Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Laurus school in Cheadle hulme, whole of year 9 sent home to isolate for ten days after outbreak of positive tests. That’s a lot of kids stuck in again.
 
Blue and still suffering said:
Do you think that the number of cases today is as result of the delays over the bank holiday?
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It will have had some impact and 100 or so were because of the mishap in Scotland cases lost in a lab somewhere yesterday and added today. So it was not as bad as it might appear given those things.

Positivity in England is still falling so the overall picture is still good.
 
Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 67 to 224 v 181

London down 26 to 252 v 307

South East UP 57 to 252 v 250

South West down 9 to 120 v 144



Up and down




MIDLANDS

East up 95 to 257 v 196 (Biggest rise of the day and up week to week)

West down 8 to 186 v 125 (Another week week to week rise)



NORTH

North East down 8 to 97 v 94 (Still lowest region).


Yorkshire UP 69 to 406 v 367 (Remains largest region and over 400 again).




NORTH WEST UP 51 to 371 v 314.

Not far behind Yorkshire and up week to week



GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 17 day to day (out of NW rise of 51 - which is good and below expected) but UP 27 week to week - about right for the expected half of the NW rise of 57). So overall not a bad day for GM in the context of not an especially good one for the NW .
 
Bluemoon dan said:
I see that the reporter for the MEN has finally cottoned on to the increases in Bolton now. Only a week or so after it was highlighted in here. Am tempted to send her a link to this thread so she can keep up with @Healdplace updates!

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I hope someone tipped them off and I am just relieved finally someone is waking up to this.

Though as I posted then the BBC NW had spotted it yesterday.

In many ways I hope they just used the same things I do to spot this (they are not top secret) because the official data lags by several days as a consequence of how it works and so why this was largely missed. But also why I do not rely on that 6 day old info only to track events that you need to know day to day.

I see why the official data is what it is and it adds nuance but watching for spikes needs an early warning not a bomb went off the day before yesterday set up.

In all seriousness I very much doubt the media take stuff from here as a football forum is not where they are ever likely to look. But it does not matter how they finally saw it just relieved they did. It is certainly well over the level they will be seeing from last week's official data.

That Bolton Weekly Pop score in the paper btw is bad but days old and it has just carried on going up. The number they cite is days ago. It is well over 100 today.

They are having a meeting tomorrow to discuss surge testing it seems - something they really should hae been doing days ago.

It is genuinely worrying though if a football forum is more in the know on the pandemic than GM politicians have been for about a week.

Bolton's cases from about when this spiking will be showing up in the 6 day old data have gone:-

29 - 32 - 41 - 45 - 44 - 57 - 61 - a very clear path and already double where they were in the 5 / 6 day old official numbers.

I really hope they did see this earlier and are not waiting until tomorrow to chat then act.
 
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ell said:
I really wish covid would have changed peoples mindsets in regards to "soldiering on" and going into work when sick. It really shouldn't be applauded.
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For the lowest paid members of society, it might be more to do with £95 pw sick-pay rather than soldiering on, something the government still don’t seem to acknowledge or be prepared to do anything about.....
 
Greater Manchester Cases


192 cases today - up 17 on yesterday.

And up 27 from 165 last Wednesday.




Bolton - had another bad day at 61 - that is up 4 on the day and 36 week to week. Biggest weekly increase in any GM borough in ages. Pop score up by 21 today was enough to send its Weekly Pop over 100 - the first time Bolton has been up that high in over 5 weeks. Way up top out front on its own but 5 weeks ago it was below Oldham - who have dropped steadily since and today are one of the best performers in GM with numbers a quarter of where they were when up that high in late March.


Manchester is down 1 to 33 and way behind and also down 2 from last week. So going in the right direction not the wrong one as Bolton still is doing.

Rochdale rising too and up 8 on 18 - which is up 6 week to week.

Salford also on 18 which is up 7 bit more hopefully down 9 on last wk.

Wigan up 1 to 16 - which is up 5 wk to wk.

Stockport had a better day down 5 to 13 which is nonetheless up 4 week to week so cost it points. LOST ground on Trafford again after two weeks of eating into its big overall Pop Score lead.

Oldham up 3 to 12 on the day - happily down 5 wk to wk

Tameside goes up by 4 to 10 which is the same Aas last week.


Only two boroughs in single numbers today. One usual suspect. One a welcome return.


Bury up 2 to 6- which is the same as last week

And reclaiming normality and top spot is:-

Trafford down 6 to just 5 - another big drop of 8wk to wk. Definitely look to be getting their numbers under control here as Zoe predicted.




Weekly total cases:-

Bolton top 300 cases for the past week and way beyond Manchester now. Trafford's improvement in past few days pushes it back under 100.Three boroughs bunched on 83 closing in on Stockport who have risen in a few days to look under threat of heading back over 100 themselves. Bury and Tameside still fighting it out for lowest weekly cases. Just 3 in it.


Bury 42, Tameside 45, Oldham 62, Stockport 80, Rochdale 83, Wigan 83, Salford 83, Trafford 90, Manchester 195, Bolton 309.
 
Can't get my head around what's going on in Bolton, Healdplace, so I can only imagine how you feel when looking at these numbers every day.

Something just doesn't sit right with me with regards to the more common explanations I've read, maybe I'm missing something. I just can't for the life of me understand why Bolton would have a lower vaccine uptake (one possible explanation put forward) than almost everywhere else in the UK. Demographic, population density, messaging, is it SO different? Surely not?

I'm sure the residents there read the same newspapers, use the same social media platforms, and watch the same news programmes as us so I just can't see why messaging etc would be any different to anywhere else.

