Coronavirus (2021) thread

[shemnel]

Hard to rationalise that.

Is the data all day of sample/admission/death, or day of reporting?

spec date, admission date, death date

i think it's a mixture of Marvin's theory that more 85+ can be accepted to hospital (which strikes a sad note for what has passed) and those positive tests are coming in hospital itself and the admission is separate? but then would the admission even be recorded.....

building on @Marvin 's suggestion, it could be that now hospital's can accept many more patients, oldies are now quickly removed from their circumstances to prevent spread? this is all baseless theory.

i think it's a bit strange myself.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

I keep hearing this one from the tin foil hat wearers but I don't recall any of them predicting Covid passports as far back as 12 months ago. It's only when it dragged on for months that they started coming out with it. And it's the fact that the pandemic has gone on longer than many expected, killed more people than many expected, and destroyed economies across the globe more than many expected that Covid passports have become a realistic proposition. If it came and went with minimal damage then they wouldn't be needed.

So the conspiracy theorists have (sort of) got one thing right. That's still one less thing than a stopped clock gets right every single day. Perhaps we'd be better off discussing all the things they've predicted that they've got wrong and will never happen. For starters, the notion that this is all part of ushering in a New World Order and reducing the global population by over 90% from 7.8 billion to 500 million. If that is indeed the plan, then they're not doing a very good job of killing that many people off because since Covid was declared a pandemic 12 months ago, far from the global population being reduced by billions, it's actually gone up by about 80 million in that time.

OK but you can't deny that the goverment of this country last year kept ruling out passports consistently, now it's virtually akin to putting a gun to people's heads and saying "get jabbed or else" - a major switch of policy.

I don't buy into the conspiracy theories and I will have my jab when I can but I really don't like the language and over aggressive policies of this goverment the last few weeks, making holidays illegal and now the seemingly aggressive tone of the vaccination programme and the consequences if people say "no". Also the jabs were meant to mean some freedom, we don't have any!

It's the constant changing of the goalposts that pisses people off, half of the population have been jabbed, shouldn't people now have a bit more of normality than what we have?

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Press release here.

AZD1222 US Phase III primary analysis confirms safety and efficacy

www.astrazeneca.com

The whole thing becomes even weirder - final results with 190 events gives efficacy point estimate of 76% with 68-82% confidence interval.

"Misleading" interim results gave efficacy point estimate of 79% with 149 events- well within the final confidence interval.

So why the hell did:

1) AZ publish the press release based on interim when they were apparently told not to by the monitoring board, and had the full results just two days later anyway? Why not just wait 48 hours?

2) The monitoring board go completely nuts over a difference of no significance whatever?

Bizarre episode.

Great data.

The official line is that AZ felt it was essential to get the interim results out to quash the allegations about causing brain clots. That was undermining vaccine roll out as we know.

The Monitoring Board need to answer your 2nd question.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

spec date, admission date, death date

i think it's a mixture of Marvin's theory that more 85+ can be accepted to hospital (which strikes a sad note for what has passed) and those positive tests are coming in hospital itself and the admission is separate? but then would the admission even be recorded.....

building on @Marvin 's suggestion, it could be that now hospital's can accept many more patients, oldies are now quickly removed from their circumstances to prevent spread? this is all baseless theory.

i think it's a bit strange myself.

There's now a policy of admitting all elderly positive pts to hospital as a precaution, or essentially all transmission now within hospitals?? No idea if either is true or not.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The official line is that AZ felt it was essential to get the interim results out to quash the allegations about causing brain clots. That was undermining vaccine roll out as we know.

Not seen that before. Sample size nowhere near large enough to find those events (20,000 on active only).

 

[jay_mcfc]

Hasn't it already been explained that perhaps Spain just followed suit as a matter of course when Germany and France suspended so weren't necessarily doing it as much for political reasons as those other countries?

I'm loathe to say how much the trashing of the AZ vaccine across Europe is down to the EU getting arsey and using deflection tactics to take the spotlight away from their poor performance so far but one thing I do know is that @Chippy_boy can't be accused of being a Brexiteer and having an agenda against the EU because he was one of the staunchest Remainers on this forum.

I never said he was. But he is in a UK bubble getting UK news with no idea of how autonomous regions of Spain are suffering, what's important to them and their reasons for suspending it. Yes Spain obviously was keeping an eye on the information from other EU countries but they only acted when there were suspicions within their own regions.

If Spain had said they were suspending it the day Germany did without using their own data I would have said he might have a point. But that's not how it works here, each region looks after their own interests and what I can assure you categorically is that Andalusia is far more interested in gettingt to grips with the situation so they can bring in tourists this year than they do of suspending their only hope of normality to allow the EU to save face. It just doesn't make sense unless you want it to make sense and you concoct a story of how a few EU politicians so desperate to discredit the UK can control the actions of so many different governments against what is actually good for them.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Not seen that before. Sample size nowhere near large enough to find those events (20,000 on active only).

It’s further down the Twitter thread that confirms the final results mate.

 

[M18CTID]

OK but you can't deny that the goverment of this country last year kept ruling out passports consistently, now it's virtually akin to putting a gun to people's heads and saying "get jabbed or else" - a major switch of policy.

I don't buy into the conspiracy theories and I will have my jab when I can but I really don't like the language and over aggressive policies of this goverment the last few weeks, making holidays illegal and now the seemingly aggressive tone of the vaccination programme and the consequences if people say "no". Also the jabs were meant to mean some freedom, we don't have any!

It's the constant changing of the goalposts that pisses people off, half of the population have been jabbed, shouldn't people now have a bit more of normality than what we have?

I'm not a fan of this government but where have they said "get jabbed or else"? The way I see it, they're more reluctant to bring in Covid passports than some other governments and would prefer to leave it up to individual businesses/venues to decide. If other countries insist we have to have one to holiday there then there's not much our government can do but to go along with it.

Also, where have they made holidays "illegal"? All they're doing is just advising that the situation in many other countries is such that booking anything for the near future wouldn't be a wise move. You can still take a punt though and book a holiday abroad if you want.

As for not having any freedom despite half the country being jabbed, we have a roadmap out of lockdown that was announced weeks ago and so far that timetable hasn't been altered, so unless something goes drastically wrong in the meantime you can go and get wankered in a pub beer garden in a little over 2 weeks time.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It’s further down the Twitter thread that confirms the final results mate.

Cheers. Makes zero sense to me, given the reported prevalence is << the sample size and they had the full data to satisfy the DSMB concerns just 2 days later anyway.

Maybe just everyone is getting completely overwrought and sleep deprived.

 

[shemnel]

I'm not a fan of this government but where have they said "get jabbed or else"? The way I see it, they're more reluctant to bring in Covid passports than some other governments and would prefer to leave it up to individual businesses/venues to decide. If other countries insist we have to have one to holiday there then there's not much our government can do but to go along with it.

Also, where have they made holidays "illegal"? All they're doing is just advising that the situation in many other countries is such that booking anything for the near future wouldn't be a wise move. You can still take a punt though and book a holiday abroad if you want.

As for not having any freedom despite half the country being jabbed, we have a roadmap out of lockdown that was announced weeks ago and so far that timetable hasn't been altered, so unless something goes drastically wrong in the meantime you can go and get wankered in a pub beer garden in a little over 2 weeks time.

you can book if you like but i am sure travelling abroad is still illegal, without a certified reason?

Foreign travel advice - GOV.UK

Get advice and warnings about travel abroad, including entry requirements, safety and security, health risks and legal differences.

www.gov.uk