Coronavirus (2021) thread

[unicorn]

Johnson is right (could be the first time I've ever written that), and I've posted to that effect a number of times.

Most of the drop to date is due to the lockdown rather than the vaccine.

Compare the the USA: same vaccine takeup (near as dammit), 3x reduction in cases vs our 20x reduction (very approximate figures).

The vaccine didn't drive most of the reduction, but does allow us to open up.

Most modelling points to a potential significant surge if we just open up now. Not certain, but potential.

That said, the impact of lockdown and vaccines has been far better than I dared hope, so I wouldn't be against an acceleration, if things are still in the right direction in another three weeks or so.

Question in ignorance - does the vaccine stop you actually getting the virus in a way that would be picked up as a positive case, or does it just ensure that if you get it you don't get (very) ill ?

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

In Chile, we're learning the hard way that record Covid vaccinations don't mean the end of the pandemic (inews.co.uk)

They went big with the Chinese vaccine and vaccinated a fair amount of people. Real world data there are better vaccines out there at the moment.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Question in ignorance - does the vaccine stop you actually getting the virus in a way that would be picked up as a positive case, or does it just ensure that if you get it you don't get (very) ill ?

It reduces the risk of both, but neither to zero.

The headline efficacy figures quoted are actually neither - that is the reducing in your likelihood of showing symptoms and tested positive.

So it's all rather confusing.

 

[03 March 2002]

Question in ignorance - does the vaccine stop you actually getting the virus in a way that would be picked up as a positive case, or does it just ensure that if you get it you don't get (very) ill ?

Vaccines are basically a controlled introduction for the various elements of our immune systems to encounter the virus. They prepare the 'memory' parts of our immune system for an encounter, should that encounter happen. There's no definitive way to say you won't get (very) ill, it's subjective upon your own immune system, but by and large, you shouldn't get (very) ill as you'll be able to recognise the assault and counter the viral load before it becomes overwhelming.

Whether it's picked up as a positive is a matter of the sensitivity of the test used. If it's sensitive enough to detect just 1 particle then you'll get a positive, if the limit of detection is say 10^4 and you've only got 10^3 then you'll show as negative. The good news is that the PCR test is one of the most sensitive tests on the planet so we are fortunate.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

My argument is not with this but that creating a battle of the vaccines as to which is best is eroding confidence and inferring this IS a choice when often it is not.

Vastly different from the annual flu vaccine where nobody has the faintest idea who makes what you are given or its stats relative to anything else. As such you have THE jab or do not.

We have engineered a situation where the concept of being vaccinated is now about consumerism and choice of which is best. Not necessity to help protect you without thinking.

I fear that may have long term implications for all future vaccination programmes beyond Covid.

I agree with you up to a point and especially about knowing the vaccine brands.

I think most people would still take any of the approved vaccines, although they’re level of media coverage can add to people’s anxieties. There’s also been plenty of cooperation between scientists, some vaccine manufacturers and some Governments. Some politicians and media commentators have been less helpful.

 

[Marvin]

I think the short answer is "bad luck" - this was impossible to predict prior to the rollout and could have been the other way around.

I've read that the driver is an immune reaction to platelets: "vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia"

Which, I'm sure you will agree, nicely explains everything (!)

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

The link between adenovius vectors and blood clotting was in the literature about a decade ago. Very surprising that the experts didn't know about it. They must have done.

 

[unicorn]

Vaccines are basically a controlled introduction for the various elements of our immune systems to encounter the virus. They prepare the 'memory' parts of our immune system for an encounter, should that encounter happen. There's no definitive way to say you won't get (very) ill, it's subjective upon your own immune system, but by and large, you shouldn't get (very) ill as you'll be able to recognise the assault and counter the viral load before it becomes overwhelming.

Whether it's picked up as a positive is a matter of the sensitivity of the test used. If it's sensitive enough to detect just 1 particle then you'll get a positive, if the limit of detection is say 10^4 and you've only got 10^3 then you'll show as negative.

Very helpful, thanks (and @Healdplace ).

Irrespective of their actual response to the virus once vaccinated, would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though ? i.e. would we expect to still see positive daily cases even if we were all fully vaccinated ?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The link between adenovius vectors and blood clotting was in the literature about a decade ago. Very surprising that the experts didn't know about it. They must have done.

