Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
Death figures in the UK to become horribly skewed in January.
908 people die a day on average in the UK.
If a large number of these catch Covid then they will be counted as Covid deaths. Even if it was just a sniffle
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I made this point last year. It's a never ending cycle until they change how they record or use the data to make policy (see link below)

COVID-19 — Coronavirus
 
BlueAnorak said:
Death figures in the UK to become horribly skewed in January.
908 people die a day on average in the UK.
If a large number of these catch Covid then they will be counted as Covid deaths. Even if it was just a sniffle
Click to expand...

Essentially this is just more whataboutery.

It's been the case all through the pandemic that there is a proportion of deaths that will initially be incorrectly attributed.

Equally, there are people who will die after 28 days who are wrongly excluded on the headline figure.

Overall, this doesn't skew the data, as you can see by death certificate and excess deaths data.

The only way this will become more of a problem with omicron is if it's factors less severe. In which case, it won't be a problem. Because hospital numbers won't go up.
 
Bluewonder said:
It's more like 1,500 deaths per day on average and this rises a little in mid-winter.
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What are we talking about? Flu, Pneumonia?
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roubaixtuesday said:
The only way this will become more of a problem with omicron is if it's factors less severe. In which case, it won't be a problem. Because hospital numbers won't go up.
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Yes - TOTAL hospital numbers (for any cause).

So if there's 11000 people in hospital today and 11000 people in hospital on 16 Jan then great! As long as we are aware that another 8000 of them may now be 'with' covid and so be recorded as covid patients. You are right that the absolute / excess numbers will tell us more.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Almost certainly not the peak - looks like a last day reporting issue. Very common with this sort of data.
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If you go into the NICD daily surveillance report and look at Gauteng, the province containing 25% of their population, you can see definite signs of a slow down in the rate of growth.
 
davealvers said:
Yes - TOTAL hospital numbers (for any cause).

So if there's 11000 people in hospital today and 11000 people in hospital on 16 Jan then great! As long as we are aware that another 8000 of them may now be 'with' covid and so be recorded as covid patients. You are right that the absolute / excess numbers will tell us more.
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Hospital admissions are already on the rise and as these lag tested by up to a week we just hope that hospital admissions will level off and not rise with the new variant. But of hope and pray by the government.
 
More than 100,000 planned operations could be cancelled in England this winter amid surging Omicron cases, according to a new study.

Using computer modelling, researchers predict 22,147 procedures could be cancelled each week across December, January and February if COVID hospital admissions reach the same levels as April 2020.
 
Tonster said:
They were talking average deaths per day in UK
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K. Yes, this is a problem in terms of what we communicate and how. It does need talking about.

But realistically, we're already running hot on excess deaths since the summer. COVID can explain most but not all.


The ONS graph is a little 'kinder' to our approach since the summer but not very, and I've lost the link.

For me it all reaffirms the sillyness of the short term panic approach. Taking more people away from health and social services for a push on boosters maybe makes more sense politically than in terms of outcomes. Publicly shouting that GPs are expected to lead the drive has certainly tempered my expectation of getting an appointment I probably do need.

There are many problems with having politicians drive health policy so hands on.

Whilst we're having the discussion on numbers, it remains reasonable in my mind to imagine people dying with COVID who are not diagnosed. Do they test routinely, in every case? Is that possible? Surely not.
 
Marvin said:
If you go into the NICD daily surveillance report and look at Gauteng, the province containing 25% of their population, you can see definite signs of a slow down in the rate of growth.
Click to expand...

Yes, absolutely. Just that the overall SA number on that graph final day drop is almost certainly an artefact.
 
How long after a booster jab does it take to bed into your body and actually give the full protection intended?

With the first 2 jabs there was a lot of talk about this period to wait for immunity to kick in but with the booster I've not seen this mentioned once
 
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