Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Just been looking at the Zoe App data for symptomatic cases day by day. The numbers are staggering.

In the autumn they peaked on 5 November with 578, 822 on that data reporting they had symptomatic cases to the app.

On 4 November the UK Cases peaked in real life (not the Zoe app) - closely matching the Zoe peak date with 25, 177 daily cases recorded.

This was when the big North West outbreak peaked.

It fell steadily for the next few weeks and bottomed out on Zoe on 298 356 on 14 December. In the actual recorded numbers cases bottomed out at 12, 282 cases on 8 December.

Then the Kent variant took off in the south very fast.

By mid January this peaked on Zoe at 806, 438 symptomatic cases in effect on 12 January - 4 days after the highest ever daily UK cases were recorded in the UK - 68, 053 on 8 January.

This was just a week before the peak number were in UK hospitals with Covid (over 39,000 at that point) and maximum deaths (about 1300 a day for a week or so) were occurring.

Then numbers started to plummet slowly at first then accelerating - via a combination of increased vaccinations after the big ramp up in over 70s and the by now several week established winter lockdown.

The fall since then has been continuous in every measure.

Cases as of yesterday were under 3000. UK hospital patients just over 3000 (down over 35,000 since mid January) and ventilated patients around 500 instead of over 4000 as they were in January.

And the Zoe app symptomatic cases fell and fell from that 806. 438 peak which had closely mirrored the real life case and hospital data.

On 1 Feb it was 436, 159 symptomatic cases - nearly halved in 3 weeks.

On 15 Feb it had halved again to 213, 443

On 1 March the curve had slowed but it was still down to 142, 097

It went below 100, 000 on 13 March.

As of yesterday it was at 57, 138.
Really interesting analysis, thanks @Healdplace.

This shows the progress of Covid much more complex than just first wave/Lockdown/second wave/vaccination.

Those 57,138 symptomatic cases equates to under 1 per 1,000 of the population.
 
Northern Ireland data

THIS IS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS NOT JUST YESTERDAY - SO COMPARED HERE WITH COMBINED SAT & SUN DATA LAST WEEK.

2 deaths - was 2 last week on those days

89 cases - was 181 last week on those days.

No other data for here as yet. Will update if it appears.
 
England hospital deaths wk to wk:

178 / 14 NW / 7%

127 / 12 NW / 10%

101 / 5 NW / 5%

76 / 3 NW / 4%

48 / 7 NW / 15%

18 / 2 NW / 11%

15 / 2 NW / 14% TODAY
 
So total deaths today with out of hospital from England to add (likely none as weekend data) and any deductions for eliminated or duplicated is 25

Wk to wk: 191 v 132 v 104 v 79 v 49 v 19 v 25

So today is UP from last week for the first time.

But you have to factor in that both N Ireland and Wales are reporting double day data today. So that is not as concerning as you might think.

England as you saw was down week to week and Scotland was 0 both weeks. So by far the two biggest parts of the UK have not gone up. And you cannot go down from zero!
 
And the three nation case totals with England to add are 526 and two of those three nations are reporting TWO DAY data within this number. So it is even lower really than it is.

Wk to wk: - 1221 v 717 v 809 v 825 v 596 v 542 v 526 TODAY

So still the lowest despite two double day totals included.
 
Anyone willing to comment knowledgeably on Ferguson's claim that the AZ vaccine is vulnerable to the South African variant and puts the UK recovery at risk?
If all the numbers keep going as they are he’s in danger of being Neil who?
If they‘d furloughed SAGE and the MPs salaries, there would be a very different policy being followed........
 
If they‘d furloughed SAGE and the MPs salaries, there would be a very different policy being followed........

Are you suggesting that the scientists are only putting forward this viewpoint because they are not impacted by the decisions?

You do realise that most of those on SAGE work in Higher Education, a sector that is most likely losing an awful lot of money from accommodation, substantial fall in fees from international students etc.. Do you know that their families are not suffering economically and emotionally from lockdown?

You think scientists base their advice on what you consider to be the perceived impact on them? That's an odd take with absolutely no rational basis.
 
Boris press conference in 5 minutes for any who have forgotten, BBC 1 now.

Detailing our way forward.
 
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