I think all RNA treatments are linked to thrombocytopenia too?

So arguably equally likely to be a problem for RNA vaccines?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though

Yes, but much less likely.

For instance, the Pfizer vaccine was quoted in clinical trials as 95% effective; that means for every 20 people who showed symptoms and tested positive on the placebo, one did on the vaccine.

There are also figures around now for people who are asymptomatic but test positive. The vaccines reduce that substantially too, don't recall figures.

 

[03 March 2002]

Very helpful, thanks (and @Healdplace ).

Irrespective of their actual response to the virus once vaccinated, would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though ? i.e. would we expect to still see positive daily cases even if we were all fully vaccinated ?

I would expect someone who is vaccinated to be able to generate a positive test result. The hope is that they wouldn't, but many factors are at play. If you're infected with relatively low viral load, your immune system may supress it quickly, if you're infected with a high viral load, it may take your immune system longer to combat it, hence a positive result.
Even this example is rudimentary, there are so many factors at play.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Just up the road from me. I was wondering about the Grey Horse. Do you have to book?

Nope just turn up. All seemed pretty well organised yesterday.

Which is more than I can say for town. I work in the northern quarter and Stevenson Sq was chaos by 4pm.

 

[Len Rum]

Boris has just said he will NOT accelerate the road map for exit as the majority of the drop in cases is caused by the lockdown and not the vaccine.

Of course, it must be. Because over 62% of those testing positive now and creating cases are under 40 and largely not vaccinated.

The reduction in patients and deaths are another matter as they are mostly driven by the older age ranges where numbers have tumbled.

But Boris stating boldly and not explaining this is already creating some comments about a change of tune.

The truth behind this message needs clarifying. Before it makes younger people think- if the vaccines are not working well enough to end lockdown then why should I bother?

Hope this does not turn into another messaging misstep.

Correction to your post.
He did not refer to cases only in his statement.
He said the reduction in HOSPITALISATIONS, DEATHS AND INFECTIONS is due to the lockdown and not the vaccination programme.
IMO the lockdown has got us to the low numbers we are currently experiencing across the board and the vaccine is now keeping the numbers down.
In European countries their problem is they are vaccinating while the disease is accelerating whereas we are vaccinating when it is in decline.
On this rare occasion I believe BloJo's statements is correct, but he has made it mainly for political reasons as he is now seeking to underplay his earlier statements (also political) about the vaccine success as he is worried that people are becoming too relaxed and complacent in the post lockdown period.He's also concerned about vaccine resistant variants getting a foothold in the unvaccinated population.
Again mixed and confused messaging for political reasons.

 

[Manc in London]

Morrison's Dunkinfield around 4:30 yesterday. Three girls, two lads, mid to late teens, all together, no distancing, no masks, gobby shites. The Asian Security guard (about mid twenties) came into the store and asked them to leave as they were breaking the rules. One of the girls said she had panic attacks, Security man said it doesn't stop you social distancing. Next thing, interfering woman joins the argument, puts her arm round the girl and tells her not to leave the store. I politely tell her the Security man is doing his job and it's nothing to do with her, she replies:

"He's fucking grooming these kids, fuck off"

She's not representative of her age group but racism amongst morons does still exist.

I must add the young group detached themselves from the woman, when I left the store I could see them having a calm conversation outside with a couple of Managers, hopefully they may have learned a lesson.

That's Ducki for you. :)

 

[Healdplace]

If indeed it is lockdown that has got us where we are and the vaccinations are just keeping the numbers down then I fear a lot of people are going to be very unhappy when we inevitably have to go back into another lockdown in six months time maybe. Nobody wants that approaching Christmas again.

The key to vaccine efficacy is the change in the age ranges of those catching it. This infers they do their job . Which never was to eradicate Covid and stop everyone catching it - impossible now as it is jut too infectious - though that is widely not understood.

What matters is they keep the most vulnerable at a low level and mitigate the symptoms like now so we will reduce the stress on the NHS even in Winter.

