unicorn
Well-Known Member
Really interesting analysis, thanks @Healdplace.Just been looking at the Zoe App data for symptomatic cases day by day. The numbers are staggering.
In the autumn they peaked on 5 November with 578, 822 on that data reporting they had symptomatic cases to the app.
On 4 November the UK Cases peaked in real life (not the Zoe app) - closely matching the Zoe peak date with 25, 177 daily cases recorded.
This was when the big North West outbreak peaked.
It fell steadily for the next few weeks and bottomed out on Zoe on 298 356 on 14 December. In the actual recorded numbers cases bottomed out at 12, 282 cases on 8 December.
Then the Kent variant took off in the south very fast.
By mid January this peaked on Zoe at 806, 438 symptomatic cases in effect on 12 January - 4 days after the highest ever daily UK cases were recorded in the UK - 68, 053 on 8 January.
This was just a week before the peak number were in UK hospitals with Covid (over 39,000 at that point) and maximum deaths (about 1300 a day for a week or so) were occurring.
Then numbers started to plummet slowly at first then accelerating - via a combination of increased vaccinations after the big ramp up in over 70s and the by now several week established winter lockdown.
The fall since then has been continuous in every measure.
Cases as of yesterday were under 3000. UK hospital patients just over 3000 (down over 35,000 since mid January) and ventilated patients around 500 instead of over 4000 as they were in January.
And the Zoe app symptomatic cases fell and fell from that 806. 438 peak which had closely mirrored the real life case and hospital data.
On 1 Feb it was 436, 159 symptomatic cases - nearly halved in 3 weeks.
On 15 Feb it had halved again to 213, 443
On 1 March the curve had slowed but it was still down to 142, 097
It went below 100, 000 on 13 March.
As of yesterday it was at 57, 138.
This shows the progress of Covid much more complex than just first wave/Lockdown/second wave/vaccination.
Those 57,138 symptomatic cases equates to under 1 per 1,000 of the population.