Variant related? Time will tell, but these sort of situations are infuriating when there's little in the way of plausible explanation as yet.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 108 / 63 / UP 45 Testing positive 9.2%

Trafford 38 / 46 / DOWN 8 Testing positive 7.0 %

Rochdale 38 / 34 / UP 4 Testing positive 9.6%

Manchester 35 / 37 / DOWN 2 Testing positive 9.7%

Salford 32 / 42 / DOWN 10 Testing positive 9.0%

Stockport 27 / 22 / UP 5 Testing positive 7.2%

Oldham 26 / 38 DOWN 12 Testing positive 9.8%

Wigan 26 / 22 / UP 4 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 22 / 26 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%

Tameside 20 / 30 DOWN 10 Testing positive 8.2%



Bolton more ahead of the rest than I ever recall seeing a single GM borough before. 70 on top of Trafford with all other 9 boroughs in a group of just 18. This was appearing before our eyes over the past week and I hope it is not true the politicians all missed what we all could see happening.

Tameside goes further clear at top with half the boroughs in the 20s.

Stockport has slipped again and climbing up the table.

But nobody in really serious trouble and it is all relative to the low numbers all round.

Bolton excepted. Though not an irretrievable situation if action is taken fast (as in only a week late not two).
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Can't get my head around what's going on in Bolton, Healdplace, so I can only imagine how you feel when looking at these numbers every day.

Something just doesn't sit right with me with regards to the more common explanations I've read, maybe I'm missing something. I just can't for the life of me understand why Bolton would have a lower vaccine uptake (one possible explanation put forward) than almost everywhere else in the UK. Demographic, population density, messaging, is it SO different? Surely not?

I'm sure the residents there read the same newspapers, use the same social media platforms, and watch the same news programmes as us so I just can't see why messaging etc would be any different to anywhere else.

Variant related? Time will tell, but these sort of situations are infuriating when there's little in the way of plausible explanation as yet.
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Surprised nobody in the media is noting the comparison with last July/August when this happened in Bolton and spread and lead to the GM lockdown. Their numbers were sky high and above Manchester then too before the students returned. But cases spread from there to Wigan which was relaxed from the restrictions as it had very low numbers - like it has never seen since.

That August Bolton spike was clearly not vaccine related as there were none.

Nor obviously a new variant unless the one that hit elsewhere hit the NW first and was missed. Seems unlikely.

So demographics of the population seem most probable in some way.

I recall posting on here then about a local MP recording an interview for local BBC about this point in - after we had seen cases spike in here but the media had not as yet then either. When he gave an interview they explained that whoever this was ( I forget) had asked to re film the interview as he had misleadingly told them at first there was no spike in the town but in the few hours between the two had seen the data to discover there actually was.

But not it seems aware f it for days when we were in here.

Might be misremembering this but it will be in the archived thread if so I guess.

If we are going through exactly the same again where the people who need to know things like this appear not to know early enough then there really has to be an investigation into why they let it happen twice.
 
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03 March 2002 said:
Great news that you've managed to keep progressing. Do you think the waning of your long COVID symptoms is tied to getting the vaccine? I know that many have reported long COVID symptoms tailing off once they've been vaccinated.
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I was really hoping for an instant/next day alleviation from long covid after the jab, but this didn't happen (and that was hope based on a fair bit of anecdotal evidence).
However, within a week I was running again so there's a good chance it helped. Trailing off sounds about right.
I had started taking some more vids around the same time combined with breathing exercises, but I've a feeling the jab kickstarted the recovery too.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
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This really really annoys me. We’ve known for ages that there was a problem with variants in India, yet we kept letting planes of people come here. What am I missing about stopping international travel in the middle of a pandemic? What is so important to risk putting us back 6 or 9 months and put lives at risk?

This may also explain the spike in Bolton that appears to have been missed so far.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:



Better day in England with a fall of 56 patients in hospital versus 45 last week. And ventilators of 17 versus 10 last week. The other home nations fell too on both measures.

So the UK now has under 1200 in hospital and just 163 on ventilators. And England DID indeed go below 1000 by 24 meaning every nation is now in 3 figures or less. And hopefully within days so will be the combined numbers for all four. Just falls of 165 needed to get there.

The NW fared OK today in the fall in patients and ventilators. Only one area better. Things look to have settled back down.

13 September last time fewer were on ventilators in NW and 6 September last time fewer patients. A little ahead of the UK average time table slipping backwards into last Summer.



UK total:




Patients down to 1164 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 084 in 108 days) :- lowest since 18 September

Ventilators down to 163 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3914 in 102 days) : lowest since 19 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

76 Covid admissions following 98, 92, 68, 82, 81, 89, 128, in the week before.

As you see another low daily Covid admission number in England and under 100 a day for 7 straight days.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 56 to 976 v 1235 last week :- lowest since 16 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 360 in 108 days)

Ventilators: down 17 to 144 v 178 last week :- lowest since 20 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3592 in 102 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 7 to 83 v 127 // down 1 to 6 v 12

London down 1 to 283 v 339 // down 4 to 61 v 73

Midlands down 6 to 195 v 232 // stays at 28 v 30

NE & Yorks down 4 to 156 v 180 // down 1 to 23 v 18

North West down 12 to 166 v 196 // down 4 to 20 v 28

South East down 24 to 62 v 115 // down 6 to 3 v 12

South West down 2 to 31 v 46 // down 1 to 3 v 3
 
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Pretty obvious the ‘Indian’ variant will be the next major hurdle we have to overcome, whether that means another lockdown I have no idea
 
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