Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Scotland however have updated just now from Nicola Sturgeon.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

3 deaths - was 0 last week

221 cases - was 259 last week

1.6% positivity - was 2.0% last week

133 patients - down 21 since yesterday - was 196 last week

20 ventilated icu - down 1 since yesterday - was 21 last week


The hospital data here has really started tumbling again. A one third fall in patients in a week whilst numbers are so low is very impressive.

The UK might just make sub 2000 patients this week at this rate.

 

[Cityfan]

Difference in deaths from last week inScotland is probably meaningless as last week was reflecting the Easter weekend into Easter Monday when registry offices are usually closed.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland Vaccination Update:

2, 682, 706 first doses given - 13, 983 today - was 11, 145 yesterday & 12, 536 last week

605, 126 second doses given - 14, 952 today - was 21, 299 yesterday & 7406 last week

Nicola Sturgeon reports that 'virtually all' over 60 have had a vaccine

And so have 96% of those aged 55 to 59 and 84% of those aged 50 to 54.

Over 60%of the adult population in Scotland have now had at least one dose.

 

[Healdplace]

Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Of course, it must be. Because over 62% of those testing positive now and creating cases are under 40 and largely not vaccinated.

The reduction in patients and deaths are another matter as they are mostly driven by the older age ranges where numbers have tumbled.

But Boris stating boldly and not explaining this is already creating some comments about a change of tune.

The truth behind this message needs clarifying. Before it makes younger people think- if the vaccines are not working well enough to end lockdown then why should I bother?

Hope this does not turn into another messaging misstep.

 

[Healdplace]

Difference in deaths from last week inScotland is probably meaningless as last week was reflecting the Easter weekend into Easter Monday when registry offices are usually closed.

Yes, I have been pointing that out all weekend in the comparisons and often cited two weeks back as a fairer comparison but decided not to do so again today as last Tuesday often saw some catch up reporting from previous days across the weekend so the difference was not as clear cut in case numbers.

But the death data in the UK did see an extra day or so delay in the Easter catchup versus the usual weekend catch up that always occurs - Easter or not. So what you say is true.

Scotland TWO weeks ago had 411 new cases at 2.8% positivity and 12 deaths - versus today 221 - 1.6% - 3 deaths today.

THAT is a big fall by any measure in two more clearly comparable numbers. Patients were then two weeks ago 250 versus 133 today - so almost halved in 14 days.

 

[RobMCFC]

Looks like some of those taking the J&J vaccine may be suffering similar side effects to AZ - Officials in the US are calling for a pause in its use.

 

[paulchapo]

Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Of course, it must be. Because over 62% of those testing positive now and creating cases are under 40 and largely not vaccinated.

The reduction in patients and deaths are another matter as they are mostly driven by the older age ranges where numbers have tumbled.

But Boris stating boldly and not explaining this is already creating some comments about a change of tune.

The truth behind this message needs clarifying. Before it makes younger people think- if the vaccines are not working well enough to end lockdown then why should I bother?

Hope this does not turn into another messaging misstep.

I have just seen this, I don't believe a word that comes out of this man's mouth, or the government. He's pushing for everyone to get jabbed then for what reason? If predominantly only lockdowns work then what is the point?

 

[Healdplace]

I have just seen this, I don't believe a word that comes out of this man's mouth, or the government. He's pushing for everyone to get jabbed then for what reason? If predominantly only lockdowns work then what is the point?

The truth is as I noted he just did not explain properly. He was telling the truth - cases likely will rise as we reopen - just waffling around it so much the message that came out was misleading and misguided.

The vaccination is not the main reason cases are low. But he ought to have made clear it IS why hospital data and deaths have flatlined and THAT matters much more right now.

It is the advisors I blame. The messaging through the pandemic has been a shambles at times.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Johnson is right (could be the first time I've ever written that), and I've posted to that effect a number of times.

Most of the drop to date is due to the lockdown rather than the vaccine.

Compare the the USA: same vaccine takeup (near as dammit), 3x reduction in cases vs our 20x reduction (very approximate figures).

The vaccine didn't drive most of the reduction, but does allow us to open up.

Most modelling points to a potential significant surge if we just open up now. Not certain, but potential.

That said, the impact of lockdown and vaccines has been far better than I dared hope, so I wouldn't be against an acceleration, if things are still in the right direction in another three weeks or so.