Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueHammer85 said:
or.. just let it rip... thousands and thousands infected, dead with a overwhelmed health care system
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If only it was as black and white as you made it out to be, it’d be simple..
They’re putting ’infected’ signs on people’s doors. The military are patrolling the streets. You can’t move from state to state.
All advice, pre 2020, was to NOT doing anything like this for a respiratory virus and the ONLY thing that changed was the Chinese saying how brilliantly lockdown worked…
 
Healdplace said:
A ZOE app study shows cases have risen by 19% over the past 7 days. And for first time in a while all three measures - cases, hospitalisations and deaths are rising in tandem. Though deaths at the lower level as on that graph above.

Their study shows the highest % of new cases is in the 18 to 35 age group and the second most in all children under 18.

This is exactly what the 7 day Stats for cases for Northern Ireland has been showing with slightly different age range coverage there.

ZOE also found that 30% of those who test positive have been double jabbed. But of course most of them will not become hospital patients.
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Stopping counting ‘cases’ has got to be the next step, as has stopping testing people with no symptoms. Without that, this pandemic will never end, even when it’s ended….
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
If only it was as black and white as you made it out to be, it’d be simple..
They’re putting ’infected’ signs on people’s doors. The military are patrolling the streets. You can’t move from state to state.
All advice, pre 2020, was to NOT doing anything like this for a respiratory virus and the ONLY thing that changed was the Chinese saying how brilliantly lockdown worked…
Click to expand...
2 of my work colleagues (we are an essential service) need a permit to come to work as they live in an area with higher infection rates. They can only get a permit if they have had at least one jab. One of the guys was having his morning coffee in his front yard and a cop drove past and told to him he had to get back in his house immediately (and show ID to prove he lived there).
 
Healdplace said:
A ZOE app study shows cases have risen by 19% over the past 7 days. And for first time in a while all three measures - cases, hospitalisations and deaths are rising in tandem. Though deaths at the lower level as on that graph above.

Their study shows the highest % of new cases is in the 18 to 35 age group and the second most in all children under 18.

This is exactly what the 7 day Stats for cases for Northern Ireland has been showing with slightly different age range coverage there.

ZOE also found that 30% of those who test positive have been double jabbed. But of course most of them will not become hospital patients.
Click to expand...
Just watched tim Spector latest video on YouTube..rather downbeat, looks like we're in for a tricky autumn and winter
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

100 with 10 North West.

Last week 80 with 8 NW, week before 64 with 19 NW.

By region: East 8, London 13, Midlands 18, NE & Yorkshire 28, North West 10, South East 10, South West 13

First time we have had three successive days of 100 or over deaths here since last Winter.

As expected the other regions are now adding in more and more cases and NW is now nowhere near the top contributor every day. But there are 6 regions and just 1 North West - so overall numbers will rise.

Although these MAY be close to the peak of the deaths per day as today's will be from 2 or 3 weeks ago about where cases rose up to and cases have somewhat levelled off in the regions since then.

Much of recent rises have not been driven by England but the other home nations - which is unusual but as Ayrshire noted last night may be linked to the later back to school after Summer in England. As schoolchildren are major factors in the cases to bump up the numbers but not in becoming hospital patients - which is really all that matters.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS:

The 100 by trust in the NW:

2 each in Blackpool & Manchester (that Blackpool holiday peak of cases during the hot weather 2 weeks back maybe creating its legacy now)

1 each in Bolton, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), St Helens, Tameside, Wirral & Wigan.


By age group:- 0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (6) , 40 - 59 (12) 60 - 79 (38), 80 PLUS (43)


19% of deaths under 60 today. The older you are the more Covid risks you. That will never change probably.

But clearly the vaccinations skewed towards the older ages and the sheer numbers catching it under 40 are tipping the scales a bit.
 
Scotland

4925 cases
Was 3367 last week (It's stopped doubling if we're really searching for a glimmer of light)

11.5% positive
Was 9.0% last week


426 in hospital (+35 from yesterday, or +109 from last Thursday for the cases don't matter brigade) With case numbers continuing to rise and the huge numbers only having been seen this week, expect hospital numbers to increase even more rapidly in the near future.

47 in ICU, +3 from yesterday, or +14 from last Thursday.


