Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Manc Born & Bred]

Since when? Maybe someone should tell the nhs this as their constant messages and calls say different

That was my understanding unless the rules have changed.

 

[Gabriel]

Israel has ’labeled all areas of Africa - with the exception of northern Africa - as “red.” This means that Israelis are banned from traveling there and no foreigners can enter Israel from those countries.’

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/south-african-variant-of-concern-discovered-in-israel-687074

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

He was symptomless at his test so he should be isolating for 10 days from the test regardless.

That's true. Yet KDB can't suddenly appear on the pitch. Bit like when Scottish players weren't in close contact with their own player but some English players had to isolate.

 

[inbetween]

15% of all cases were Asymptomatic anyways with Covid. Not sure you can read anything into 1 case being asymptomatic at this point.

Hopefully a sign the vaccine still helped but cant tell from 1 data point.

Either way, if the reported 500% more infectious thing is accurate its going to become globally dominant in a few months so we're gonna know one way or another.

I agree but the infectivity of this thing has always been a problem but that is in a pre-vaccine world, today there will be perhaps 50,000 cases in the UK and only a tiny minority will result in hospitalisation or death. The latter two is the only thing we're interested in and there is zero data on it yet.

At the moment this thing is being reported as a vaccine buster, however I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion yet. Almost every known case involving a vaccinated person has so far been seemingly asymptomatic, IE, 100% efficacy (as far as we know).

So really the stance can only remain the same, the vaccines will still prevent the most serious symptoms and death in most cases so get your boosters if you can.

We do need to be cautious but there's no need for alarm yet.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

I agree but the infectivity of this thing has always been a problem but that is in a pre-vaccine world, today there will be perhaps 50,000 cases in the UK and only a tiny minority will result in hospitalisation or death. The latter two is the only thing we're interested in and there is zero data on it yet.

At the moment this thing is being reported as a vaccine buster, however I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion yet. Almost every known case involving a vaccinated person has so far been seemingly asymptomatic, IE, 100% efficacy (as far as we know).

So really the stance can only remain the same, the vaccines will still prevent the most serious symptoms and death in most cases so get your boosters if you can.

We do need to be cautious but there's no need for alarm yet.

Very good reasoned post.

 

[grunge]

I agree but the infectivity of this thing has always been a problem but that is in a pre-vaccine world, today there will be perhaps 50,000 cases in the UK and only a tiny minority will result in hospitalisation or death. The latter two is the only thing we're interested in and there is zero data on it yet.

At the moment this thing is being reported as a vaccine buster, however I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion yet. Almost every known case involving a vaccinated person has so far been seemingly asymptomatic, IE, 100% efficacy (as far as we know).

So really the stance can only remain the same, the vaccines will still prevent the most serious symptoms and death in most cases so get your boosters if you can.

We do need to be cautious but there's no need for alarm yet.

Agreed im not sure how they can work out the vaccine buster side of things until there is hard data. unless the experts know the spike protein has changed to a relatively unrecognisable state compared to what the vaccines were made with.

Give it a week and we'll know one way or another.

 

[Healdplace]

This was recently released by Biontech on that point you raised about knowing the properties of this new variant-

BioNTech, the German company that developed the first Covid vaccine, has said it is closely studying B.1.1.529, the new variant from South Africa, and will have conclusive data from laboratory tests in two weeks at the latest.

A spokesman for the company told the German daily Bild that it would then be in a position to see whether or not its current vaccine had to be adjusted to tackle it.

The spokesman said:

That is better than I feared. Thank you.

 

[Healdplace]

Agreed im not sure how they can work out the vaccine buster side of things until there is hard data. unless the experts know the spike protein has changed to a relatively unrecognisable state compared to what the vaccines were made with.

Give it a week and we'll know one way or another.

That is what the scientists are worried by - the sheer number of changes and the focus of many of them on the parts of the spikes that our vaccines depend upon to stop it getting past our immune system.

If I understood the stories yesterday they think an immuno suppressed person might have incubated it by accident though no idea how that would work or if it makes a difference as to the likelihood it can bypass vaccines.

I have no doubt we can tweak vaccines to get around it but it could not be a worse time in the UK for this to come - Christmas, open again, young families catching what we have and mixing with older ones more vulnerable to lower efficacy of vaccines the most in coming weeks and the weather driving all indoors, It is going to be Spring before we have any reasonable chance of fighting back significantly and the efficacy of the vaccines we have now are crucial to how we get through it as I agree we are not going to stop this regardlessof its threat potential if it is as infectious as evidence suggests.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Im ok thanks mate, but yep its a joke, best part of two weeks off work with no pay and these clowns find a way to fiddle it, what happens when every other idiot cottons on to this and starts doing the same?

How have you been? Apart a mild cough/cold and a dry chest, I've just been really tired. I've managed to get a fortnights sleep for me, in a week. Wish I could carry that part forward !

 

[True_Blue69]

I agree but the infectivity of this thing has always been a problem but that is in a pre-vaccine world, today there will be perhaps 50,000 cases in the UK and only a tiny minority will result in hospitalisation or death. The latter two is the only thing we're interested in and there is zero data on it yet.