Covid is not disappearing even with near 100% vaccinated. We will be re vaccinating for some years I suspect to keep on top of variants before it might find a low death/high infectivity variant that thrives and we can live with. But like we luve with colds because they are very infective but not especially harmful.

Indeed I have a hunch that we will get there with new medications that mitigate Covid if you get it into not much worse than a cold. That WOULD be the real game changer alongside the impact of the vaccines which will never be total.

Constant vaccinations will likely drive more variants that seek to get around them as much of the world is possibly 2 - 3 years from being vaccinated. So in a sense we hope we find a variant that thrives and we can endure and if we find the right drugs to treat might allow us more freedom than a constant war with Covid variants would

 

[inbetween]

Very helpful, thanks (and @Healdplace ).

Irrespective of their actual response to the virus once vaccinated, would you expect someone vaccinated to be able to still test positive though ? i.e. would we expect to still see positive daily cases even if we were all fully vaccinated ?

Yes they would test positive. PCR tests detect viral DNA (a bit more complicated than this though) which will be present in an infection whether you've had a vaccine or not.

 

[Healdplace]

That story from Chile posted earlier is obviously concerning - BUT three big caveats.

They are more or less where we were in vaccinating when cases and deaths were much higher than now.

They are using a different vaccine whose efficacy is less clear.

And they are heading into Winter when Covid is going to be more dangerous and easier to spread.

And they are batting the British variant (atop the South Africa one) that we had in our mid winter and created mayhem for a time before lockdown and vaccinations took off.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Looks like some of those taking the J&J vaccine may be suffering similar side effects to AZ - Officials in the US are calling for a pause in its use.

Research scientists are pretty sure there's a relationship between the AZ vaccine and the Adrenovirus that carries the vaccine payload as the stats are so similar.
If the J&J vaccine adverse reaction stats are similar to AZ then it would be another confirmatory indicator.
Regulators away from the UK seem to be more keen on having a totally safe vaccine rather than stopping people dying of Covid-19.
For reference:
Chance of having an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/250,000
Chance of dying from an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/1,000,000
Chance of drowning in your bath = 1/685,000
Chance of being killed by a cow in the UK = 1/942,000
Chance of dying drinking 0.5 litres of wine = 1/1,000,000
Chance of dying in a road traffic accident this year = 1/35,720

Note: the chance of dying from an encounter with a cow on the continent is higher because UK breeds are generally more docile.

Cattle Safety

Walkers need safe footpaths

killercows.co.uk

 

[BlueAnorak]

The African Union backed out of purchasing the AZ / Oxford vaccine (because of blood clots) to pursue buying J&J. Hopefully, the African Union aren’t going round in circles and have proper plans to protect their populations.

They did that because they didn't think the AZ vaccine was as efficacious for the SA variant- not for any other reason. They seem to have ignored the near 100% protection from death bit.

 

[inbetween]

Research scientists are pretty sure there's a relationship between the AZ vaccine and the Adrenovirus that carries the vaccine payload as the stats are so similar.
If the J&J vaccine adverse reaction stats are similar to AZ then it would be another confirmatory indicator.
Chance of dying in a road traffic accident this year =
Regulators away from the UK seem to be more keen on having a totally safe vaccine rather than stopping people dying of Covid-19.
For reference:
Chance of having an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/250,000
Chance of dying from an AZ vaccine blood clot = 1/1,000,000
Chance of drowning in your bath = 1/685,000
Chance of being killed by a cow in the UK = 1/942,000
Chance of dying drinking 0.5 litres of wine = 1/1,000,000
Chance of dying in a road traffic accident this year = 1/35,720

Note: the chance of dying from an encounter with a cow on the continent is higher because UK breeds are generally more docile.

At the moment how many people are dying of COVID in the under 30's? How many have even died in the last 3 months?

This is the perfect time to be highly selective of the vaccines we use as we learn more about them.

 

[Healdplace]

Yes they would test positive. PCR tests detect viral DNA (a bit more complicated than this though) which will be present in an infection whether you've had a vaccine or not.

Agreed, and I was not ignoring you on this - Unicorn - but I just post the data. I am no expert. There are far more qualified people to comment on these things doing so in here so I am simply deferring to them to reply as I would only be making guesses.