Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

That's says every adult by june 10 .telegraph says over 40s by April 4..either way its bloody good news..jab away!

Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Okay i will try, first off, apologies that you do not understand, if you have a product that will raise billions you need to get it on the market first, you need to create a market often through freebies and you need to develop repeat customers. what Britain has lost through closure is in line with other Countries we have lost nothing on our competitors. does that help?
Now can you answer the questions i raised?

Not only do your views appear to be incompatible with the sciences of virology and epiemiology, I have to say that your writing is completely impenetrable.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

6 deaths - was 7 last week

210 cases - was 195 last week.

1.7% positivity - was 1.6% last week

Weekly Pop score 42 - up from 41 yesterday - was 48 last week


As we see everywhere data has plateaued this week and is starting to show small signs of increase - schools and mass testing likely relevant.

How far this goes is the big question. It is currently not a problem. But it easily can become one.

As I explained in my post last night here on the GM data which has started to go upward again it was expected as you must find more cases if you do more tests and many of those tests may have been false positives if they are the less accurate rapid tests.

So this could be an expected and even temporary blip or a real change in the spread created by people feeling more free to act now vaccination is going so well and the return of schooling that is all but certain to increase cases.

We have to watch how it goes over the next two weeks. That will tell where we really are and what we can or cannot do next.

Though the data has not stopped Wales from now even further easing the lockdown ahead of the rest of the UK.

A 0.1% positivity rise week to week and 17 cases is no big deal in Wales. But if it goes up daily and this time next week we are 500 cases and 3% positivity that would be another matter.

 

[Healdplace]

Italy confirms a third wave and a new lockdown with over 25,000 cases a day.

I hope we never see that many again and I think the comparison given the vaccination disparity will be a good test of vaccine efficacy.

But as we keep noting cases are no longer really 'the' measure - hospital numbers and deaths are.

If they keep falling 25,000 cases are not worth worrying about.

 

[salfordbluetrue]

Not only do your views appear to be incompatible with the sciences of virology and epiemiology, I have to say that your writing is completely impenetrable.

Your right my writing is awful, and my typing no better, but my view on virology etc are unimportant, I was asking for information, age, secondary, primary, coverage, risk,Flu. Pneumonia, there is a huge amount of important figures that have not been released, and the Government propaganda machine that is the BBC is still pumping out trash, apart from the Death figures, just take masks, we have known since Spanish Flu that face covering is a breeding ground for Viruses

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination update:

1, 084, 329 first doses given - 27, 542 today - was 22, 646 yesterday & 16, 377 last week

250, 026 second doses given - 12, 669 today - was 15, 455 yesterday & 13, 344 last week

 

[shemnel]

Guess the major country with the highest current vaccination rate?

View attachment 12357

Chile, obviously!

Mainly with the Chinese Sinovac at the moment.

Ahhhhh Chile. I was meant to go to Chile in the autumn of 2019, which was cancelled due to the riots and rearranged for June 2020 which was cancelled due to some pandemic or some such.....
I'm going for 3rd time lucky and this is a good graph!!!

 

[johnnytapia]

It is a risk - yes - but a well judged and necessary step, because missing a year of schooling will damage 50 years of children's futures. We may even have to extend the schooling of the current generation by six months - perhaps by reducing Summer holidays by a week or two in the next few years.

This gamble was deliberately well timed as the Easter break is here soon and by then we will have a good idea of how much increase in cases is occurring from the return and if it settles after a week or two as it ought to do and see if the natural break that then comes slows things down and gives time to judge whether to delay return and extend the school year into the Summer instead if no other option.

I trained as a teacher (though never became one full time after that as I got 'distracted' by other things) but we cannot let our children's education pay for this pandemic. We will regret it for the next 20 years if we do.

Extend the school day, make them repeat the year, cutback the summer holiday, do weekend lessons, all been mentioned, and more. Yet not a shred of evidence they work and all spouted by politicians as knee-jerk reaction in a “we must be seen to be doing something “ way. Catch up Tsar, tuition Tsar, etc etc. Talk of kids losing out 40k’s worth of salary based on no research that’s worth a grain of salt. The kids who worked hard before lockdown; the kids who have supportive parents, guess what? They’ll still be the kids who do fine. And those with boneidle parents will struggle. And the pandemic hasn’t changed that one iota. The rush to cram in any so called lost learning is the action of an idiot. It will take time, and we’ll get there, but it needs to be done gradually and evidence based. In a class of 30 there will be a kid who’s first and a kid who’s thirtieth. ‘Twas ever thus and ever shall be.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App again predicts a small fall in new cases today 0f 56 to 5087.

Also fell below 100,000 for first time in months for the numbers who are predicted to have Covid in the UK right now. At 99. 301.

Which is an average of about one in 670 people.

North West is still rating as the second highest in England on predicted numbers. Only Yorkshire higher.

But given population and density of population (potentially in two different ways of interpreting the word density) that is inevitable really.

 

[Healdplace]

By the way on the cases rise in past few days someone on line pointed out an obvious thing that I had missed but seems relevant.

That some of the new school testing this week reports back so fast that it by passes the usual 5 day period where cases are coming in from all those dates.

The number reported daily has long had relatively few actually added from the day before and totals up the numbers of returned positive tests from the past week or so.

This is why the 'fixed' data used to create government tables like weekly pop scores is always 5/6 days late. It takes that long to accurately assign cases to the true date when the test was done.

This is much like the way it happens with the daily hospital deaths. Few of those ever happen on literally the day before but tot up over in this case a much longer period. We had about 7 cases from 2020 in yesterdays England deaths for instance. And in fact only 20 of the 132 England hospital deaths reported yesterday actually happened on Thursday - the day they are assigned to by the reporting.

However, the school testing is often done on the rapid testing methods now available as these trade off lower accuracy with speed of knowing so self isolation can begin immediately to curtail spread even if in a percentage of cases the positive result will be in error.

Those rapid result tests will of course feed into the system quicker than the five or six days we are used to waiting. So in the early period of this testing there was certain to be a rise in positive cases simply because more tests were being processed within 24/48 hours than were before and so that number was counted up to a week ahead of when it would have done to the finalised figures using the older style testing methods.

THis impact would have been most obvious in the first 5 days or so of testing- as in the past school week.

So it might be that part of the rise is just that - the boost naturally created by the faster return of tests.

I guess we will find out if things change next week when this initial one off boost will have disappeared by comparison week to week.