14 deaths
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS



WEEK BY WEEK - LAST 4 WEEKS DAILY DEATHS BY DATE WITH WEEKLY TOTAL FOR EACH DAY AFTER 5 DAYS



25 - 31 JULY /// 42 - 51 - 42 - 33 - 44 - 62 - 62: WK TOTAL 336 - 28 added to it since

01 - 07 AUG /// 51 - 52 - 40 - 48 - 58- 54 - 61: WK TOTAL 364 - 44 added to it since

08 - 14 AUG /// 57 - 40 - 48 - 57 - 66 - 53 - 69: WK TOTAL 390 - 37 added to it since

15 - 21 AUG /// 60 - 56 - 66 - 57 - 65 - 71 - 73: WK TOTAL 448 - 18 added to it since


Bit of an uptick here as the NW falls but other regions rise.

If we top out around 600 in the week that will be OK considering in January - coming from similar case numbers to now - the equivalent 7 day total in England was 7805.

7805 V 448 is another VERY clear illustration of what the vaccines have achieved.

In other words there is about a 94% success rate in preventing death in the numbers - which is pretty much exactly in line with predictions from the vaccine tests.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA


BETTER NEWS CONTINUES HERE


4 deaths - was 9 last week

1550 cases - was 1963 last week

8.1% positivity - was 9.7 last week

11, 642 weekly total cases - was 11, 917 yesterday.

126 care home outbreaks - down 2 on yesterday & last week

AT LAST STARTING TO LOOK LIKE NI IS BACK ON TOP OF THESE

376 patients - down 12 on yesterday - was 379 last week

26 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 31 last week


FIRST REALLY HOPEFUL NUMBERS ACROSS ALL MEASURES IN A WHILE
 
So todays deaths with out of hospital England to add are:- 119

Last week at this stage the total was 98 - that became 113 all settings when England out of hospital were added.
 
And todays three nation total cases with England to add is:- 8864 - another record in this wave.

Last week at this stage it was 6810.

England later added 29, 762 to total UK 36, 572


Yesterday England added 27, 350 to the rest of the UK number of 8497 to total 35, 847
 
ZOE APP DATA

Predicted cases up 367 to 52, 328.

Ongoing symptomatic cases up 7740 (was up 6787 yesterday) to 669, 301
 
Been putting off my second AZ for a couple of months, had a tummy ache after the first one, then a really bad one two weeks later (probably unconnected) that's never quite gone away.

Got it yesterday. Feel much better today. My persistent sore throat worsened overnight but today seems to be almost back to normal for the first time in a year. Slept better too.
 
ZOE APP REGIONS



NORTHERN IRELAND - still top and another big jump from 709 / 1847 TO 772 / 1993

YORKSHIRE - though - FALLS again - from 784 / 1074 TO 739 / 1019

NORTH WEST NOW UP INTO SECOND ABOVE YORKSHIRE

But again only UP a little from 760 / 1012 TO 767 / 1017


South West, North East, London all also in the second watch band with the North West.

These all VERY slowly rising but London has turned flat.


SCOTLAND rising has lost top spot as best in UK

UP from 518 / 783 TO 531/791


WALES stays top - though rising much like Scotland quite fast from 462 / 766 TO 507 / 815
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST

GM Boroughs

BOLTON UP to 12, 057 FROM 9864

BURY DOWN to 13, 153 FROM 14, 186 - second highest in GM behind Wigan

MANCHESTER UP to 9609 FROM 7631 - Manchester still doing OK but a jump up today

OLDHAM DOWN to 6066 from 8375 - good fall here

ROCHDALE BIG RISE to 9580 from 6197 - Close to joining the higher (over 10K) watch list

SALFORD DOWN well to 9320 from 12, 193 - Salford going the right way now happily

STOCKPORT UP to 10, 594 from 9878 - goes into the 10 K watch zone for first time in 3 weeks but 4 other boroughs ahead of it

TAMESIDE DOWN to 5487 from 9343 - surprisingly good fall here - IF you can trust Zoe data - always an issue in Tameside - then it is the best in GM right now

TRAFFORD EDGES DOWN to 12, 158 from 12, 649 - levelled off

WIGAN DOWN BIG to 17, 565 from 21, 593 - hard to know which way this is going here


AS YOU SEE MOST OF THE GM BOROUGHS CLUSTERED AROUND THE 9000 - 12,000 MID TABLE.


OTHERS:-

Cheshire East still keeping good track with Stockport as it tends to do being neighbour boroughs - up a little to 9580 from 8374.

Liverpool down a little but still just over Manchester on 11, 595

But St Helens is again the main problem round Merseyside though down a bit on 15, 642

Sefton (Southport etc) also up to 11, 686

The Blackpool area still falling and now under 10K on 9979.

Neighbouring boroughs Chorley (19, 347) and South Ribble (19, 148) are the highest in NW right now.
 
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