At the moment this thing is being reported as a vaccine buster, however I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion yet. Almost every known case involving a vaccinated person has so far been seemingly asymptomatic, IE, 100% efficacy (as far as we know).

So really the stance can only remain the same, the vaccines will still prevent the most serious symptoms and death in most cases so get your boosters if you can.

We do need to be cautious but there's no need for alarm yet.

That doesn’t make for a good headline though does it. If it turns out to be nothing it will just fade out of the news like it never happened. From what I can see the only think they think they know, is that it’s more contagious. Is that even confirmed?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That doesn’t make for a good headline though does it. If it turns out to be nothing it will just fade out of the news like it never happened. From what I can see the only think they think they know, is that it’s more contagious. Is that even confirmed?

All that is confirmed is that the variant is rapidly spreading in SA, and much faster than delta.

That could mean that it's more transmissible and outcompeting delta, that it's got a degree of immune escape so infecting vaccinated or earlier infected people more than delta, or that there just isn't much delta there, so there isn't anything much to compete against - the "founder effect".

And it could be some of all of these.

I think the main reason for concern is the speed at which it's taken over from delta so far. That, plus the apparently large number of mutations suggests the degree of immune escape could be high.

The 500% more transmissible soundbite is very, very unlikely to be true.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

 

[grunge]

That doesn’t make for a good headline though does it. If it turns out to be nothing it will just fade out of the news like it never happened. From what I can see the only think they think they know, is that it’s more contagious. Is that even confirmed?

As with every key variant that has occurred ( Alpha and Delta ) its a good few weeks before we will know for sure, we were certainly right to add the red list travel blocks.

I think the main cause for concern is the fact that one of the many mutations this has is the same as the older south African variant ( C.1.2 ) that did have a knock on to he vaccine efficacy.

That mixed with the fact the spike protein has mutated dramatically compared to the original that the vaccines were based on is why there is concern. it was always a risk where a vaccine only uses the 1 part of the virus.

we'll know soon enough one way or another.

 

[BlueAnorak]

All that is confirmed is that the variant is rapidly spreading in SA, and much faster than delta.

That could mean that it's more transmissible and outcompeting delta, that it's got a degree of immune escape so infecting vaccinated or earlier infected people more than delta, or that there just isn't much delta there, so there isn't anything much to compete against - the "founder effect".

And it could be some of all of these.

I think the main reason for concern is the speed at which it's taken over from delta so far. That, plus the apparently large number of mutations suggests the degree of immune escape could be high.

The 500% more transmissible soundbite is very, very unlikely to be true.

- Original R0 = 2.07 (ave)
- Alpha R0 = 3.31 (ave)
- Delta R0 = 5.08 (ave)

500% more infectious than Delta would give it an R0 of of 25+
Every supression measure except a Noddy Suit (NBC Suit) would be ineffective unles .previous infection reduced the effective R0 dramatically
R0 = 25 is twice as infectious as Measles. The spread of Measles is only stopped by herd immunity.

 

[grunge]

- Original R0 = 2.07 (ave)
- Alpha R0 = 3.31 (ave)
- Delta R0 = 5.08 (ave)

500% more infectious than Delta would give it an R0 of of 25+
Every supression measure except a Noddy Suit (NBC Suit) would be ineffective unles .previous infection reduced the effective R0 dramatically
R0 = 25 is twice as infectious as Measles. The spread of Measles is only stopped by herd immunity.

The tweet said 500% more than original rather than delta. but even then seems off. but then at r0 of 2 ( alwasy thought it was 3) thats increasing it to 10 which isn't out of the realms of possibility. But the article said Delta was 70% over the Original which doesn't add up here either.

unless "competitively infectious" is a different measurement entirely which is also possible :)

 

[BlueAnorak]

1st case detected in Europe. in Belgium. No information if this is a returning traveller.

So the EU will ban all travel from Belgium to the rest of the EU then?

 

[inchy14]

62, AZ, after two bouts of COVID, felt knackered after the first one but fine after the second. Pfizer booster on Derby Day, played golf day after but no energy and a little sore in the arm, in bed early, a bit tired the day after golf but fine after that, go for it.

Had it earlier and feel fine, not really got the sore arm either

 

[BlueAnorak]

The tweet said 500% more than original rather than delta. but even then seems off. but then at r0 of 2 ( alwasy thought it was 3) thats increasing it to 10 which isn't out of the realms of possibility. But the article said Delta was 70% over the Original which doesn't add up here either.

unless "competitively infectious" is a different measurement entirely which is also possible :)

R0 = 10.35 (ave) is still devastating. Even with severe restrictions you couldn't get the effective R0 much below 3

 

[mccity]

Hopefully this strain traded in some severity and lethality points for a load of infectiousness points.

 

[Gaz76]

How have you been? Apart a mild cough/cold and a dry chest, I've just been really tired. I've managed to get a fortnights sleep for me, in a week. Wish I could carry that part forward !

Hopefully your over the worst of it mate, me Ive been fine, had maybe two or three days where i felt hangover like symptoms but been fine since, just being in the same room for ten days is a bit tedious, but ive been exercising using what I have(weights etc) once an hour most days and that makes a difference, surprising how quick a day goes!!
Just done a test now and Im still positive so not sure if I can come out, although my brief research says its quite common.... Unless your name is eddie howe