rest of England due to inequalities in housing, poverty , healthcare etc.
Click to expand...
Not surprising, the country is horrendously divided and getting worse. London is like another country.
 
Scotland data:

3 deaths - was 5 last week

3887 cases - was 2969 last week - highest ever in Scotland

9.8% positivity - still going up - was 7.3% last week

235 patients - up 20 on yesterday - was 170 last week. Accelerating with the cases but not out of control yet

19 ventilated - was 20 yesterday & 18 last week - the same here - as yet no significant increase
 
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