Regarding the earlier discussion about prevalence of ventilation versus hospital bed occupancy this is a point I have been tracking given the new variant of the virus.
We are expecting any wave now to be less deadly as we were putting too many patients on ventilators as we had no other treatments to offer to save the sickest.
Here is some data as the wave we had in the North West in the autumn was driven by the older versions of the virus as the new one was yet to arrive in any numbers.
But where we are now is driven by the new variant - particularly in London but increasingly so in the NW (at last count pre Christmas NW was 25% new variant and rising London around 70%).
Is the new variant causing patients to become more ill and requiring extra ventilation is the question the data might help answer?
At the peak of the first wave (12 April) there were 18, 974 in hospital in England with Covid. And 2881 on ventilators.
That is 15.2% of all patients ventilated.
In that first wave in the NW in April 3065 were in hospital on 13 April. And 350 on ventilators a day or two later at the most. That is 11.4% of the patients ventilated at peak. Which is well below the England average.
Why did the NW have below average numbers on ventilators from the start?
In autumn when there was a second wave focused in the North West at its peak on 16 Nov there were 3158 in hospital, We briefly went above the numbers in that first wave. But that is still (for now) the most ever in hospital in the NW. But the NW is rising again so possibly not for long.
Ventilator numbers in that November wave peaked that same week at 280. So this was an 8.9% maximum on ventilators - a modest but clear reduction of the proportion ventilated from the 11.4% in April.
In London during the first wave they peaked at 5198 patients on 8 April (London was about a week ahead of the NW in the first wave as it started in the south and spread north much as this new variant seems to have done in December).
Ventilators peaked in London two days later at 1057 - making the maximum % on ventilators there 20.3%.
So there were significantly more put on ventilators in London than the NW during the first wave.
A fact I have not seen mentioned by anyone nor explained. It does seem odd.
Currently in London there were (yesterday) 6733 in hospital - well over the first wave peak patient number already as you can see.
And on ventilators right now there are 814. That is 243 below the peak number in April but rising fast.
As there are more patients but fewer on ventilators this brings a percentage of 12. 1% in London right now- well below the 20.3% in April.
The current situation in the NW as of yesterday is 223 on ventilators from 2812 patients which is 7.9%
To summarise:-
So the old strain created in London a peak ventilated number in April of 20.3% and the new one right now is at 12.1% - significantly less even given it is driven by the more virulent strain,
The old strain in the NW created in two waves 11,4 % ventilated in April and 8.9% in November. Currently the numbers in the NW on ventilators are 7.9% of patients. Lower still.
So that certainly seems to suggest the new strain is not proving more dangerous. Just far easier to spread.
The England wide situation right now is 26, 626 in hospital and 2310 on ventilators - which is 8.7%. Similar to the NW in the November wave.
